馬克龍帶來一線曙光

There are politicians and there are leaders who change the weather. France’s Fifth Republic has had its share of politicians. In Emmanuel Macron it has now chosen a rainmaker as president.

這個世界既有普通的政界人士，也有可以呼風喚雨的領袖。法蘭西第五共和國有過不少政界人士。埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)的當選意味着，這個國家選出了一位呼風喚雨的總統。

At this point, it is almost mandatory to list the ifs and buts. France is a deeply divided nation (I thought that was what happened at elections). A touch above a third of the voters felt driven to cast their ballot in favour of Marine Le Pen’s noxious National Front. Mr Macron’s En Marche! has yet to win seats in the National Assembly. Powerful trade unions are lined up against any proposals for economic modernisation. Remember Barack Obama’s “Yes We Can”? Well, Americans have now put Donald Trump in the White House.

此時此刻，列出“如果”和“但是”幾乎是強制義務。法國如今是一個分裂的國家（選舉的時候，難道不是都會發生這種情況嗎？）。略高於三分之一的選民竟然有動力投票支持馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)的令人討厭的國民陣線(National Front)。馬克龍的“前進”(En Marche!)尚未在國民議會(National Assembly)贏得席位。強大的工會正聯合起來，反對任何推動經濟現代化的提議。還記得巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)那句“是的，我們可以”(Yes We Can)嗎？沒錯，美國人現在讓唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)入主了白宮。

Cavils and caveats are inevitable, but their constant enunciation even before Mr Macron has crossed the threshold of the Elysee Palace speaks to the collapse of faith in politics. The ancien regime is gripped by fatalism — watch Britain’s moderate Labour MPs hurl themselves over the cliff rather than confront their hard-left leader Jeremy Corbyn. If nothing else, Mr Macron’s victory ought to restore a measure of confidence to politics, in France and beyond. Leaders with the courage of their convictions can change things.

挑刺和警告是不可避免的，但它們甚至在馬克龍還沒有進入愛麗捨宮(Elysee Palace)之前就沒完沒了地出爐，表明人們對政治的信心已經坍塌。宿命論籠罩着“舊制度”——看看英國工黨(Labour)的溫和議員們寧可眼看着自己在即將舉行的大選中遭遇慘敗，也不願挑戰該黨的極左領導人傑裏米?科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)，就會明白這一點。即使沒有什麼別的意義，馬克龍的勝利應該會在一定程度上恢復人們對政治的信心，無論在法國還是在其他國家都是如此。有勇氣堅持自己信念的領導人，可以改變現狀。

The digital age holds other temptations for commentators. It too often demands that the world be described in grand sweeps. Thus Mr Trump’s elevation to the US presidency signed the death warrant of liberal democracy. Mr Macron’s spectacular success has brought it back to life. The real world is not quite so obligingly neat.

對評論員而言，數字時代還有着其他誘惑。這個時代過於頻繁地要求以恢弘的筆墨來描述世界。於是，特朗普當選美國總統就是簽下了自由民主體制的死刑執行令。而馬克龍的巨大成功讓自由民主體制起死回生。現實世界並不是那麼涇渭分明。

In a continent drenched in pessimism, Mr Macron’s victory should be celebrated as indeed spectacular. Not much more than a year ago he was a minister in Fran?ois Hollande’s failing administration. He dumped the president and the Socialist party to create the En Marche! movement. That took resolve. Still more impressive than the fact of his success was the substance and manner of his campaign.

在一個沉浸於悲觀情緒的大陸，馬克龍的勝利確實應該被當作巨大成功來慶祝。一年多以前，他在弗朗索瓦?奧朗德(Fran?ois Hollande)搖搖欲墜的政府擔任部長。他拋棄了奧朗德和社會黨(Parti socialiste)，轉而創建“前進”運動。此舉需要決心。比他的勝選更令人印象深刻的是他競選的內容和方式。

Politicians have run scared of the populists — afraid to defend the open, tolerant internationalism that has underpinned European peace and prosperity. Mr Macron made no such apologies. He put openness, Europeanism and economic modernisation at the heart of his campaign. Europe’s anthem Ode to Joy played at his victory celebration. Contrast this with the fearful nationalism that compels Theresa May’s British government to haul down the EU flag.

當今政界人士被民粹主義嚇壞。以至於不敢捍衛支撐了歐洲和平和繁榮的開放、寬容的國際主義。馬克龍則充滿了自信。他把開放、歐洲主義和經濟現代化置於競選綱領的核心。在他贏得大選的慶祝活動上響起歐盟盟歌《歡樂頌》(Ode to Joy)。與之形成對比的是，膽怯的民族主義迫使特里薩?梅(Theresa May)領導的英國政府降下歐盟旗幟。

The president-elect set out the pivotal choice of our age, that between competing and retreating — the French choice between exceptionalism and Poujadism. He won. More Europe means more France. Those who quibble about the margin of his victory might recall that Mr Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton and the Brexiters won by only a sliver.

