未來:無人機行業價值幾何

The drones are coming, according to the world's largest unmanned systems industry organization. And they are likely to bring high-tech jobs, millions in tax revenues, and tens of billions in economic impact with them. A report released today by the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) forecasts that if the Federal Aviation Administration meets its 2015 deadline for integrating unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the national civilian airspace, the total domestic economic impact will reach more than $82.1 billion between 2015 and 2025 -- creating more than 100,000 high-paying jobs in the process.

全球最大的無人操縱系統行業組織稱，無人機的時代正在向我們走來。無人機將會創造許多高技術崗位，帶來上千萬美元稅收，還將產生數十億美元的經濟效益。無人機國際聯盟（AUVSI）今天發佈的一份報告預測，如果聯邦航空局（FAA）能實現2015年將無人駕駛機系統（UAS）整合到國家民航系統中的目標，則2015年到2025年間爲美國國內帶來的經濟效益將超過821億美元——在此過程中將創造超過10萬個高薪崗位。

In the near term, says AUVSI, the outlook appears even rosier. More than 70,000 of the total 103,776 new jobs forecast nationally by 2025 will be created in just the first three years after airspace integration is completed, along with $13.6 billion in overall economic impact in the same span. Meanwhile states where the UAS industry is strongest will begin collecting what will eventually amount to $482 million in tax revenue in the decade following full airspace integration.

AUVSI稱，從近期看，前景似乎更爲美妙。全美到2025年將產生的103,776個新工作機會中，超過7萬個將在航空整合完成後的三年內出現，同期產生的總經濟效益將達到136億美元。同時，在航空整合徹底完成後的十年內，無人駕駛機系統產業最發達的那些州，稅收將高達4.82億美元。

That's assuming integration happens at all. Under the 2012 FAA Reauthorization Act, Congress ordered aviation authorities to develop a regulatory framework for the testing and licensing of commercial drones by 2015, a deadline that the FAA may not meet. The process of naming six federally approved UAS testing sites necessary for developing the kinds of technologies that will enable safe airspace integration was delayed indefinitely last year while the agency dealt with various public privacy concerns (the process resumed last month), and a variety of critical technical problems -- not least of which involve "sense and avoid" technologies, which allow unmanned systems to maintain safe distances between each other as well as manned aircraft -- have yet to be resolved.

而這個前景的前提是航空整合必須真正實現。根據《2012年聯邦航空局修訂法案》，國會要求航空當局必須到2015年前爲商用無人機的試飛和牌照發放開發一套監管框架。去年，國會曾經要求指定6個聯邦批准設立的UAS測試點，但這項工作遭遇無限期擱置。然而，要開發確保航空融合能順利實現的各種技術，這些測試點不可或缺。同時，當局還要應付公衆有關隱私權的各種問題（上個月，這項工作已經重新啓動）。而各種關鍵技術問題也亟待解決，尤其是其中涉及到“感知、避開”的技術。這種技術能讓無人機彼此之間、無人機與有人駕駛的飛機之間保持安全距離。

For every year the FAA delays the integration of UAS into the national airspace, the economy loses $10 billion in potential economic gain, the report claims, a number that's not lost on states vying not only to play host to the FAA's UAS test sites but also to woo UAS-related companies. The drone economy won't be spread evenly; the AUVSI report names California, Washington, Texas, Florida, and Arizona as the states most likely to reap the economic rewards of a domestic drone boom. Other states are scrambling to capture a piece of the industry as well. Oklahoma has been noticeably visible at various industry trade shows of late, while Indiana and Ohio have partnered in an effort to make their shared economic region a more attractive place for the FAA to place a test site, which both states expect could generate thousands of jobs and billions in economic activity between them.

這份報告還稱，在UAS融入美國航空系統的進程上，聯邦航空局每耽誤一年，美國經濟的潛在損失就高達100億美元，而對那些既積極爭取聯邦航空局UAS測試點落戶、又主動招攬UAS相關公司進駐的州來說，就不會出現這樣的損失。無人機經濟不會平均施惠於各州；報告指出，加州、華盛頓州、德克薩斯州、佛羅里達州和亞利桑那州是最有可能從這場無人機發展熱潮中獲得實惠的州。而其他州也在努力從這個行業的發展中分一杯羹。我們在近期舉辦的各類行業展會上看到，俄克拉荷馬州頻頻亮相。同時，印第安納州和俄亥俄州也開始攜手努力，讓它們共享的經濟區成爲對聯邦航空局安置測試點更有吸引力的區域。這兩個州都希望由此可帶來上萬個工作機會，產生鉅額的經濟效益。

Who exactly will be buying all these domestic drones? It's probably not who you think. While legitimate privacy concerns surround the proliferation of small UAS in the civilian airspace, sales of small surveillance drones to state and local authorities are only expected to make up a small portion of that spending. Agricultural applications dwarf all other categories, the AUVSI report claims, accounting for $75.6 billion of total national economic impacts by 2025, whereas government authorities like police, firefighters, and other first responders will generate just $3.2 billion. All other applications -- which range from weather and environmental monitoring, to oil and gas exploration, to aerial imaging and mapping -- will also result in a $3.2 billion impact over the same period.

誰會是這些國產無人機的買主呢？可能並不是大家通常所認爲的對象。由於公衆擔心小型無人機廣泛進入國內空域會引發侵犯隱私權問題，各州和當地政府購買的小型無人偵察機未來只會成爲總銷售中的一小部分。這份報告稱，無人機在農業領域的應用將遠超其他領域，到2025年爲全美帶來的經濟效益將達756億美元。而給其他政府機構如警察系統、消防系統和其他應急機構等帶來的經濟效益將只有32億美元。而同期，其他所有領域的應用——如氣候和環境監測，油氣勘探，航空測繪——也會產生32億美元的經濟效益。