聚焦奧運 倫敦奧運金牌大猜想(2)

Sore Ankles and Split Seconds

偶發因素：腳踝疼痛與毫秒之差

A return to U.S. Olympic supremacy would come at a time when the economy is lagging and when Americans are feeling somewhat less than superpower-like. It also arrives in the middle of a presidential race in which both candidates could use the outcome for their benefit: President Obama by noting that the triumph occurred on his watch and Mitt Romney by touting his credentials as the chief of the 2002 Winter Games in Salt Lake City.

如果美國確實在本屆奧運會上重新登頂，時間上恰逢國內經濟發展緩慢、美國民衆感覺本國超級大國地位不比從前。此外，此時也正值美國總統大選期間，兩位候選人均可將這個成果爲己所用。奧巴馬可以說這個勝利是在其任期內贏得的，而米特•羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)則可把他曾擔任2002年鹽湖城冬奧會組委會主席的資歷拿來說事。

Team U.S.A.'s projected success is subject to the whims of world-class athletic competition, of course-an environment where a sore ankle or a few hundredths of a second can make the difference between victory and defeat. Two American swimmers, Phelps and Missy Franklin, could help the U.S. win a dozen gold medals, or they could get the flu and leave empty-handed.

當然，我們所預測的美國的成功要受到世界級比賽中偶發因素的制約。在這樣的比賽中，勝敗就在於腳踝疼痛這樣的事情或者百分之幾秒的時間差。比如說，美國游泳運動員菲爾普斯和蜜茜•富蘭克林(Missy Franklin)有可能幫助美國獲得十幾枚金牌，但是萬一他們得了流感，結果就是空手而歸。

If probability becomes reality, however, a U.S. romp could presage more dominance in the future. The USOC receives no support from the federal government. But nothing gets Americans to reach into their pocketbooks on behalf of the Olympics more than seeing Americans win.

然而，如果我們的預測都成爲了現實，美國的成功可能預示着其在未來將更能佔據主導地位。美國奧委會不享受聯邦政府的任何資助，這時候沒有什麼事情比看見本國隊員獲勝更能讓美國民衆爲了奧運而掏腰包了。

'The better we do, the more money we can raise,' says Scott Blackmun, chief executive of the USOC.

“我們的表現越好，就越能募集到更多資金，”美國奧委會首席執行長斯科特•布萊克姆恩(Scott Blackmun)說道。

Olympic improvement tends to come with hosting the Games, as when China soared in 2008. Besides the psychological advantage of competing at home, host countries invest in facilities, coaching and athlete development. China poured money and effort into 'Project 119,' a program to target the 119 potential gold medals in sports where China was traditionally weak, such as swimming, boxing and athletics. The Chinese won 51 gold medals and 100 overall in 2008, up from 28 and 63 in 2004.

奧運會主辦國的奧運戰績往往會提高，比如中國在2008年北京奧運會的成績就大幅提高。除了具有在本土作戰的心理優勢之外，主辦國還會投資基礎設施、訓練和運動員的培養。中國就對“119工程”投入了大量人力和財力，該工程把目標瞄準了中國傳統弱項的119枚金牌上，例如游泳、拳擊和田徑運動。最終中國在2008年獲得了51枚金牌，獎牌總數爲100枚，高於2004年的32枚金牌和63枚獎牌。

The British have spent nearly $500 million to fund training and athletic-development programs since 2009. The Journal projects that Team GB, as it is known, will win 22 gold medals and 66 overall this year, a vast improvement from eight years ago, when Britain won nine gold medals and 31 overall.

自2009年以來，英國已花費近5億美元用以資助訓練和運動員培養計劃。本報預測，英國代表團將在今年贏取22枚金牌，獎牌總數爲66枚。這相比八年前是一個巨大的進步，當時英國只獲得九枚金牌，總共獲得31枚獎牌。

The U.S. hasn't hosted a Summer Olympics since 1996 and won't host another one until at least 2024. It spends relatively little on athletes. The USOC shells out on average $106.2 million a year to train and treat its winter and summer athletes and maintain its training centers in Colorado Springs, Lake Placid, N.Y., and Chula Vista, Calif.

