羅蘭德在中國城鎮化報告宣講會上的講話

Remarks by World Bank Country Director for China Klaus Rohland: Building More Efficient Cities in China
世界銀行中國局局長羅蘭德在中國城鎮化報告宣講會上的講話——“中國構建更高效城市”

ECOSOC Integration Segment
聯合國總部經社理事會會議廳

New York, United States
紐約，美國

May 28, 2014
2014年5月28日

Thank you, Dr. Clos, Ambassador Wang, Dr. Ba, for this wonderful event. As Dr. Ba has mentioned, our report, Urban China, was jointly produced by the Development Research Center and the World Bank over the last year. It follows on the heels of the China 2030 Report that DRC and the World Bank did two years ago. Both reports were done at the request of China’s leaders and we are proud of the excellent relationship and, dare I say, the friendship developed between the team members of the DRC and the World Bank over these years.
感謝克洛斯博士、王民大使、巴博士組織了此次宣講會。正如巴博士所言，《中國：推進高效、包容、可持續的城鎮化》報告由國務院發展研究中心（國研中心）和世行在過去一年中聯合編制。該報告是繼兩年前國研中心和世行聯合編寫的《2030年的中國》報告之後的又一重要報告。兩份報告均應中國政府領導人要求編寫。這些年來，國研中心團隊成員和世行團隊成員之間建立了良好關係，同時，請允許我冒昧地說，也建立了深厚友誼。我們對這一關係和友誼感到自豪。

Our cooperation has offered us a unique opportunity to bring local expertise and global knowledge together. DRC, as you all know, is a preeminent think tank in China under the State Council, with an impressive capacity for research and valuable insights into policy making in China. The World Bank can bring to the table its global knowledge about what has worked and what hasn’t in other countries. Fusing local and global knowledge and building on comparative advantages is the way ahead for the World Bank, as our client countries are getting ever more sophisticated. I believe that we have charted a path for new ways of doing business for international institutions through our work.
雙方的合作爲我們匯聚本地專業知識和全球知識提供了獨特契機。正如在座的諸位所知，國研中心是中國國務院下屬的一個卓越智庫，具備很強的政策研究能力和決策洞察力。世行能夠帶來其全球知識，介紹其它國家已奏效和未奏效的措施。隨着我們的借款客戶國變得愈發成熟且有經驗，融合本地知識和全球知識以及發揮其比較優勢將是世行今後採取的策略。我認爲，通過我們的工作，我們已經爲國際機構開展業務的新方式引領了路徑。

Let us talk about urbanisation in China. You are all aware of the facts. In the past 30 years, urbanisation has contributed enormously to economic growth and modernization in China. About 500 million people have been lifted out of poverty and about 260 million migrated to cities to seek better opportunities. Today, China’s mega cities have income levels comparable with those of some OECD countries. Importantly, China has avoided some of the common ills of urbanization, notably urban poverty, unemployment and squalor.
接下來，我談談中國的城鎮化。在座的各位都深諳實際情況。過去三十年來，城鎮化對中國經濟增長和現代化作出了巨大貢獻。約5億人脫貧，約2.6億人流入城市，尋找更好的就業和發展機會。如今，中國特大城市的收入水平與一些經合組織國家特大城市的收入水平相當。突出的一點是，中國成功地避免了城鎮化的一些常見病，尤其是城鎮貧困、失業和環境髒亂差等問題。

Urbanization has been a global phenomenon since the onset of the industrial revolution in the 18th century. In England, for example, the share of urban population rose from 17% at the beginning of the 19th century to 72% some 90 years later. Countries experience urbanization spurts, such as the United States of America, as well as England in the mid‑to‑late 19th century and Germany around the turn of the 19th to the 20th century. Urbanization rates increased in Japan later during the last century and in Korea after 1960. Sometime during the first decade of this century, the tide turned and more than 50% of the world’s population were living in cities. By 2050, it is projected that more than 60% of the developing world and a staggering 85% of the developed world will be urbanized.
城鎮化是18世紀工業革命以來的一個全球性現象。例如，英國城鎮人口占比從19世紀初的17%提高到90年後的72%。不少國家均經歷了“井噴式”城鎮化，譬如美國、19世紀中後期的英國以及19世紀和20世紀之交的德國。上世紀，日本城鎮化提速；1960年以後，韓國城鎮化也是如此。本世紀頭十年，城鎮化浪潮轉向發展中國家，全世界半數以上人口在城市居住。預計到2050年，發展中國家的城鎮化率將超過60%，發達國家將達到令人驚愕的85%。

