[科技前沿]蘋果IPhone有望年內亮相中國

Apple Readies IPhone For China Launch

Apple Inc. is getting closer to clearing the hurdles to start selling iPhones in China, one of the last major phone markets Apple has yet to tap.

The release of the iPhone in China could turbocharge overseas growth for what is already Apple's fastest-growing product. China is the world's largest mobile market by subscribers, with some 687 million subscribers. That compares with more than 270 million subscribers in the U.S.

The iPhone hasn't sold as well in some markets as in the U.S. In Japan, for example, the Apple brand isn't as strong, and regular mobile phones offer many of the same features.

In China, however, touch screens are hot, and there are already a number of popular models that have no keypads. The Apple name has value as a status symbol, and Internet usage through cellphones is increasing.

Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., calculates Apple can sell 2.9 million iPhones in China by the end of 2011. 'Ultimately, it will probably be the fastest-growing overseas market,' he said.

But Apple faces competition from other smart phones that are set to launch in China in coming months. And analysts say the iPhone has struggled in overseas markets, where it has faced more competition from rivals like Nokia Corp., the world's largest mobile phone maker.

'Apple's brand is strongest at home, where the competition is weaker,' said Edward Synder, an analyst for San Francisco-based Charter Equity Research.

Apple's iPhone, which launched two years ago, has so far sold more than 26 million units world-wide in more than 80 countries, but the majority of its sales have come from the U.S.

According to research firm IDC, only 7% of total iPhone sales in the second quarter, ended in June, came from the Asia Pacific, where it is sold in countries like Australia, Hong Kong and India, compared with 49% from the U.S. and 25% from Western Europe. Other sales come from markets in Japan, Latin America, Canada and the Middle East.

An iPhone prototype that was modified for the China market recently received one of the technical licenses the government requires for mobile phones, according to a testing center under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. It is unclear how many approvals are required before the phone can be released.

Apple must still complete negotiations with state-owned wireless operator China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd., which is expected to carry the iPhone, but analysts say those talks are nearing conclusion. Beijing-based research firm BDA China Ltd. said in a report this month that the iPhone is 'now finally set to make its official debut in China in October,' citing interviews with companies including Unicom.

Cynthia Meng, analyst for Merrill Lynch in Hong Kong, said in a report that she also expects the iPhone to launch in the fourth quarter this year, in conjunction with Unicom's planned launch of 3G in October.

A China Unicom spokeswoman said negotiations are still being finalized, and declined further comment. A spokesperson for Apple declined to comment. In an earnings call in July, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said the Cupertino, Calif., company expects to start selling iPhones in China within a year.

Competing products are already in the works in China, adding urgency to the iPhone's launch. China Mobile Ltd., the country's largest carrier by subscribers, plans to start selling smart phones with similar functions to the iPhone this year based on Google Inc.'s Android operating system. On Monday, Taiwanese phone maker HTC Corp. announced it plans to launch seven third-generation phones, including at least one Android phone, with China Mobile by next year.

China Unicom, which holds the only license for the WCDMA 3G technology compatible with the iPhone, is China's second-largest carrier.

Apple has faced regulatory hurdles to launching the iPhone in China, including having to comply with a government rule that requires the removal of the device's wireless Internet function. Analysts say they expect a later rollout of a Wi-Fi enabled iPhone that complies with newly revised regulations.

Launching the iPhone in China would likely boost Apple's small presence in the country. Apple currently has less than 1% market share in personal-computer shipments in China. In the second quarter, Apple sold only about 36,000 units out of 11.7 million PCs shipped in China, according to IDC.

One indication of the iPhone's strong potential in China is the thriving underground iPhone market that already exists there. Though the device isn't officially available, BDA estimates there are already 1.5 million iPhones in use in China, and the handset is on sale everywhere from online vendors to resellers of Apple products in sprawling electronics malls.

People can use the iPhone and buy applications on Apple's iTunes store by unlocking the device with software that enables it to work with any network operator, even if they aren't approved by Apple.

Jessica Wu, a 26-year-old iPhone user in Nanjing, said she bought her first-generation eight-gigabyte iPhone in Nanjing in 2008 for 4,600 yuan ($675). Other high-end phones 'seemed expensive and too professional' compared with the iPhone, she said. 'The [iPhone's] icons are cute.'