美國自1996年以來便未舉辦過夏季奧運會，而且至少要到2024年纔有機會舉辦。美國對運動員的投入相對很少，美國奧委會每年平均提供1.062億美元用於訓練和招待冬季及夏季奧運會的運動員以及維護其位於科羅拉多斯普林斯、紐約州普萊西德湖(Lake Placid)和加州丘拉維斯塔(Chula Vista)的訓練中心。

However, while the USOC has the ultimate power of naming the country's Olympic team, it has relatively few resources and athletes under its direct control. The national governing body for each sport, such as USA Track & Field and USA Swimming, is largely responsible for developing future Olympians. In most cases, those groups rely largely on the U.S. collegiate, scholastic and recreational sports systems.

儘管美國奧委會擁有最終選定奧運人選的權力，但是它能夠直接控制的資源和運動員非常之少。培養未來的奧運選手主要由每個運動項目的國家管理機構，比如美國田徑協會(USA Track & Field)和美國游泳協會(USA Swimming)負責。在大多數情況下，這些組織主要依靠美國的大學、中小學和娛樂運動體系來發掘人才。

During the 2010-11 school year, the latest for which figures are available, U.S. college athletic departments spent $12.1 billion, according to U.S. Department of Education filings. High-school athletic departments spend several billion dollars more. U.S. parents dig deep also, spending hundreds of millions on training in hopes their kids become the next Abby Wambach or Nastia Luikin.

美國教育部(U.S. Department of Education)的備案文件顯示，在2010至2011年這一有數據可查的最新學年，美國高校的體育院系花費了121億美元，中學體育部門的花費還要高出數十億美元。美國家長也爲此付出很多，爲了把他們的孩子培養成下一個瓦姆巴赫或是娜斯佳•柳金(Nastia Luikin)而掏了數億美元的腰包。

Compare that with China, where state-run sports schools comb through communities searching for the extremely tall to play basketball and the double-jointed to learn diving. The state oversees their training into adulthood.

中國的情況則與此不同，其公辦體校會到各社區篩選，找個子奇高的人打籃球、關節靈活的則選去學習跳水。國家會負責他們直至成年之後的訓練。

That system, says Bill Martin, the former president of the USOC, wouldn't work in the U.S. 'It's not part of the DNA of our country to have one controlling authority on sports,' he says. 'The beauty of our system is that Olympians can come out of anywhere, and they do.'

美國前奧委會主席比爾•馬丁(Bill Martin)認爲，這種體制在美國行不通。“我們國家就沒有這種讓一個機構來控制體育運動的DNA，”馬丁說道，“我們的體制的魅力在於奧運選手可以來自任何一個地方，而且確實也是如此。”

China's projected medal decline points to a common post-host hangover and a more fundamental weakness in its approach to athlete development: the decline of the sports school. Over the past decade, the number of sports schools in China has decreased by 40%, according to state-run newspaper Global Times, as the country's booming economy has created more career options for rural youth whose families once viewed sports schools as a meal ticket or the only means of social mobility. Now families are more likely to turn down an invitation to a sports school because other options exist.

我們所預計的中國獎牌數量的下降表明瞭一些問題，比如奧運主辦國在主辦奧運後往往會泄勁、中國培養運動員的方法有一個更基本的弱點──體校數量減少。中國官方媒體《環球時報》(Global Times)報道稱，由於中國蓬勃發展的經濟爲農村的年輕人創造了更多就業選擇，過去10年來中國體校的數量減少了40%。在過去，農村家庭把體校視爲長期飯票或是提高社會地位的唯一途徑。如今，由於其他選擇的出現，這些家庭更有可能會拒絕讓孩子進體校。

Chinese sports officials declined to comment for this story, but Susan Brownell, a professor of anthropology at the University of Missouri, St. Louis, who has written extensively about Chinese sports, says the country 'is just really slowly moving toward a sports system that is more in line with what other countries have─very slowly.'

中國體育事務官員拒絕就本文置評，但密蘇里大學(University of Missouri)聖路易斯分校的人類學教授蘇珊•布朗奈爾(Susan Brownell)稱，中國“正慢慢朝着與其他國家更爲一致的體育制度邁進，速度非常緩慢。”布朗奈爾撰寫過衆多有關中國體育制度的文章。