中國全面推動製造強國戰略,引發歐美擔憂

BEIJING — China has charted out a $300 billion plan to become nearly self-sufficient by 2025 in a range of important industries, from planes to computer chips to electric cars, as it looks to kick-start its next stage of economic development.

北京——中國在啓動下一個經濟發展階段之際，制定了一項耗資3000億美元的計劃，到2025年之前要在包括飛機、計算機芯片和電動汽車在內的一系列重要行業基本實現自給自足。

But big companies in the rest of the world worry that it is more than that: an unfair advantage in China’s home court, and perhaps elsewhere.

但世界其他地區的大企業擔心的不止於此：在國內市場，或許還有其他地方，中國恐怕會享有不公平優勢。

A report by a European business group on Tuesday said the “Made in China 2025” program, which calls for enormous Chinese government assistance to 10 industries, would force out competitors from abroad and lead to government-subsidized global players that would compete unfairly. Indeed, the Chinese government’s plan says Chinese industries that benefit should own as much as 80 percent of their home market in just eight years.

歐洲一家商業機構週二發表報告稱，《中國製造2025》號召爲十個行業提供巨大的政府支持，會將國外競爭者擠出中國市場，造就拿政府補貼進行不公平競爭的全球玩家。實際上中國政府的這項計劃稱，在短短八年時間裏，獲益的中國行業在國內市場的佔有率應該達到80%。

“The Chinese make it clear that they want to be the global champion” and are trying to carve out market share now, said Joerg Wuttke, the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, which wrote the report.

現在，“中國明確表示它想成爲全球冠軍”，而且在竭力開拓市場份額，撰寫該報告的中國歐盟商會(European Union Chamber of Commerce in China)主席約爾格·伍德克(Joerg Wuttke)說。

The plan’s mechanism is simple: It would provide large, low-interest loans from state-owned investment funds and development banks; assistance in buying foreign competitors; and extensive research subsidies, all with the goal of making China largely self-sufficient in the targeted industries.

這項計劃的機制很簡單：國有投資基金和發展銀行將提供大量低息貸款；協助收購國外競爭者；提供大量的研究補貼，目的都是讓中國在目標行業基本實現自給自足。

Although European and American government officials have expressed misgivings about the plan, the Chinese government has made clear in recent days that it plans to press on.

儘管歐洲和美國政府官員表達了對這項計劃的疑慮，但中國政府在最近幾天明確表示，它打算加緊推進該計劃。

“We will fully implement our plan for developing strategic emerging industries,” Premier Li Keqiang said in his annual speech to the National People’s Congress on Sunday. “We will accelerate R. & D. on and commercialization of new materials, artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, bio-pharmacy, 5G mobile communications and other technologies, and develop industrial clusters in these fields.”

“全面實施戰略性新興產業發展規劃，”國務院總理李克強上週日在一年一度的人民代表大會發言中講道。“加快新材料、人工智能、集成電路、生物製藥、第五代移動通信等技術研發和轉化，做大做強產業集羣。”

In addition to the sectors Mr. Li cited, the plan also covers the manufacturing of aircraft, robots, electric cars, rail equipment, ships and agricultural machinery. China seeks to wean itself off imports from companies like Boeing, Airbus, General Electric, Siemens, Nissan, Renault, Samsung and Intel.

除了李克強提到的這些行業，該計劃還覆蓋了飛機、機器人、電動汽車、鐵路設備、船舶和農業機械製造領域。中國力圖使自己擺脫從波音(Boeing)、空中客車(Airbus)、通用電氣(General Electric)、西門子(Siemens)、日產(Nissan)、雷諾(Renault)、三星(Samsung)和英特爾(Intel)等企業進口產品的局面。

The Chinese government has long worried that the country’s economy is still too concentrated in fairly low-end manufacturing. Making and assembling Apple iPhone components, for instance, is done by hundreds of thousands of workers in China, while the better-paid, value-added design and marketing work is done in the United States, although by many fewer employees.