The trend is clear. It is also unstoppable: all countries of the world will urbanize, each in their own ways and at their own pace, of course, but urbanize they will. And urbanisation does not happen by administrative fiat or by policy choice. The challenge for governments around the world is to manage it in such a way that their countries and their people benefit from it to the maximum possible. And that is also what the Prime Minister of China had in mind, when, in November 2013, he proposed that the DRC and World Bank work on urbanization.
城鎮化趨勢明朗，也不可阻擋：世界各國將通過各自路徑並以其自身速度實現城鎮化。城鎮化不會藉助行政命令或政策選擇而實現。世界各國政府面臨的挑戰在於有效管理城鎮化進程，使其國家和人民最大限度地從城鎮化受益。這一點也是中國國務院總理2013年11月建議國研中心和世行就城鎮化開展研究時的考慮。

Urbanization is linked to productivity growth. China’s economy needs this for its future economic development. Most of the observers agree: China’s growth model of the last 30 years has run its course. I would like to highlight three points to make the case.
城鎮化與生產率提高密切相關。中國未來經濟發展需要城鎮化。大多數觀察人士認爲，中國過去三十年來採用的增長模式已完成其使命。在此，我主要提三點來印證這一說法。

First, China, as it moves to the technological frontier, can no longer benefit from the advantages of backwardness, as it did in the last 30 years. Second, the demographic dividend of China—a young population with concomitant low labor cost—is also diminishing, as China’s demographic profile is turning. Within this decade, some say as early as 2016, more people will leave than enter the workforce. Needless to say, this will have huge implications for wages and increase labor cost. Fewer people will have to work more efficiently: Productivity will be the new source for economic growth. And productivity and its twin, innovation, are intrinsically linked to urban agglomerations.
首先，隨着中國逐步走向技術前沿，已不再能夠像過去三十年那樣從落後的優勢中受益。其次，中國的人口紅利——年輕人口與低勞動力成本並存——也在減少，因爲中國的人口結構正在轉變。在這個十年內，有些人認爲最早在2016年，更多人將脫離而不是加入勞動力隊伍。毋庸置疑，這將會對工資水平產生巨大影響，並將增加勞動力成本。勞動力減少後，人們就必須要提高工作效率：生產率將成爲新的經濟增長源。生產率及其孿生姊妹——創新與城鎮集羣密不可分。

Finally, China is also constrained by one overarching consideration: Climate change and the need for mitigation. Adaptation to global warming will limit its choices for growth. Earlier on, developed countries of today were ignorant of the dangers of climate change and built their progress on, what we by now know, unsustainable strategies. There is a limit to economic growth based on the exploitation of natural resources. Learning from this experience, before becoming rich, China has to shift to a new strategy to make sure that its development is sustainable for China, as well as for the rest of the world.
最後，中國也受到了一個首要考慮的制約：氣候變化及緩解其影響的必要性。適應全球變暖趨勢將限制其對增長方式的選擇。早年間，發達國家忽視了氣候變化的威脅，將其發展寄託在現在我們知道是不可持續的戰略之上。依託利用自然資源來發展經濟，則會制約經濟增長。基於這一經驗，在成爲富裕國家之前，中國必須要轉而採用新戰略，確保其發展具備可持續性，這不僅對其自身有益，對世界其它國家也將有益。

