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解析英國女王的投資組合 Short view on Queen's Investment

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解析英國女王的投資組合 Short view on Queen's Investment

If anyone can afford to take the long view on investment, it’s surely the British monarch. Queen Elizabeth II on Wednesday passes Queen Victoria as the longest-reigning British head of state, after 63 years on the throne.

要說有誰有條件着眼於長線投資的話,那肯定是英國君主了。週三,英國女王伊麗莎白二世(Queen Elizabeth II)超越維多利亞女王(Queen Victoria),成爲在位時間最長的英國國家元首,已在位63年。

She has seen 13 prime ministers, 12 US presidents and the invention of modern portfolio theory. Her predilection for horseracing is well known. But how’s her investment strategy? She has little choice in asset allocation. The castles, the crowns, the 3,000-carat Cullinan diamond and much else are held in trust, and cannot be rebalanced into equities. Valuation is tough, too, with 17th century royal headwear even less liquid than junk bond ETFs.

她見證了13位英國首相、12位美國總統以及現代投資組合理論的誕生。她對賽馬的嗜好衆所周知。但是,她的投資策略是什麼?在資產配置上,她沒有多少選擇餘地。城堡、皇冠、那枚3000克拉的“庫利南”(Cullinan)鑽石以及其他很多資產都由信託機構持有,無法調整爲股票投資。估值也很困難,那頂17世紀的王室皇冠的流動性甚至還不如投資垃圾債券的交易所交易基金(ETF)。

Still, the portfolio has a useful bias towards inflation protection, and assets that appeal to the burgeoning super-rich. There is no index of crown jewels, but the sterling gold price has more than doubled in real terms. Diamonds have turned out to be less flashy, lagging inflation.

不過,該投資組合存在抵擋通脹的有用偏好,且其中包含着吸引新興超級富豪階層的資產。沒有關於皇冠寶石的指數,但是,實際金價(以英鎊計)已經增長超過一倍。鑽石的表現反倒沒那麼亮眼,跑輸通脹。

The real jewel in the crown may be the Koh-i-Noor, but the shining light of the Queen’s portfolio is the royal art collection.

雖然真正的“皇冠上的寶石”是那枚光之山鑽石(Koh-I-Noor),但是女王的投資組合中最耀眼的寶貝是皇家收藏的藝術品。

Art has been one of the better performing assets of the past century, making 3 per cent a year above inflation, well ahead of bonds. According to Christophe Spaenjers, a finance professor at HEC Paris, the price of art at London sales has risen more than 500-fold in nominal terms since 1952, or 20-fold after inflation. Gilts rose five times after inflation, assuming coupons were reinvested.

在過去的一個世紀中,藝術品是表現較好的資產之一,剔除通脹每年收益3%,遠高於債券。據巴黎高等商學院(HEC Paris)的金融學教授克里斯托夫斯帕傑爾斯(Christophe Spaenjers)表示,自1952年以來,倫敦售出的藝術品的名義價格已經是當初的逾500倍,剔除通脹後的實際價格是當初的逾20倍。同期英國國債剔除通脹後上漲4倍(假設票息被重新投資於英國國債)。

Land has done well too. In this case an Englishwoman’s home really is her castle, but the Queen’s bias towards central London luxury housing (Buckingham Palace) has been a clear source of outperformance recently.

土地投資收益也不錯。常言道,一個英國女人的家就是她的城堡,而女王的家真的是就是城堡。不過女王對倫敦市中心奢侈住宅——白金漢宮(Buckingham Palace)——的偏愛,近來對她的不凡投資收益有突出貢獻。

British housing has been a very good investment. The price of older houses matched the capital value of shares (not including dividends), rising 127-fold. Property is expensive to manage and much harder to trade than shares, though, and net rental yields, while not reliably measured, have probably been lower than dividends.

英國住宅一直是一項非常好的投資。較老住宅的價格上漲不輸於股票市值(不包括股息),上漲了126倍。不過,房地產的管理成本昂貴,而且遠比股票難以變現,淨房租收益率(儘管衡量方法並不可靠)很可能一直低於股息。

Overall, the portfolio is far too concentrated in the UK. Britannia no longer rules the waves, and even the most patriotic investors have long since recognised that diversifying risk means holding foreign assets, too — even if these days royals cannot just send in troops to seize them.

總的來說,女王的投資組合太過集中於英國。大不列顛已經不再統治海洋,即便是最愛國的投資者,也早已意識到,只有持有一些境外資產才能分散風險——雖然如今英國王室可以派遣軍隊沒收民衆資產的日子已一去不返。