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金正恩可能在新年賀詞中宣佈完成核武計劃

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At the start of 2017, Kim Jong Un announced that North Korea had entered “the final stage of preparation” to test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile.

2017年初,金正恩(Kim Jong Un)宣佈,朝鮮試射一枚洲際彈道導彈的準備工作已進入了“最後階段”。

The supreme leader, pictured, kept his word and, three such tests later, he declared last month that North Korea had “finally realised” its dream of being a state nuclear force.

這位最高領導人兌現了自己的諾言,朝鮮隨後進行了3次洲際彈道導彈試射,金正恩在上月宣佈,朝鮮“終於實現了”國家核武夢。

Observers expect him to announce in his new year’s address that he has completed the nuclear weapons programme that underpins his leadership.

觀察人士們預計他將在新年演講中宣佈,他完成了支撐其領導地位的核武計劃。

Although Pyongyang has launched its longest range missile and conducted its sixth nuclear test this year — a possible hydrogen bomb — Washington is not so sure. US military planners assume North Korea can land a missile on American soil but intelligence assessments vary.

儘管平壤已經發射了其最遠射程的導彈,並於今年進行了第六次核試驗(可能是氫彈),但華盛頓並不確定。美國的軍事計劃人士認爲,朝鮮可以將導彈發射到美國領土,但情報評估說法不一。

Jim Mattis, defence secretary, says North Korea is still “not yet” a capable threat to the US.

美國國防部長吉姆?馬蒂斯(Jim Mattis)表示,朝鮮“還不能”對美國造成切實威脅。

金正恩可能在新年賀詞中宣佈完成核武計劃

This is what we know about how much North Korea’s nuclear programme has achieved, whether its missiles can reach the US, and what it still has to master:

關於朝鮮核計劃取得的進展、它的導彈能否打到美國,以及它還需要掌握的技術,以下就是我們所知道的:

Is North Korea a nuclear power?

朝鮮是核武國家嗎?

Yes. North Korea has produced plutonium and enriched uranium and has conducted six nuclear tests . Siegfried Hecker, a US scientist who has made seven visits to North Korean nuclear facilities, where he was once handed a hot jar of plutonium as proud proof, estimates the regime has 25-30 nuclear weapons, each one potent enough to destroy a city. A leaked intelligence report puts the number closer to 60.

是的。朝鮮已生產出了鈈和濃縮鈾,並進行了六次核試驗。美國科學家西格弗裏德?赫克(Siegfried Hecker)曾7次訪問朝鮮核設施,有一次朝鮮自豪地拿給他一罐鈈作爲其擁有核能力的證據。赫克估計朝鮮政權擁有25至30枚核武器,每一枚核武器都足以摧毀一座城市。一份泄露的情報報告認爲朝鮮的核武器接近60枚。

Has Pyongyang developed a hydrogen bomb?

平壤研發出氫彈了嗎?

It is not clear. US officials say North Korea may have detonated its first hydrogen bomb in September. This two-stage fusion explosion relies on plutonium or uranium fission as a trigger, delivering far greater explosive impact up to 1,000 times the strength of the atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945.

目前尚不清楚。美國官員表示,朝鮮在今年9月可能引爆了第一枚氫彈。這種兩級聚變爆炸依靠鈈或鈾的裂變來觸發,其爆炸當量要大得多,可達到1945年美國在長崎投下的原子彈當量的1000倍。

Experts were struck by the much larger seismic impact of September’s underground explosion, with some saying it was akin to four Nagasakis.

9月份地下爆炸引起的較大震級的地震讓專家們感到震驚,有些人認爲它類似於4顆長崎原子彈的威力。