Sustainable urbanization is at the center of such a new strategy. It must address the problem of urban sprawl in China: its cities are growing much faster in space than in population. The effects are clear, as air pollution and its long-term effects have become a pressing concern for citizens. Traffic congestions are occurring daily in China’s metropolises, wasting energy and time. The cost of infrastructure, such as water supply, roads and public transportation, will rise to unsustainable levels. Efficient and sustainable spatial development will be a priority.
可持續城鎮化是這一新戰略的核心。可持續城鎮化必須要回應中國城市蔓延問題：中國城市空間增速大大快於城市人口增速。城市蔓延的影響顯而易見，因爲空氣污染及其長期影響已成爲市民的一大急需解決的問題。在中國的大都市，交通擁堵每天都在發生，不僅浪費了能源，也浪費了時間。供水、道路和公共交通等基礎設施的成本將增至不可持續的水平。高效、可持續的空間開發將成爲一大要務。

China’s urbanization also has come at a social cost. There is a growing welfare gap between urban and rural populations. The working young are moving into the cities, yet the old and the very young are left behind in the remote countryside, the villages and hamlets of rural China. If unattended, this gap may well turn into a chasm. There is another gap within cities, between those registered as citizens and those who have migrated to the city, with fewer rights and lesser access to public services.
中國的城鎮化也造成了社會代價。城鄉人口福利方面的差距不斷拉大。年輕的勞動適齡人羣流入城市，老人和兒童被留在偏遠鄉村。如不加以解決，這一差距很有可能變爲難以彌合的溝壑。在城市裏，在城市戶籍居民和外來人口中間也存在差距，後者獲得公共服務的權利和渠道較少。

Three considerations must therefore shape a new urbanization strategy. The urban economy should be efficient in productivity and innovation. It should provide social justice and equal access to social services, which will help address the rural‑urban inequality, as well as within‑city inequality. Also, the issue of sustainability looms large in the minds of the Chinese people.
因此，在形成新的城鎮化戰略之前，必須要考慮三大因素。城鎮經濟在生產率和創新方面應實現高效；城鎮經濟應保障社會公正和公共服務均等化，這將有助於縮小城鄉差異和城市內部差異；此外，可持續性問題已成爲中國人思考的重要問題。

Let me briefly outline the policy areas for reform that our study identifies. Some of those proposed reforms have already been announced by the Chinese government as policies, in parallel to our work. Indeed, as we worked on our ideas, there has been a constant exchange between policy makers and the study team. This was indeed policy advice in real time.
請允許我簡要介紹一下本報告提出的建議改革的政策領域。在我們開展研究工作的同時，部分改革建議已被中國政府所採納作爲政策宣佈。在我們研究過程中，在政府決策者和研究團隊之間有着頻繁的交流，實際是一種實時的政策建議。

The efficiency of cities is really about improving the density of cities. Sprawling urban conglomerations entail huge costs. Think of the infrastructure for roads, water, sewerage and public transportation. It also stands in the way of improving productivity and innovation, which require cooperation between research and production, between all economic sectors, to achieve a synergy, as well as a productive, well-educated workforce. Think of cities like Stockholm, Barcelona or the Boston metropolitan area, as good examples. All of these are intimately related to the spatial dimension of cities.
城市效率的真正內容是提高城市密度。不斷蔓延的城市集羣會產生巨大成本，如道路、供水和污水設施以及公共交通等基礎設施的成本，也會阻礙提高生產率和促進創新。提高生產率和促進創新需要研究與生產部門之間加強合作，各經濟部門之間加強合作，這樣才能做到協同一致，打造出高生產率、高素質的勞動力隊伍。斯德哥爾摩、巴塞羅那和波士頓等城市就是這方面的範例。所有這些都與城市的空間格局密切相關。It may come as a surprise to many, but Chinese cities are not dense. Guangzhou, for example, could accommodate 4.2 million more people, had it the density of Seoul in Korea. Actually, many modern Chinese cities have dense city cores. But beyond the third ring road in Beijing, the urban sprawl begins. And that is where density efficiencies can be achieved, and where they should be achieved.
中國城市密度不大，這一點可能會令許多人吃驚。例如，廣州要達到首爾的密度，還可以增加4200萬人。實際上，中國許多現代化城市的中心區密度較大。但是，以北京爲例，三環路以外的地區開始出現蔓延。此類蔓延區正是可以也應該提高密度效率的地區。

