重塑美國無人機行業的未來

At Robofest, first things first. First there’s the wine, provided courtesy of one of the Washington, D.C. area’s most influential aerospace consultancies. Once you’ve filled your plastic cup—this affair is more backyard barbecue than society event—there’s the meet and greet, an opportunity to check out the credentials of those around you: an aerospace industry executive, the economic development chief for a western U.S. state, a dean of engineering for a prestigious American university, several D.C. think tankers, lobbyists, lawyers. But the very first person you meet is Darryl Jenkins, chairman of the American Aviation Institute, consultant to airlines and aviation companies and host and creator of today’s event.

在Robofest會議期間，最首要的事情就是酒會。這是來自華盛頓地區最有影響力的航空業顧問的盛情款待。這項活動與其說是正式的社交場合，到不如說更像是後院的燒烤聚會。一旦塑料杯子斟滿，人們就開始了各種招呼應酬，你有機會結識身邊的各路人物，包括航空公司高層、美國西部某州經濟發展部門主管、美國著名高校工程學院院長、數位華盛頓智囊、說客和律師們。不過，你首先見到的是達里爾o詹金斯，他是美國航空研究所（American Aviation Institute）主席，航空航天企業顧問以及今天這一活動的發起人。

Jenkins is a well-known personality in the aerospace and aviation realms. He’s been in the room for more or less every major airline merger and bankruptcy restructuring over the past few decades. He’s spent his career lecturing to and on the aerospace industry, having taught for several semesters at George Washington University while publishing countless papers and research reports as well as one book on the industry. He’s the guy that goes on Bloomberg TV and CNBC to explain these things to the world. Jenkins knows a whole lot of influential people in the aviation and aerospace worlds. A lot of those people are here at Robofest today. They, like Jenkins, share a keen interest in the next generation of aerospace technology—the various unmanned aerial systems commonly and collectively known as drones.

詹金斯是航空航天領域的名人，過去數十年間，每一次大型航空公司的合併和破產中都或多或少有過他的參與。他還曾爲航空業相關人員授課，投身教學，在喬治華盛頓大學（George Washington University）任教多個學期，期間發表諸多論文和科研報告，以及一本航空航天著作。他頻頻出現在彭博財經頻道（Bloomberg TV）和全國廣播公司財經頻道（CNBC），向全世界介紹航空航天的問題。詹金斯認識許多業內的重量級人物，其中有不少也出席了今天的Robofest大會。他們和詹金斯一樣，對於下一代的航空科技——統稱爲無人機的各種無人駕駛航空系統抱有濃厚的興趣。

It’s a pitch-perfect afternoon in late October when Robofest takes place. The setting is Jenkins’ secluded home in the Shenandoah foothills. This year’s event is the second in two years, already known as an off-the-record social date that is evolving into an industry movement that Jenkins hopes will pave the way forward for the burgeoning commercial drone industry. (Fortune obtained special permission to write about the event.) On the agenda: An open discussion on how to best move the industry forward, and—of course—a bit of drone flying. But first, there’s wine and then lunch. No one wants to reshape an entire industry on an empty stomach.

Robofest活動開始於10月底一個完美的午後，場地設在謝南多厄山麓詹金斯幽僻的家中。這是兩年內第二次舉行這一活動。這一非正式的社交活動日已然成爲航空航天業界的一大盛會，詹金斯希望以此爲生機勃勃的商用無人機行業鋪平發展道路。【《財富》（Fortune）雜誌獲得報道此活動的特別許可。】活動議程包括：關於如何更好地推動產業發展的公開討論，當然還有無人機試飛活動。但是首先是酒會和午餐，沒人願意空着肚子規劃整個行業的未來。

Last year’s Robofest was mostly a recreational and social affair, Jenkins says. This year—with some of the more influential minds within the industry, state and federal government, and academia all gathered on his back patio—Jenkins wants to do more than just talk about what can be done. The drone industry largely sees itself as hamstrung by an overreaching and underfunded Federal Aviation Administration. The industry believes it is increasingly outgunned by foreign competitors operating in more permissive regulatory environments. Jenkins and his assembled cast of industry veterans, lawyers, entrepreneurs, lobbyists, and government insiders want to change that.

