中國經濟需要鍼灸刺激 Chinas problem is the economy itself not the market sell off

The stock market sell-off is not the problem. Yes, the Shanghai Composite Stock Index has dropped almost 40 per cent since its June peak, but the Chinese economy has rarely been upset by fluctuations of its financial markets. The problem — not a huge one, but a problem nonetheless — is the Chinese economy itself. It requires corrective action from Chinese authorities — not surgery, but acupuncture.

股市拋售不是問題所在。是的，上證綜指(Shanghai Composite Stock Index)從6月份的高峯下跌了近40%，但中國經濟很少受國內金融市場波動的影響。問題——這不是個很大的問題，但無論如何是個問題——是中國經濟本身。它需要中國當局採取矯正措施——不是外科手術，而是鍼灸。

It is easy to see why markets are unnerved. Trade and exports barely grew in the first half of this year, and in July exports fell significantly. Production of electricity and cement, both of which are consumed locally rather than exported, declined for the first seven months of the year. These signs indicate that the economy is slowing down.

不難看出爲何市場感到緊張。今年上半年貿易和出口幾乎沒有增長，7月份出口大幅下滑。發電量和水泥產量（這兩項供當地消費而非出口）在頭7個月下降。這些跡象表明經濟正在放緩。

Last month, after months of market pressure, the People’s Bank of China introduced a new mechanism for trading the renminbi, which caused its value to fall and triggered worldwide speculation of further devaluation. Yet this will not help China as much as one might expect. Other countries have also devalued, mitigating any potential benefits to Chinese exporters.

7月，在數月的市場壓力下，中國央行宣佈了新的人民幣匯率形成機制，使人民幣貶值，並引發了全世界對於人民幣將進一步貶值的猜測。然而，此舉對中國的幫助不像某些人預期的那麼大。其他國家也紛紛貶值，減少了惠及中國出口商的潛在好處。

None of this augurs well for the government’s chances of increasing output per head by 60 per cent by 2021. And China’s economic hiccup is echoing around the world as never before. Share prices from New York to Moscow followed the country down last week, only to bounce back after the PBoC cut interest rates. Developments in China move commodities markets, too.

這些事情不能提高政府到2021年將人均產出提高60%的勝算。而中國的經濟問題也前所未有地在世界各地引起反響。上週，從紐約到莫斯科的各地股市隨中國股市下跌，在中國央行下調利率後纔出現回彈。中國經濟形勢也左右了大宗商品市場走向。

This is not a beautiful picture for Beijing’s top decision makers, who must also contend with a rate cut expected this year from the US Federal Reserve. But the situation is not grave. Chinese consumers are still hungry for higher living standards, and given a little more disposable income, they are willing to spend. This is not mere speculation; my research has shown that as labour shortages have led to higher wages for blue-collar workers, private consumption has risen as a share of gross domestic product. If the Chinese cared only about economic security they would have squirrelled the money away.

對北京的最高決策者來說，這不是什麼美好的畫面。此外他們還必須應對美聯儲(Fed)預計將在今年進行的加息。但形勢並不嚴峻。中國消費者仍然渴望更高的生活水平，只要可支配收入有所增加，他們就願意進行支出。這不僅僅是推測；我的研究已經表明，由於勞動力短缺導致藍領勞動者的薪資提高，私人消費佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比例有所上升。如果中國人只關注經濟安全，他們會把錢存起來。

What China needs is not a vast stimulus like that of 2009, which amounted to 7.5 per cent of GDP then (roughly the trade surplus) and encompassed huge infrastructure projects. It needs a pinprick stimulus targeted at the financial sector. Households and businesses pay some of the world’s highest financing costs — which is ridiculous given the extraordinarily high savings rates.

中國需要的不是像2009年那樣包含大型基礎設施項目的大規模刺激計劃，而是以金融行業爲目標，採取“鍼灸”式刺激。中國家庭和企業支付的融資成本處於世界最高之列——考慮到中國極高的儲蓄率，這種情況十分荒謬。

The first element of the acupuncture stimulus is to cut interest rates, allow local governments to borrow for longer periods on the bond markets, and let banks lend more for a given amount of capital. The second is to enable this money to flow into infrastructure investments more quickly, by speeding up the process of land acquisition and implementing engineering blueprints. Local officials often avoid making decisions for fear that they will be accused of corruption. The fears of the upright and hard working must be dispelled.

實施鍼灸刺激的第一個要素是降息，允許地方政府在債券市場上借入更長時期的債務，並讓銀行增加一定的放貸量。第二個要素是通過加快徵地以及施工進程，讓這些錢更快地流入基礎設施投資項目。地方官員往往由於擔心受到腐敗指控而回避決策。必須消除正直與勤勉之人所懷的擔憂。

The third “needle” is to encourage private enterprise, by lowering tax rates and implementing the already announced reform of selling off parts of state-owned enterprises to private investors. Outside managers should be brought in on market terms, and allowed much greater autonomy.

第三“針”是通過降低稅率、落實此前已宣佈的允許私人投資者入股國企的改革，激勵民營企業。應按市場條件引入外部管理人員，並給予他們更大的自主權。

Many Chinese citizens have criticised the previous government’s Rmb4tn stimulus package, taking to social media to argue that it did more to save the economies of the west than to benefit China. Academic economists, too, have been sceptical. Their negative memories of the central planning years led to their embrace of neoclassical economic thought, placing more faith in markets than government action.

國內許多人批評上屆政府的4萬億人民幣經濟刺激計劃，在社交媒體上表示該計劃更多是幫助西方經濟脫困而不是中國自己。學院派經濟學家也持懷疑態度，對計劃經濟多年的負面印象使他們倒向新古典經濟學思想，他們更相信市場而不是政府行動。

But inactivity on the part of the government would be a grave mistake. The current situation differs from that of the past few years. China’s financial market sell-off is having such a wide global impact. It may well be exacerbated by the actions of the Fed. In these circumstances, voices of concern must be set aside and I believe they will be.

但就政府而言，不採取行動將是大錯特錯。目前形勢不同於過去幾年，中國金融市場上的拋售正在全球產生廣泛影響，而且美聯儲的行動很可能會放大這一影響。在這種情況下，必須將各種擔憂之聲拋在腦後——我也相信將會這樣。