這位當選總統闡明瞭我們這個時代的關鍵選擇：在競爭和退卻之間——對法國來說，則是例外主義和布熱德主義（Poujadism，20世紀50年代法國一個右翼政治運動，主要得到中產階級支持——譯者注）之間的選擇。他贏了。更多歐洲意味着更多法國。那些對他的票數優勢吹毛求疵的人，最好記住特朗普獲得的總票數少於希拉里?克林頓(Hillary Clinton)，而英國退歐也只是以微弱優勢勝出。

In Washington this week, I heard comparisons drawn with Mr Trump. Both presidents in their way are insider-outsiders; both upended their respective political establishments. And, if you want to continue the analogy, Mr Trump has found himself constrained by realities just as Mr Macron will now confront the harsh truths of a fractured France.

上週在華盛頓，我聽到了有人把馬克龍和特朗普相提並論。兩位總統都以各自的方式既是圈內人，又是圈外人；二人都顛覆了各自國家的政治體制。此外，如果你想繼續這種比較的話，特朗普已發現自己受制於現實，正如馬克龍如今將面對法國陷於分裂的殘酷事實。

Superficially attractive, these parallels say very little. Mr Trump arrived at the White House with no more than a set of prejudices, as seen in the capricious chaos that reigns in his administration. You do not have to share Mr Macron’s convictions to see he has a strategy.

這些相同之處表面上奪人眼球，但說明不了什麼問題。特朗普只是帶着一系列偏見入主白宮，這體現於他領導的行政當局所表現出的任性混亂。相比之下，你不需要認同馬克龍的信念，就可以看出他有一套戰略。

European democracy now has two powerful champions. Not so long ago Angela Merkel’s unapologetic defence of liberal values during the migration crisis threatened to break her grip on power. Now, all the signs are the German chancellor is heading back for a fourth term in the coming autumn elections.

如今歐洲民主有兩大支持者。不久前，安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)在移民危機期間毫無悔意地維護了自由主義價值觀，差點因此被趕下臺。如今，一切跡象都表明，在今年秋天的大選中，這位德國總理將獲得第四任期。

Plenty of tussles await Europe’s two leading politicians. I have no doubt that Ms Merkel will cling to the economic orthodoxy that can suffocate weaker economies. She has already warned that “German support cannot replace French policymaking”. Mr Macron will struggle at once to push through his reforms at home and persuade Berlin that a monetary union needs an economic framework. But argument and compromise have always been the way of Franco-German co-operation.

很多角力等待着歐洲兩位主要的領導人。我毫不懷疑，默克爾將堅持可能絞殺較弱經濟體的經濟正統。她已經警告“德國的支持不能取代法國的政策制定”。馬克龍將竭力同時在兩方面發力：推動國內改革，說服柏林方面貨幣聯盟需要一個經濟框架。但是，爭論和妥協一直是法德合作的方式。

The continent’s two leading powers are now pulling in the same direction. For Mr Macron the reinvigoration of France and the restoration of faith in European collaboration are indivisible. Ms Merkel has long complained that, in the absence of a serious French partner, Germany has carried the burden of European leadership. Mr Macron’s prospectus comes at a price. But Berlin cannot afford to let this opportunity slip.

歐洲兩個主要大國如今向着同一個方向努力。對於馬克龍來說，重振法國和恢復人們對歐洲合作的信念是不可分割的。默克爾則長久抱怨稱，沒有一個像樣的法國夥伴，使德國獨自承擔領導歐盟的重擔。馬克龍的登場將會有代價。但德國負擔不起讓這個機會溜走的後果。

Mr Trump caught a tide. The financial crash, stagnating incomes, the insecurities and dislocations of technological advance and globalisation and, yes, the insouciant indifference of elites to the fate of the-left behind, has corroded faith in the institutions of liberal democracy. The US president has no answers to the challenges. To the contrary, he heads an administration in thrall to its own set of plutocrats.

特朗普抓住了時勢。金融危機、收入停滯、全球化和技術進步帶來的不安全感和錯位、以及精英階層對那些被拋在後面的人羣的漠不關心，腐蝕了人們對自由民主制度的信心。美國總統沒有應對這些挑戰的答案。相反，他領導的行政當局受制於自己的一批財閥。

Mr Macron presents a moment of optimism. He is a reminder that voters are still prepared to listen to a reasoned case. His success is not predestined, but nor is his failure. There is life yet in liberal democracy. The Brexit rupture aside, Europe looks in better shape than it has for some time. Now it has the promise of leadership.

馬克龍帶來了一個令人樂觀的時刻。他提醒世人，選民仍然願意傾聽理性的聲音。他並非命中註定一定成功，但失敗也不是他無法擺脫的宿命。自由民主體制仍有生命力。撇開英國退歐這一割裂，歐洲目前的狀況看起來好於一段時間以來。現在它有了領導力的希望。