Smart density planning is a guiding consideration for internal city design. Think of the superblocks in Beijing, sometimes 500 meters wide. Their very existence reduces the number of traffic arteries, because they only allow for a limited amount of junctions and crossroads, thus causing widespread congestions. A finer grained network makes it much easier to manage traffic.
精明的密度規劃是內城設計的指導方針。以北京的超大街區爲例，其寬度有時可達500米。此類街區的存在減少了交通幹道的數量，因爲其只能允許設置有限的交叉路口，從而導致大範圍擁堵。更細密的路網大大便於管理交通。

The density of cities is also about more space for rural and agricultural land. There is a widespread assumption that China needs around 120 million hectares for food production. If China’s cities were to continue their urban sprawl, they would need to convert rural to urban a land area the size of the Netherlands over the next 14 years. That is clearly not sustainable. It would threaten the 120 million hectares red line.
城市密度增大也意味着爲農村用地和農業用地留有更大空間。有關人士普遍認爲，中國需要約1.2億公頃土地用於糧食生產。如果中國城市繼續蔓延，就需要在今後14年內把相當於荷蘭國土面積的農村用地轉爲城市用地。這樣做顯然不具備可持續性，還可能對1.2億公頃的耕地紅線構成威脅。

Inequality is the second challenge. That is where the issue of land reform comes in. Part of the reason for urban sprawl is that cities tend to finance their expenditures by converting rural land into urban use. In this process, cities compensate farmers at the price of agricultural land, convert it into urban land, sell it to developers at urban land prices, and take the difference to finance their expenditures. Farmers are rightly aggrieved, and their demand for better compensation has led to social tensions and manifestations. No wonder the bulk of social unrest in China occurs at the urban periphery, where these two land systems—the rural land system and the urban land system—collide.
不平等問題是第二大挑戰，而這正是土地制度改革的切入點。造成城市蔓延的部分原因在於城市往往通過把農村用地轉爲城市用地來爲其支出籌集資金。在這一過程中，城市按農業用地價格給農民補償，把農業用地轉爲城市用地，再按城市用地價格把農業用地賣給開發商，把差價用於爲其支出籌集資金。農民感到不滿意是情有可原的，他們對提高補償的要求導致了社會緊張和抗議。因此，中國大部分社會不穩定現象發生在城鄉結合部也就不足爲奇了，因爲這些地區正是兩種土地制度——農村土地制度和城市土地制度相互碰撞的地區。

In terms of policies in China, we propose to focus on farmers’ property rights, moving away from the dichotomy of urban land and rural land, and eventually, to a unified land system. There should be legal limits to land expropriation and eminent domain actions by local government. Fair and equitable compensation for expropriation would go a long way to redress grievances of farmers. From 1990 to 2010, local governments expropriated land at an estimated two trillion renminbi below the market value. Assuming that those 2 trillion would have generated returns similar to overall growth, farmers would have more than 5 trillion renminbi in household wealth by now.
就中國土地政策而言，我們提議把重點放在農民的土地產權之上，從城鄉土地二元制度逐步轉向實行統一的土地制度。應從法律上限制地方政府的徵地數量和徵地行爲。公平公正的徵地補償對處理農民的申訴發揮巨大作用。1990年至2010年間，地方政府以低於市場價格徵用的土地總金額約爲人民幣2萬億元。假設這2萬億元以類似於經濟總增長率的幅度產生收益，則到目前爲止，農戶家庭財產總值將超過5萬億元。