'People are paying close attention [to the release of the iPhone],' said Ms. Deng, who declined to give her first name, a saleswoman at an Apple reseller in Beijing called Dragonstar. 'We've already gotten a couple of phone calls from our clients placing orders for iPhones as soon as they arrive.'

The iPhone will likely raise China Unicom's profile as it has for other iPhone operators that have seen their data revenue increase. In Europe, the iPhone has just 15% of smart-phone market share but represents 90% of the total data usage on networks, according to IDC. Ms. Meng of Merrill Lynch rated Unicom a 'buy,' saying the introduction of the iPhone and other data-intensive smart devices 'will be critical catalysts for Unicom to retain and attract mid-to-high end subscribers in highly penetrated urban markets.'

How strongly the iPhone sells in China will depend on the subsidy China Unicom provides for it, analysts say. Chinese consumers spend an Average of 1,100 yuan, or about $160, on cellphones, according to BDA. For comparison, the newest iPhone 3GS model starts at $199 in the U.S. with a two-year service contract, and $599 without any service commitment.

In China, Apple and its operator partner face another challenge: most users prefer to prepay for services rather than subscribe to a monthly service. Average monthly revenue per user in China is also less than $6, in part because overall charges are lower, compared with about $60 for AT&T Inc., the exclusive iPhone provider in the U.S.

Still, the payoff could be huge for Apple. Xiang Ligang, chief executive of Chinese telecommunications news portal , estimates 100 million mobile phone users in China change their phones every year and about 20 million of those buy high-end mobile phones. In some of the biggest cities especially, mobile phones are often seen as status symbols and high-end cellphones typically cost upwards of 3,000 yuan.

蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)距離掃除在中國銷售iPhone手機的障礙更近一步。中國是該公司尚未涉足的主要手機市場之一。

在中國推出iPhone有望大幅提振該產品的海外銷售增長，目前iPhone已經是蘋果公司增長最快的產品。按用戶數量計算，中國是世界上最大的手機市場，擁有約6.87億手機用戶。相比而言，美國有2.70多億用戶。

iPhone在一些市場的銷售情況沒有美國好。舉例來講，在日本，蘋果品牌實力沒有那麼強，普通手機能提供很多同樣的功能。

不過，在中國觸屏手機很熱銷，市場上已經有很多款頗受歡迎的觸屏手機。蘋果品牌的價值在於它是一種地位的象徵，通過手機上網的互聯網用戶在日益增多。

據研究公司Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.的分析師Toni Sacconaghi估計，截至2011年底前，蘋果公司能在中國銷售290萬部iPhone。他說，最終中國可能將成爲蘋果增長最快的海外市場。

不過，蘋果公司面臨着來自其他計劃未來幾個月在華推出的智能手機的競爭。分析師們說，iPhone在海外市場上境況艱難，面臨着諾基亞(Nokia Corp.)等對手的更激烈競爭。諾基亞是全球最大手機生產商。

總部位於舊金山的Charter Equity Research分析師施耐德(Edward Synder)說，蘋果品牌在競爭沒有那麼激烈的美國國內是實力最強的。

到目前爲止，蘋果兩年前推出的iPhone在全球80多個國家已售出逾2,600萬部，不過大部分銷量都來自美國。

據研究公司國際數據公司(IDC)的數據，在截至6月份的第二季度中，iPhone銷量只有7%來自包括澳大利亞、香港和印度在內的亞太地區；相比之下，在美銷量佔了49%，在西歐的銷量佔了25%。其餘的銷量則來自日本、拉美、加拿大和中東的市場。

據工業和信息化部下屬的檢測中心表示，一款爲中國市場改良過的iPhone原型機最近獲得了政府規定的一系列手機技術許可中的一項。不清楚在iPhone推出之前需要獲得幾項批准。

蘋果公司仍必須完成與中國國有無線運營商中國聯通的談判。預計中國聯通將爲iPhone提供無線網絡服務。不過分析師們說，談判正逐漸接近尾聲。總部位於北京的研究公司BDA China Ltd.本月在一份報告中援引包括對中國聯通在內的若干公司的採訪說，iPhone現在終於擬於10月在中國正式亮相。