去年的Robofest主要是一項休閒和社交活動，詹金斯說。今年，他的後院裏雲集了業內領導者、州和聯邦政府人士，還有學者。除了討論，詹金斯還希望做點別的事情。美國聯邦航空局（Federal Aviation Administration）管制過分嚴格卻經費不足，以至於無人機行業總覺得發展受阻。業內人士認爲，目前美國的無人機行業已經被處於更寬鬆監管環境中的國外競爭者逐漸甩在身後。詹金斯連同一羣業內資深人士、律師、企業家、說客和政府內部人員都希望改變這一現狀。

“When I think about all the airline mergers and bankruptcies I’ve been through with this industry, I feel like an old man,” Jenkins says, calling his 80 or so guests to order. “When I think about UAS technology, I’m 16 again.” As his guests finish tucking into plates of fried chicken and pasta salad, Jenkins reminds his guests that the point of this gathering is not to sit around throwing rocks at the FAA, an activity that has become an organized sport for advocates of a commercialized drone industry. Today is about hammering out some concrete steps that the industry can take in the near term. It’s about keeping the industry marching forward despite bureaucratic inertia.

“當我想起自己經歷過的所有航空公司的合併和破產，我就覺得自己是歷經風浪的老者，”詹金斯在請80多位賓客點餐時說道。“可一想到無人機技術，我又變回了16歲。”在他的客人們對着炸雞和通心粉沙拉大快朵頤時，詹金斯提醒他們這次集會的目的不在於批評聯邦航空局，儘管這已經成爲商用無人機行業倡導者的一種有組織的活動。但是今天的活動旨在爲該行業近期的發展提供實質性的規劃，繞過官僚主義的惰性，推動行業進步。

Jenkins turns the floor over to his keynote speaker, the former CEO of a major Fortune 500 aerospace and defense company and vocal supporter of the drone industry. His comments set off a spirited discussion about what the industry needs, how it can nudge the FAA in the right direction, and—most importantly—what the industry can do on its own without help from the FAA. (The theme of this year’s Robofest: “Doing it Ourselves.”)

詹金斯將發言時間讓給活動主講嘉賓，某“財富500強航空航天公司”前首席執行官，也是無人機行業的大力支持者之一。主講嘉賓的言論引發了熱烈的討論，大家暢談產業需求、如何將聯邦航空局帶入正規，以及更重要的是——在沒有聯邦航空局的幫助下，商用無人機行業要如何發展。【今年Robofest活動主題是“自力更生”（“Doing it Ourselves”）。】

No single voice or interest dominates the discussion. Among those that speak up are academics, former FAA officials, aerospace industry executives, drone entrepreneurs looking to build new companies around UAS technologies and services, local law enforcement, and U.S. intelligence employees. One is a lawyer who specializes in the nascent new practice of drone law. Another represents the newly formed D.C. drone lobby backed by Google GOOG -2.24% and Amazon AMZN -1.36% . There are even realtors interested in using drones for aerial photography, which is currently prohibited by the FAA, and a sailing coach interested in applying drones to maritime sport.

沒有任何人或者觀點主導整場討論。學者、前聯邦航空局官員、航空業高層、希望創立無人機技術或服務公司的企業家、當地立法機構和美國情報人員都暢所欲言，其中還包括一位擅長無人機法律初期實踐的律師，以及一位由谷歌（Google）和亞馬遜（Amazon）資助新成立的無人機遊說團體代表，甚至還有對聯邦航空局禁止的無人機空中攝影感興趣的房地產經紀人，和希望將無人機應用於海洋運動的航海教練。

Above all, there is money present. Representatives of a $2.2 billion investment fund aimed specifically at drone infrastructure—such as air traffic control technologies to allow drones to safely operate alongside conventional aircraft in U.S. airspace—weigh in during the discussion. For more than an hour the discussion ping-pongs around Jenkins’ crowded, sun-dappled patio.