Inequality is an issue that is hotly discussed worldwide these days, as evidenced by the global success of Thoma Piketty’s book on Capital in the 21st century. It is also an issue in China: some urban residents are registered with the city hukou, a household registration system, and have access to public services, but migrants are left out. Things have somewhat improved over the years, and many cities are striving to provide social services for those migrant workers, but access overall is still restricted. We argue in our report that the hukou system needs to be abolished over time and access to services should be based on residency, not origin.
不平等是全世界近來熱議的一個問題，托馬斯·皮凱蒂所著《二十一世紀的資本》一書在全球的成功發行便印證了這一點。不平等也是中國的一個問題：城市戶籍居民能夠獲得公共服務，但外來人口卻被排除在外。這些年來，情況有了一定好轉，很多城市努力爲農民工提供社會服務，但總體而言，服務可及性仍受到限制。我們在報告中提出，戶籍制度應逐步廢除，服務應按照常住地而非戶籍所在地提供。

Sustainable urbanization needs to redress environmental deficiencies, air pollution and the degradation of land and water. We find that, by and large, China has good laws and regulations, comparable to those of many OECD countries. At issue is implementation, the weak capacity of environmental agencies, the single-minded myopic future on economic growth, which only now is given way to a new emphasis on the quality of growth, of life. Administrative boundaries of cities and provinces are no longer adequate enough to deal with the environmental degradation that goes beyond those boundaries. Beijing will not be able to handle air pollution on its own, since pollution there is mainly caused by the neighbouring Hebei province, for example.
可持續城鎮化需要解決環境缺陷、空氣污染、土地和水資源退化等問題。我們發現，中國有很好的環保法律法規，可以與許多經合組織國家的法律法規相媲美。問題在於執行不力、環保部門能力薄弱以及單純追求經濟增長的短視觀念。目前，這一觀念已開始讓位於一種新的對增長質量和人民生活質量的強調。以往的省市行政區劃已不再足以處理跨越行政區劃的環境退化問題。例如，北京僅憑自身力量無法解決空氣污染問題，因爲主要的污染源在相鄰的河北省。

How is all this going to be financed? China’s fiscal system needs comprehensive reforms. With better and stronger land rights for farmers, cities will lose revenues from land conversion. Cities need new sources of revenue. Now is the time to empower cities to find new sources of revenue, through property taxes or local surcharges on income taxes. Environmental levies, such as higher motor vehicle licence fees, pollution charges and cost recovery on utilities, will raise revenues while addressing environmental problems at the same time.
解決上述種種問題所需資金如何籌集？中國的財政制度需要進行全面改革。隨着農民土地權利的完善和加強，城市將失去土地出讓收入。城市需要新的收入來源。現在是賦權城市尋找新的收入來源的時候了，比如通過徵收不動產稅或所得稅地方附加費。通過提高機動車許可證費、排污費以及公用設施成本回收費等環境稅費，可以增加財政收入，同時還可以解決環境問題。

To finance long-term investments in infrastructure, there needs to be reforms of the financial system at the city level. Local government financing vehicles need to be brought in to reduce debt levels. Cities in good financial standing should also be allowed to issue their own bonds.
要爲基礎設施建設籌集長期投資，就要改革城市一級的財政制度。需要引入地方政府籌資工具來降低地方債務水平。應允許財政狀況良好的城市發行債券。

More efficient cities will yield major savings. At the current rate and without reforms, China’s cities will spend about $5 trillion on infrastructure over the next 15 years. In a reform scenario, China’s more efficient and denser cities may save some $1.4 trillion in infrastructure investments, more than enough to finance the expansion of health, education and low-income housing to cope with the influx of people. Shifting from the physical expansion of cities and infrastructure to delivering services to China’s citizens would truly be the people-oriented urbanization that is the ambition and aspiration of the third Plenary outcome from last November. And this is what we are proposing as well.
效率更高的城市可大大節省投資。從目前趨勢看，如不實行改革，中國城市今後十五年的基礎設施支出將達5萬億美元。如實行改革，效率更高、密度更大的中國城市可節省基礎設施投資約1.4萬億美元，足以用於擴大醫療衛生和教育服務以及保障性住房規模，從而應對人口的大量涌入。從擴大城市空間和基礎設施規模轉向對中國城市居民提供服務，將是真正意義上的“以人爲本”的城鎮化，這是去年11月召開的十八屆三中全會確定的宏偉藍圖，也是我們所建議的內容。

Thank you.
謝謝各位！