我國科學家創建近視眼人工智能預測模型

If you are concerned that your child will be nearsighted, a new artificial intelligence model could help predict whether your offspring will need glasses.

如果你擔心孩子會近視，一種新的人工智能系統可以幫助預測你的孩子是否需要佩戴眼鏡。

Myopia is the most common visual impairment in children, and China has an unprecedented rate of nearsightedness.

近視眼是兒童最常見的視力障礙，我國近視眼的發病率已經達到前所未有高峯。

A recent World Health Organization report showed that about 600 million Chinese, almost half the population, are nearsighted, including more than 70 percent of high school and college students, and 40 percent of primary school children.

世界衛生組織最近的一份報告顯示，中國約有6億人患有近視，幾乎佔總人口的一半，其中包括70%以上的高中生和大學生以及40%的小學生。

Current approaches to curbing vision loss include eyedrops, glasses, contact lenses and surgery.

目前控制視力下降的方法包括眼藥水、眼鏡、隱形眼鏡和手術。

However, while these can be effective, they have side effects, such as higher rates of recurrence, eye infections and other ailments.

雖然這些方法有效，但也有副作用，比如複發率高、造成眼睛感染和其他疾病。

If nearsightedness could be predicted, medical professionals could intervene with appropriate treatments to help reduce the risk of high myopia.

如果近視可以預測，醫務人員就可以進行適當的干預治療，降低高度近視的風險。

After analyzing 1.25 million eyesight records over three years, researchers from Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong province have identified myopia development rules, and built an AI model to predict the condition in children and teenagers.

廣東省中山大學中山眼科中心的研究人員在分析了過去三年125萬份視力記錄後，確定了近視的發展規律，並建立了人工智能模型來預測兒童和青少年的近視狀況。

The study, published in the international journal PLOS Medicine, involved children ages 5 to 18 who had eyesight checks from 2005 to 2015 in eight of the largest ophthalmic centers in the southern province.

這項研究發表在國際期刊《公共科學圖書館·醫學》上，研究對象是5歲至18歲的兒童，他們於2005年至2015年間在廣東省最大的8個眼科中心定期接受視力檢查。

The researchers discovered that nearsightedness usually occurs at age 7, and rapidly develops before age 10. It can grow to－3 diopters during the teenage years and up to－6 diopters in the 20s.

研究人員發現，學齡近視一般出現在7歲，在10歲之前迅速發展，青少年時期可以達到300度，20歲左右穩定在600度。

The researchers used age, the diopter and annual myopia progression rates as the main variables to develop an algorithm to predict degrees of myopia over 10 years and the possibility of high myopia before 18 years.

研究人員以年齡、屈光度和每年的近視進展率爲主要變量，開發了一種算法來預測孩子未來10年的近視程度和18歲之前高度近視的可能性。

To test the model, the developers fed it about 687,000 eyesight records of more than 129,000 people.

爲了測試這個模型，開發人員輸入了超過12.9萬人的68.7萬條視力記錄。

The diagnostic accuracy was 90 percent within three years, and 80 percent within 10 years. It can also predict high myopia eight years in advance, providing a scientific basis for intervention, study leader Liu Yizhi said.

診斷準確率在3年內達到90%，10年內達到80%。研究負責人劉奕志表示，該方法還可以提前8年預測高度近視，爲干預近視提供科學依據。