他她話題:創富奇招是跟專家對着幹?

In the mid to late 1970s, when Western fast food chains like McDonald's and KFC were just gaining traction in the Hong Kong market, I recall lively debates about their future potential in China. The China market was still in its pre-opening and reform stage.

上世紀70年代中後期，麥當勞（McDonald's）、肯德基（KFC）等西式快餐連鎖店剛剛在香港站穩腳跟，當時對於它們在中國市場發展前景的討論我至今記憶猶新。那時候，中國還處於改革開放的前夜。

Even in relatively international Hong Kong, McDonalds and KFC experienced some speed bumps in the early stages of market entry, and many "experts" remained very skeptical about their long-term growth potential in Greater China.

儘管香港的國際化程度比較高，但麥當勞、肯德基在進入市場初期還是一波三折，發展緩慢。很多“專家”也對它們在大中華區的長期發展潛力表示懷疑。

The discussion in those days about the future of western fast food on the Chinese mainland was framed by a small number of optimists on one side, and a large number of skeptics on the other.

那些日子，關於洋快餐在中國大陸發展的討論還是以懷疑爲主，僅有少數人持樂觀的態度。

The naysayers focused on the obvious challenges: Chinese consumers don't like western fast food, can't eat dairy products like the cheese in cheeseburgers, can't afford the prices, and the big question of whether the government would even allow western fast food operators into China.

否定派關注的顯著困難包括：中國消費者不喜歡洋快餐、不吃奶製品（比如吉士漢堡中的奶酪）、承受不起價格，而最大的問題就是政府會不會批准洋快餐進入中國經營。

In the ideological atmosphere of the day, western fast food was perceived not only as a business, but as a powerful and potentially polluting cultural influence, akin to Hollywood. That's not to mention the obvious public health issues.

在當時的意識形態下，洋快餐不僅被視爲商業活動，更被認爲是好萊塢式的精神污染。顯而易見的公衆健康問題就更不用說了。

It's useful to recall the time just 30-odd years ago when such attitudes prevailed, because the growth of western fast food in China since then has been nothing short of spectacular.

回憶一下三十多年前還盛行的這種態度很有好處，因爲此後洋快餐在中國的發展只能用“壯觀”二字形容。

Moral of the story? One thing which is very difficult to predict is the future.

這個故事告訴我們什麼道理呢？世事難料！

As of the end of 2011, McDonald's had 1,464 stores on the Chinese mainland, with a stated plan to open another 250 this year. This compares with their 3,298 stores in Japan, which suggests significant upside for further expansion in China.

截至到2011年底，麥當勞在中國大陸共有1,464家店面，已宣佈年內即將開業的店面還有250家。但是與日本3,298家麥當勞相比，未來還有很大的拓展空間。

Illinois-based McDonald's had global revenues US$27 billion last year. Any way you cut it, that's a lot of burgers and fries.

麥當勞總部設在美國的伊利諾伊州，去年全球總收入爲270億美元。這個數字無論怎麼分解，都意味着數不盡的漢堡和薯條。

Still, wings are beating burgers in the war for the hearts and minds of Chinese consumers.

但是，在爭奪中國消費者的青睞上，最終還是雞翅打敗了漢堡。

Kentucky-based Yum brands is the big kahuna of fast food in China, with the KFC, Pizza Hut, and Little Sheep hotpot chain under its umbrella.

位於肯塔基州的百盛餐飲集團（Yum）纔是中國快餐業的老大，旗下品牌包括肯德基、必勝客（Pizza Hut），甚至連小肥羊（Little Sheep）火鍋連鎖店也被它收入了帳下。

It's useful to think about things which many experts today are predicting could never and will never happen.

想想這些很多專家依然預言不可能、也永遠不會發生的事情，會對我們大有好處。

Entrepreneurs with an innovative idea, plus the resources and passion to execute it, can often win big by betting against the so-called leading experts of the day.

具有創新思維，有資源、有熱情去把想法付諸實施的企業家不妨反其道而行之，挑戰這些所謂的頂級專家，往往能從中獲得豐厚的回報。