一直以來，中國政府擔心本國經濟太集中於低端的製造業。比如，製造和組裝蘋果公司(Apple)的iPhone手機零件是在中國由幾十萬工人完成，而報酬更高、附加值更大的設計和市場營銷工作則是在美國進行，儘管這類工作需要的員工要少很多。

Although a large-scale shift of factories from the West to China has created tens of millions of Chinese jobs, the country’s leaders worry that an increasingly well-educated younger generation is rejecting factory work for higher-paid office jobs.

雖說工廠大規模地從西方搬到中國爲其創造了數以千萬計的工作機會，但這個國家的領導層擔心受教育程度越來越高的更年輕一代不願意在工廠工作，而是尋找報酬更高的辦公室工作。

But the report by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China was lengthy and critical. The United States Chamber of Commerce in Washington plans to issue a similar report next week.

但中國歐盟商會的那份報告不僅篇幅長，而且是批評性的。位於華盛頓的美國商會(The United States Chamber of Commerce)計劃下週發佈一份類似的報告。

The Chinese Communist Party has long relied on five-year plans to guide national economic growth. But “Made in China 2025” sets out broader targets.

中國共產黨長期依賴五年計劃來指導全國的經濟增長。但《中國製造2025》開始制定更廣泛的目標。

“It feels like a five-year plan, but this time not only domestic but international,” Mr. Wuttke said.

“它看起來像一個五年計劃，只不過這一次不限於國內市場，而是國際的，”伍德克說。

The timing is delicate. President Trump had campaigned about confronting China on trade and currency issues. He has not yet done so, but his advisers have been considering a revision to corporate taxes that would effectively impose a 20 percent tariff on all imports, not just from China.

時機也很微妙。特朗普總統在競選期間曾呼籲在貿易和貨幣問題上直面中國。他還沒有具體落實，但他的顧問一直在考慮修改企業所得稅，對所有進口商品——不只是來自中國的——徵收20%的關稅。

China is also laying the legal groundwork for challenging at the World Trade Organization a refusal by the United States to accept that China is a market economy for purposes of anti-dumping trade cases. It will make a similar challenge to European Union rules.

爲了反傾銷貿易訴訟，美國拒絕接受中國是市場經濟，爲了在世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)中就此事發起挑戰，中國也正在打下法律基礎。它還將對歐盟的規則提出類似挑戰。

China’s top Commerce Ministry officials will hold their annual media briefing Saturday and may outline China’s trade policy goals for this year.

中國商務部高層官員將於週六舉行一年一度的媒體吹風會，或許會概括地提出中國今年的貿易政策目標。

Along with subsidies at home, the Chinese plan calls for a shopping spree overseas.

除了在國內的補貼，中國的那項計劃還呼籲進行海外大采購。

“Chinese high-tech investments need to be interpreted as building blocks of an overarching political program. It aims to systematically acquire cutting-edge technology and generate large-scale technology transfer. In the long run, China wants to obtain control over the most profitable segments of the global supply chains and production networks,” according to a report on “Made in China 2025” released in December by the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a German think tank.

“中國高科技投資需要被理解爲給一個至關重要的政治方案搭建組成部分。它的目標是有計劃、有步驟地獲得前沿技術，促成大規模技術轉讓。從長遠看，中國是想控制全球供應鏈和生產網絡中最有利可圖的部分，”德國智庫機構墨卡託中國研究中心(Mercator Institute for China Studies)在去年12月發佈的一份有關《中國製造2025》的報告中寫道。

For all of its funding and targets, analysts are divided about how effective the policies will be. Critics point out that its structure could lead to overspending by local governments and inefficient investment.

儘管有資金有目標，但分析人士對這些政策能在多大程度上起效意見不一。批評者指出，它的結構可能會導致地方政府超支和無效投資。

Still, the Mercator report said that the policy is likely to bolster a “small vanguard” of leading Chinese companies, adding, “These front-runners are likely to dominate their sectors on the Chinese market and become fierce competitors in international markets.”

不過，墨卡託那份報告稱，這項政策有可能增強作爲“一小羣先遣部隊”的中國領軍企業的實力。它還表示，“這些領先者有可能主導自己所在行業的中國市場，併成爲國際市場上的有力競爭者。”