體育談論:弗格森退休 曼聯應無恙

Its 2012 annual report describes Manchester United as “an emerging growth company”. Fans of a football club founded in 1878 have always found that amusing. In his nearly 27 years as manager, Sir Alex Ferguson has won 38 trophies. When it listed on the New York Stock Exchange in the summer of 2012, the club had a “global community of 659m followers” – aka fans. Few companies in its particular line of business are as mature as Manchester United.

曼聯(Manchester United)在2012年年報中將自己描述爲“一家新興成長型公司”。考慮到這家足球俱樂部早在1878年便已成立，球迷們總是認爲這一描述很搞笑。亞歷克斯•弗格森爵士(Sir Alex Ferguson)在執掌曼聯教鞭的近27年裏，率隊奪得38座獎盃。當曼聯2012年夏在紐約證券交易所(NYSE)上市時，該俱樂部已“在全球擁有6.59億擁躉（也就是球迷）”。很少有公司能在自己所在的行業像曼聯那般成熟。

The term begins to make sense, however, with Sir Alex’s retirement, announced yesterday. More than most businesses, successful football clubs suffer an extreme form of key man risk. In the psychology of football – a sport that manufactures dreams and illusions, not an industry that makes widgets – success and failure embody the personal qualities of the man in charge. That is the manager, not the owner. This risk looms so large at Manchester United that it was among the risk factors in the listing prospectus.

但隨着弗格森昨天宣佈退休，“新興成長型公司”一詞又開始有了一些道理。關鍵人物的離去會爲企業帶來很大風險，這一點在成功的足球俱樂部身上表現得尤爲突出。足球是一種製造夢想和幻想的運動，而不是什麼生產小物件的行業。在足球界的心理中，成敗是“主政者”個人品質的體現。這位“主政者”是主教練，而不是球隊老闆。“主政者”離職對曼聯影響之大，甚至被列入該俱樂部上市招股說明書中的“風險因素”部分。

Sir Alex’s successor will have to start from scratch, as all football managers inevitably must. Sir Alex’s tenure has coincided with the death and rebirth of Manchester United – from has-been in November 1986 to a global behemoth valued at $3bn today. Its shares have risen a third since the IPO. It is on target for fiscal 2013 revenue of £350m. The route to financial nirvana has been sponsorship, including a deal with insurance company Aon to rebrand its training ground. That followed its $600m, multiyear shirt sponsorship deal with General Motors.

弗格森的繼任者必須從頭做起，這是所有足球教練不可避免的任務。在弗格森的任期內，曼聯經歷了覆滅與重生——1986年11月的曼聯猶如明日黃花，如今的它卻已是價值30億美元的全球巨頭。曼聯股價在首次公開發行(IPO)後已累計上漲三分之一。該俱樂部正向2013財年營收3.5億英鎊的目標邁進。贊助合同造就了曼聯的“財務天堂”——它先是與怡安保險(Aon)簽下了訓練場的冠名合同，而後又與通用汽車(General Motors)簽下了爲期多年、價值6億美元的球衣贊助合同。

With David Gill stepping down as chief executive next month, the club faces a lot of change. That would be cause for alarm at many companies. For Manchester United, it should not matter – most investors must also be fans. If they are not, there are other “emerging growth companies” out there for those unprepared to live the dreams and illusions of football.

隨着大衛•吉爾(David Gill)於下月卸任行政總裁一職，該俱樂部將面臨重大變革。這種情況若發生在其他公司身上，市場恐怕有理由感到擔憂。但這對曼聯而言應該沒什麼大不了的——它的投資者肯定大多也是它的球迷。如果這些人不是它的球迷、沒打算體驗足球的夢想與幻想，那麼有其他的“新興成長型公司”在向他們招手。