美林(Merrill Lynch)駐香港分析師Cynthia Meng在一份報告中說，她也預計iPhone將在今年第四季度推出，與中國聯通計劃10月份推出的3G業務同步進行。

中國聯通發言人說，談判仍在收尾之中，並拒絕進一步置評。蘋果公司發言人拒絕置評。在7月份的有關收益的電話會議上，蘋果公司首席營運長庫克(Tim Cook)說，蘋果期待在一年內開始在華銷售iPhone。

iPhone的競爭產品已經開始在中國發起行動，使得iPhone的推出更加緊迫。中國移動計劃今年開始銷售與iPhone有類似功能的智能手機，手機使用的是谷歌(Google)的Android操作系統。臺灣手機生產商宏達國際電子股份有限公司(HTC Corp.)週一宣佈，計劃在明年之前與中國移動聯手推出7款3G手機，包括至少一款使用Android操作系統的手機。按用戶計算，中國移動是中國最大的無線運營商。

中國第二大無線運營商中國聯通持有唯一一張能與iPhone兼容的WCDMA 3G牌照。

蘋果面臨着在中國推出iPhone的監管障礙，包括政府規定取消手機無線上網功能。分析師們說，他們預計遵守新修改後規定的具有Wi-Fi功能的iPhone將在不久後推出。

在中國推出iPhone可能會讓蘋果在大陸微不足道的佔有率有所上升。蘋果目前在中國個人電腦市場中的佔有率不到1%。據IDC稱，今年第二季度，在中國銷售的1,170萬臺個人電腦中，蘋果僅佔約3.6萬臺。

iPhone在中國擁有巨大潛力的一個信號是活躍的iPhone水貨市場。雖然這款手機未在中國正式發佈，但BDA估計，目前中國正在使用的iPhone手機已有150萬部，從網上商店到無處不在的電子商城的蘋果產品經銷商，這款手機到處都有銷售。

即使並未得到蘋果的批准，但在用軟件解鎖iPhone後，它就能在任何運營商的網絡中使用，並可以在蘋果的iTunes商店中購買應用程序。

南京市26歲的iPhone用戶Jessica Wu說，她2008年在南京以4,600元（675美元）的價格購買了第一代8G iPhone手機。她說，與iPhone相比，其它高端手機價格更高，也太專業了。iPhone的圖標看起來很可愛。

在北京一家名爲龍星(Dragonstar)的蘋果經銷店中，一位沒有透露名字的鄧姓女銷售員說，人們都在關心iPhone的推出，我們已經接到了幾個客戶的電話，要求一到貨後就立刻購買。”

iPhone可能會提高中國聯通的形象，就像其它數據收入實現增長的iPhone運營商一樣。IDC稱，在歐洲，iPhone僅佔智能手機市場份額的15%，但佔網絡總數據使用量的90%。美林的Cynthia Meng對中國聯通的評級爲“買進”，稱iPhone和其它數據密集型智能設備的引入對中國聯通在日益普及的城市市場中留住和吸引中高端用戶至關重要。

分析師說，iPhone在中國的銷售情況將取決於中國聯通提供的補貼。BDA稱，中國消費者在一部手機上的平均花費爲1,100元，約合160美元。相比之下，最新款iPhone 3GS手機在美國的起價是199美元，並帶兩年的入網協議，沒有任何入網承諾的手機售價爲599美元。

在中國，蘋果及其運營合作伙伴還面臨着另一個挑戰：大多數用戶喜歡預付款方式的服務，而不是每月繳費。中國的每用戶平均月收入也不到6美元，原因之一是總體收費較低，而iPhone在美國的獨家提供商美國電話電報公司(AT&T)的每用戶平均月收入約爲60美元。

不過，蘋果將獲得巨大的回報。中國通信業專業門戶飛象網()首席執行長項立剛估計，中國每年約有1億手機用戶更換手機，其中約有2,000萬人購買高端手機。尤其是在一些大城市，手機常被視爲是身份的象徵，高端手機的價格一般都在3,000元以上。