中國對非洲投資銳減 Chinese investment in Africa plunges 84%

China’s investment into Africa appears to be another casualty of the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese cross-border investment in greenfield projects and in expansion of existing projects in Africa fell by 84 per cent in the first half of this year compared with a year earlier, from $3.54bn to $568m.

中國對非洲的投資似乎成了世界第二大經濟體增長放緩的又一犧牲品。今年上半年，中國在非洲綠地項目及現有項目擴建上的跨境投資與去年同期相比減少了84%，從35.4億美元降至5.68億美元。

With less money being spent on the big projects that dominated investment in the first half of 2014, Chinese investment has refocused on its original interest in the continent: raw materials.

隨着在大型項目上的投資減少（這類項目是2014年上半年中國對非投資的主要形式），中國投資已重新聚焦於對非洲大陸的原始興趣：原材料。

Even as its total investments fell back sharply in the first half of 2015, investment into extractive industries nearly doubled. Chinese spending on projects in oil, gas, coal, mining and metals rose from $141.4m to $288.9m over the period.

雖然中國對非洲總投資在2015年上半年大幅回落，但對採掘業的投資幾乎翻了一番。期內，中國在非洲石油、天然氣、煤炭、礦業及金屬項目上的投資從去年同期的1.414億美元增至2.889億美元。

Seen in the context of the past decade, this year’s level of Chinese FDI is more a return to form than a reversal of a rising trend. It peaked at $11.7bn in 2008, before the global financial crisis, only to fall back to an average of $1.5bn a year over the following five years. Last year’s fresh surge in investment has not been maintained.

放在過去10年的時間跨度來看，中國今年對非洲的直接投資水平(FDI)與其說是上升趨勢出現了逆轉，不如說是恢復原樣。中國對非投資在2008年即全球金融危機爆發前達到了117億美元的峯值，而在隨後5年間回落至年均15億美元。去年新顯現的投資激增勢頭並未維持下去。

China’s relationship with African states has been a pivotal — and often controversial — component of the region’s growth story over the past decade.

過去10年，中國與非洲各國的關係一直是非洲地區增長故事的關鍵（同時也常引發爭議的）組成部分。

Africa attracted record inward FDI flows in the full year of 2014 totalling $87bn — a 64 per cent increase from 2013 according to research by This is Africa and fDi Intelligence, two publications owned by the Financial Times.

英國《金融時報》旗下兩份出版物《This is Africa》和《fDi Intelligence》的研究顯示，2014年全年，非洲吸引的FDI總額達到了創紀錄的870億美元，比2013年增加了64%。

The figures from fDi Markets, an FT data service, include greenfields and expansion of existing projects but exclude other items such as intra-company loans typically included in traditional, balance of payments FDI data.

英國《金融時報》旗下數據服務fDi Markets的數據包含綠地項目及現有項目擴建，但不包括其他條目，例如通常包含在傳統的國際收支FDI數據中的公司內部貸款。

However, global headwinds have complicated Africa’s growth story. Sharp falls in the price of oil and other commodities have crimped growth in economies from Angola to Zambia, which continue to rely on raw materials exports for the majority of their revenues.

然而，全球範圍內的不利因素使非洲的增長故事複雜化。石油及其他大宗商品價格急劇下跌阻礙了從安哥拉到贊比亞等國家的經濟增長，這些國家仍依賴原材料出口獲得大部分收入。

Yet investment represents a relatively small piece of the China-Africa relationship when compared with trade. China surpassed the US to be the region’s top trade partner in 2009. Trade between China and sub-Saharan Africa was worth more than $170bn in 2013, from less than $10bn in 2002, according to the World Bank.

但與中非貿易相比，投資只代表中非關係中相對較小的一部分。2009年，中國超過美國成爲非洲最大的貿易伙伴。世界銀行(Word Bank)的數據顯示，中國與撒哈拉以南非洲地區之間的貿易額從2002年的不到100億美元增長到2013年的逾1700億美元。

However, FDI is a bellwether for macro trends, and reflects shifts in global investment.

然而，FDI是宏觀經濟形勢的風向標，反映了全球投資的變化。

“FDI has dipped across the board from emerging markets into other emerging markets, and into Africa in particular,” says Vera Songwe, the IFC’s director for West and Central Africa. Capital inflows as a share of GDP in emerging markets have fallen from a high of 8 per cent in 2007 to about 2 per cent in 2015, according to the Institute of International Finance.

世行旗下國際金融公司(IFC)西非與中非地區主管維拉縠圭(Vera Songwe)說：“新興市場對新興市場的FDI已經全線下滑，特別是流入非洲的部分。”國際金融協會(Institute of International Finance)的數據顯示，新興市場資本流入與GDP的比例已從2007年8%的高位，降至2015年的2%左右。

Some economists have expressed concerns that a bursting Chinese real estate bubble could further reduce demand for raw materials from Africa, and with it Chinese interest in investing in the sector and more broadly in the region.

一些經濟學家擔心，如果中國房地產泡沫破裂，可能進一步減少對非洲原材料的需求，這樣一來，中國對非洲原材料行業以及更廣泛領域的投資興趣也將隨之減少。

Others are more sanguine, seeing opportunity down the line as China’s economy reorients itself. “Is China now going to relaunch internal demand, in one way or another? If this is the case, the demand at least in volume in natural resources can even increase,” says Mario Pezzini, director of the OECD’s Development Centre.

還有些人則更爲樂觀，他們看到了中國經濟調整帶來的機遇。經合組織(OECD)發展中心主任馬里奧槧偏尼(Mario Pezzini)說：“中國現在會以某種方式重啓內需嗎？如果是這樣的話，至少從量上來說，其對自然資源的需求甚至可能增加。”

Even as China’s economy looks inward, demographic trends in Africa have the potential to kick-start internal demand. Over the next 35 years, the region’s population is set to double to 2bn, while policymakers cope with the fastest rate of urbanisation in the world.

即使中國經濟轉變爲內向型，非洲的人口趨勢也有潛力來激發內需。未來35年，非洲地區的人口將翻倍至20億，而這裏的政策制定者們需要應對世界最快速的城市化進程。

Real estate development and housing will be key areas for internal growth and can absorb production previously geared towards China, according to the IFC’s Ms Songwe. “The question is now turning towards looking at internal demand, which is what China is doing as well,” she says.

國際金融公司的鬆圭認爲，房地產開發與住房將成爲非洲內部增長的關鍵領域，可以吸收此前爲滿足中國需求而建成的產能。“問題是要現在就轉向着眼於內需，這也是中國正在做的，”她說。