中國尋求平衡經濟刺激與改革 China seeks to balance stimulus and reform

Chinese premier Li Keqiang sought at the weekend to balance conflicting goals of stimulating China’s economy and reforming it, as he presented economic targets at the country’s parliamentary meeting.

中國總理李克強週末在全國人大會議上提出了經濟目標，尋求在刺激和改革中國經濟這兩個相互矛盾的目標之間達到平衡。

The annual session of the National People’s Congress comes as Beijing faces questions over its stewardship of the economy, amid slowing growth and rising debt burdens, and after a series of stock market crashes roiled global markets.

一年一次的全國人大會議舉行之際，北京在經濟管理方面受到種種質疑。目前中國經濟增長不斷放緩，債務負擔不斷加大，還發生了一連串震撼全球市場的股市大跌。

Mr Li announced a growth target range for this year of 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent, above what many international economists believe is realistic. At the same time he projected the fiscal deficit to rise to 3 per cent — a sharp increase but below expectations — as the government struggles to shift from an inefficient, capital-intensive growth model while cushioning an economic slowdown.

李克強宣佈今年的增長目標區間是6.5%至7%，高於許多國際經濟學家視爲現實的水平。同時，他預計財政赤字比例將升至3%——升幅較大，但小於預期。目前中國政府正在艱難地轉變效率低下、資本密集的增長模式，同時爲經濟放緩提供緩衝。

“They’re looking for balance,” said Shao Yu, chief economist at Orient Securities in Shanghai. “The attitude is, ‘yes we’ll do a bit of fiscal stimulus, but we’ll also keep in mind that we already have a lot of debt’.”

“他們正在尋找平衡，”東方證券(Orient Securities)首席經濟學家邵宇在上海表示。“現在的態度是，‘沒錯，我們會搞一些財政刺激，但我們也將記住，我們已經有大量債務'。”

But for some the continued focus on gross domestic product is blunting the reform drive.

但在一些人士看來，繼續着眼於國內生產總值(GDP)，正使改革失去鋒芒。

“The growth targets are ambitious and efforts to meet them may detract from reform,” said Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics. “The caveat that [trimming overcapacity] will be done ’proactively yet prudently’ confirms our expectations that the efforts will be relatively timid.”

“這些增長目標雄心勃勃，爲達到這些目標而付出的努力可能會有損改革，”牛津經濟(Oxford Economics)的高路易(Louis Kuijs)表示。“有關（削減過剩產能）將‘積極穩妥’進行的提醒，證實了我們的預期，即這方面的努力將是相對縮手縮腳的。”

Beijing’s decision makers must also contend with a more fragmented economy after 15 years of nationwide expansion. The collapse in coal and oil prices, along with the bursting of local housing bubbles, means economic growth has slowed very sharply in some regions while holding up in others.

經過持續15年的全國擴張之後，北京的決策者還必須應對一個更爲分化的經濟。煤炭和石油價格的崩盤，加上某些地方房地產泡沫的破裂，意味着經濟增長在某些地區急劇減速，而在其它一些地區保持得還可以。

“Go to a steel town in the industrial north or drive through miles of empty apartments in a second-tier city and you see China is in recession,” Andrew Gilholm, Control Risks’ managing director for Asia, wrote recently. “Look at the performance of a private service-sector company in Jiangsu or tour an R&D park in Shanghai, and you see China is still enjoying double-digit growth.”

“去一下北方工業地區的某個鍊鋼重鎮，或者驅車經過某個二線城市綿延數英里的閒置公寓樓，你會看到中國正處於經濟衰退，”諮詢機構“控制風險”(Control Risks)亞洲董事總經理安德魯•吉洛姆(Andrew Gilholm)最近寫道。 “看一看江蘇某個私營服務業公司的表現，或者走訪上海的某個研發園區，你會看到中國仍然享受着兩位數的增長。”

The divergence reverberated on Saturday through the Great Hall of the People, where thousands of delegates turned pages in unison as they listened to Mr Li’s speech — “the longest ever”, one noted wryly.

這種差異上週六在人民大會堂產生迴響，數千名代表在聆聽李克強講話的時候整齊劃一地一頁頁翻過稿件。“有史以來最長的（政府工作報告），”其中一個人揶揄道。

“We still need to pay attention to price rises in the top cities,” Jia Kang, director of the research institute at the Ministry of Finance, told reporters during a tea break. “But many localities do have a problem with debt. They also have to meet social payments, especially in high unemployment areas.”

“我們仍然需要注意一線城市的價格上漲，”原財政部財政科學研究所所長賈康在茶歇時間告訴記者。“但很多地方確實有債務問題。他們還必須負擔社會福利支出，特別是在高失業率地區。”

Millions could lose their jobs as unproductive “zombie” businesses are finally allowed to fail. Beijing’s plan is for closures to be funded by central and local governments as well as the groups themselves, with the help of new loans. However, it is not clear that all cash-strapped regions or near-bankrupt companies can do so.

隨着效率低下的“殭屍”企業終於被允許倒閉，數百萬人可能下崗。北京的計劃是讓中央和地方政府以及企業集團本身在新貸款的幫助下爲關廠買單。不過，尚不清楚資金緊張的地區或瀕臨破產的企業能否做到這一點。

Already, sporadic worker protests have caught Beijing’s attention, including a demonstration at the Ministry of Education last month by hundreds of unpaid teachers from the provinces. “It’s true that some regions have seen negative growth” in fiscal revenues, said Wang Yiming, vice-minister of the Development Research Center, an influential think-tank that advises China’s State Council, or cabinet. “It’s the effect of resource-dependence.”

零星的工人抗議已經引起北京的注意，包括上月數百名被拖欠工資的教師從地方來到北京，在教育部大門外舉行示威。爲中國國務院提供諮詢的有影響力的智庫——國務院發展研究中心的副主任王一鳴表示，一些地區的財政收入“確實出現了負增長”。他稱，“這是資源依賴的效應。”

Mr Li is overseeing a tax reform effort that will channel more fiscal resources to local governments along with new spending mandates. Asked how the hardest-hit regions will meet their new obligations, Zhu Guangyao, vice-minister of finance, said: “That’s the point of the fiscal reform. It will give them more ability to respond.”

李克強正在推行一項稅收改革措施，此舉將向地方政府輸送更多財政資源，並讓它們承擔新的支出任務。在被問及經濟放緩的重災區將如何履行其新義務時，財務部副部長朱光耀表示：“這正是財政改革的意義。此舉將增強他們的應對能力。”

Some local governments are not waiting. Despite China’s slowing economy, an unprecedented number of new coal-fired power plants have been approved in the past year. That reflects local-government efforts to create a market for their coal rather than close lossmaking mines. Central policymakers may similarly hesitate to address unproductive overcapacity if that means exacerbating regional slowdowns.

一些地方政府並未等待。儘管中國經濟增長放緩，但過去一年有空前數量的燃煤電廠項目獲批。這反映出地方政府試圖爲當地的煤炭創建一個市場，而不是關閉虧損的煤礦。中央政府的政策制定者也可能在化解低效率的過剩產能方面態度猶豫——如果削減產能意味着加劇地方的放緩的話。