而最重要的是，投資人也出席了活動。22億美元的投資的投資人代表也參與了討論，這些資金專項用於無人機的基礎設施建設，如發展空中交通管制技術，確保無人機在美國領空的傳統航線內安全飛行等。這場你來我往的討論在詹金斯日光斑駁的擁擠小庭院內持續了一個多小時。

There is disagreement but also plenty of consensus. The large drone industry is well represented on Capitol Hill through the defense and aerospace industries, but the small UAS industry—representing aircraft that weigh less than 55 lbs.—needs to better organize and represent itself, the group agrees. Small UAS need size-specific regulations so that a five-pound drone flying at 300 feet is treated differently than a large drone. And most of all, the industry needs to work with the FAA, rather than rail against it—otherwise, little progress will occur.

討論雖有分歧但也達成諸多共識。人們一致認爲，大的無人機行業通過國防和航空航天業，獲得國會山的代表支持，但是小型無人機系統行業（重量低於55磅的飛行器）還需要更好地組織和表現自己。小型無人機需要根據具體尺寸制定的規則，從而使重量爲5磅、飛行高度爲300英尺的無人機和大型無人機得到區別對待。而最關鍵的是，無人機行業需要與聯邦航空局合作而不是抱怨——否則很難取得進展。

Jenkins closes the discussion by informing his guests that this will be the last Robofest held at his home. Though it’s only the second such event, it’s already straining the capacity of his generous patio space. Jenkins says he’s working with universities in the D.C. area to formalize and host the next event sometime in early 2016. The plan: bring today’s agenda to a much larger audience. It would be a mistake to wait any longer, he says.

詹金斯在結束討論時告訴來賓，這將是最後一次在他的家中舉行Robofest。雖然活動只是第二屆，但是活動規模已經使他寬敞的庭院顯得相形見絀。詹金斯表示，他正在和華盛頓特區的一些高校合作，希望使活動正式化，並計劃在2016年初舉行下一次的會議。他們的計劃是把今天的議程帶給更多觀衆——再拖下去恐怕會錯失良機，他說。

“We’re at an inflection point,” says one self-described serial entrepreneur who launched and sold four technology companies. He’s traveled to Robofest from Michigan to hear what others in the industry have to say and for the chance to swap business cards and make a few new contacts in the industry. Naturally, his latest startup is a drone company, one that would provide drone products and services as well as training and certification for pilots—as soon as standards for such certification are codified by the FAA, that is. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty,” he says. “But the time for this industry is now.”

“我們正處在一個拐點上，”一名自稱是連續創業家的人士說道。他已經創立並出售四家科技公司，此次專程從密歇根趕過來參加Robofest，是希望聽聽其他業內人士的觀點，順便交換一下名片，建立一些新的關係。當然，他最近的新創企業是一家無人機公司，主要提供無人機產品和服務以及飛行員培訓和認證——只要聯邦航空局完成此項認證標準的制定，公司就可以開始展開業務。他坦言，“目前還存在很多不確定性，但是無人機行業的時代已經來臨。”

The sun is getting low now and the breeze has died down—it’s finally time to fly. From car trunks and duffel bags and hard plastic carrying cases, out come the drones—from small quad-rotors to massive eight-armed octo-copters in varying shapes and sizes. The entire gathering looks on as one machine after another rises into the sky. In minutes, everyone is 16 again.

太陽逐漸西斜，微風漸止——終於到了飛行的好時候。人們紛紛從汽車後備箱、揹包和硬塑料行李箱中取出無人機——從小型四旋翼到大型八臂八旋翼直升機，形狀和尺寸各異。隨着無人機一個接一個升上天空，恍惚之間，似乎人人都回到了16歲。