澳大利亞與日本擬籤《軍隊到訪協議》

Australia and Japan are set to discuss a major defence co-operation pact, against the backdrop of an increasingly assertive China and lingering concerns over the US commitment to the Asia-Pacific region.

澳大利亞和日本將討論一項重要的防務合作協議，其背景是中國變得愈發自信，同時美國對亞太地區的承諾引發的擔憂揮之不去。

Malcolm Turnbull, Australia’s prime minister, will hold talks on Thursday aimed at finalising a “visiting forces agreement” with Shinzo Abe in Tokyo, which could see both nations’ armed forces train in each other’s countries.

澳大利亞總理馬爾科姆?特恩布爾(Malcolm Turnbull)將於週四在東京與日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)舉行會談，旨在敲定一項《軍隊到訪協議》(Visiting Forces Agreement)。根據該協議，兩國武裝力量可能會在對方國家訓練。

It would be the first such agreement entered into by Japan, although it has a longstanding “status of forces” pact with the US that sets the legal parameters for the stationing of American troops on its territory.

這將是日本簽訂的首份此類協議，儘管日本與美國很早就簽訂了《駐軍地位協定》、爲美軍在日本駐紮確立了法律標準。

“Prime Minister Abe and I are committed to strong defence co-operation through joint exercises, information sharing and defence industry collaboration,” Mr Turnbull said ahead of the leaders’ meeting. “We are working to formalise this in our reciprocal access agreement that will further enhance our defence interoperability.”

“安倍首相和我致力於通過聯合演習、情報共享和防務產業合作來開展強有力的防務合作，”特恩布爾在兩位領導人舉行會談前夕表示，“我們將致力於令其成爲我們互惠准入協議的正式組成部分，該協議將進一步增強我們的防務互通性。”

The proposed “visiting forces agreement” is the latest step in a progressive deepening of diplomatic and military ties between Canberra and Tokyo, as they seek to respond to increasing tensions on the Korean peninsula and China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.

擬議的《軍隊到訪協議》是逐漸深化澳大利亞與日本之間外交與軍事合作的最新舉措，兩國試圖對朝鮮半島日益緊張的局勢以及中國在南中國海的領土主張作出迴應。

Donald Trump’s election as US president has also prompted both countries to intensify their efforts to build partnerships across the region, as they fear a potential US retreat from global leadership.

此外，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統也促使澳大利亞和日本加大努力增強在該地區的合作，他們擔心美國可能會退出全球領導地位。

“Japan doesn’t enter into these types of agreements lightly,” said Euan Graham, analyst at the Lowy Institute think-tank in Sydney. “This will provide a framework so the two countries do not have to negotiate separate agreements every time they want to conduct exercises.”

“日本不會輕率簽訂這類協議，”悉尼智庫洛伊研究所(Lowy Institute)分析師尤安?格雷厄姆(Euan Graham)表示，“這將提供一個框架，使兩國不必在每次希望開展演習時都要商談單獨的協議。”

Japanese officials said a “visiting forces agreement” would be complex and played down the chances of a conclusion this week. Mr Abe and Mr Turnbull may agree at the political level, however, and regional security issues would be at the centre of their wider discussion.

日本官員表示《軍隊到訪協議》十分複雜，他們淡化了本週達成協議的可能性。然而，安倍和特恩布爾可能會達成政治共識，地區安全問題將是他們更廣泛討論的核心。

Mr Abe’s diplomatic goal is to build a coalition in Asia around principles such as freedom of navigation, multilateral trade deals and the negotiated settlement of territorial disputes. He aims to make it harder for China to change the status quo with its growing economic and military power.

安倍的外交目標是，圍繞航行自由、多邊貿易協議以及談判解決領土爭端等原則，在亞洲建立聯盟。他的目標是讓中國更難以憑藉其日益增長的經濟和軍事實力來改變現狀。

As one of the region’s largest and richest democracies, Australia is a top priority for Mr Abe. Tokyo regards Canberra as a “quasi-ally”: one of a handful of countries, including the UK, with which it shares objectives and military co-operation short of an alliance.

澳大利亞作爲該地區最大也是最富有的民主國家之一，是安倍實現該目標的重中之重。日本把澳大利亞視爲“準盟友”，即與日本擁有共同的目標和軍事合作、但未建立聯盟關係的國家，包括英國在內的幾個國家都屬於這一類。

Mr Turnbull has a similar goal in bolstering the rules-based order in Asia, a region that is central to Australia’s economic prosperity and security. In November Australian officials joined counterparts from Japan, India and the US at a meeting in Manila to restart the “quad” — a diplomatic initiative set up a decade ago to counterbalance China’s growing power in the region.

特恩布爾也有類似目標，即支持基於規則的亞洲秩序。該地區是澳大利亞經濟繁榮和國家安全的核心所在。去年11月，澳大利亞官員與日本、印度和美國官員一起參加了在馬尼拉召開的會議，重新啓動了“四方安全對話”——10年前爲制衡中國在亞洲不斷增長的實力而提出的外交倡議。

Canberra has also adopted a tougher approach to China over the past year, passing laws against foreign interference in its own affairs and criticising Beijing’s aid programme in the South Pacific.

過去一年，澳大利亞還對中國採取了更爲強硬的態度，通過了針對外國干涉本國事務的法律，並指責了北京方面在南太平洋地區的援助計劃。

Some critics warn Australia’s deepening defence relationship with Tokyo risks entangling it in Japan’s difficult relationship with China.

一些批評人士警告稱，澳大利亞不斷深化與日本的防務關係，有可能使其捲入日本與中國的緊張關係中。

Hugh White, professor at Australian National University, said a “visiting forces agreement” could prove to be a stepping stone towards a full military alliance with Japan.

澳大利亞國立大學(Australian National University)教授休?懷特(Hugh White)表示，《軍隊到訪協議》可能成爲澳大利亞與日本建立全面軍事聯盟的敲門磚。

“Does anyone believe Australia and Japan’s strategic interests converge enough to support each other in the event of a conflict with China? This is muddled thinking,” he said.

他表示：“有人認爲澳大利亞與日本的戰略利益共同點多到足以讓雙方在與中國發生衝突時互相支持嗎？這是異想天開。”