FT社評 卡斯特羅身後的美古關係
This time, the news of Fidel Castro’s death is true, rather than a product of wishful thinking.
這一次，菲德爾.卡斯特羅(Fidel Castro)逝世的消息是真的，而不是一種一廂情願的想象。
The Cuban revolutionary died on Friday.
上週五，這位古巴革命者逝世。
His legacy will be discussed in the days to come.
在接下來的幾天裏，人們將就他身後留下的遺產開展討論。
Ironically, though, his passing is largely symbolic: Havana has prepared for this moment for years.
不過，諷刺的是，他的逝世在很大程度上只具有象徵意義：古巴政府已爲這一刻準備了許多年。
Since he was stricken by a near-fatal illness a decade ago, his younger brother, Raúl Castro, 85, has been in charge.
自十年前菲德爾患上一種近乎致命的疾病以來，他的弟弟、85歲的勞爾.卡斯特羅(Raúl Castro)一直在掌權。
Nonetheless, symbols are important.
不過，象徵意義也十分重要。
Over the past eight years, Raúl, spurred by the economic collapse of Cuba’s closest ally Venezuela, has led a modest programme of reforms to Cuba’s Soviet-style economy.
過去八年裏，在古巴最親密盟友委內瑞拉經濟崩潰的刺激下，勞爾領導了對古巴蘇聯式經濟的溫和改革。
He also welcomed Barack Obama to Havana earlier this year, a culmination of the US president’s efforts at rapprochement after half a century of mutual enmity.
今年早些時候，他還曾歡迎美國總統巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)到訪哈瓦那，這是奧巴馬恢復兩國關係的努力的頂峯。
Fidel opposed both.
此前，兩國在長達半個世紀的時間裏一直相互敵對。
Though retired, he was treated by hardliners as a court of appeal against domestic reforms.
對上述兩項舉動，菲德爾都不支持。儘管他已經退休，古巴的強硬派人士依然把他當作反對國內改革的上訴法庭。
Even as a doddering invalid in a comfy track suit, he was a symbol for anyone in the US opposed to closer relations.
即使他身穿舒適的運動服、拖着蹣跚的病弱之軀，對於美國任何反對拉近美古關係的人來說，他依然是一個象徵符號。
Fidel’s death, therefore, increases the chances of change at the margin.
因此，菲德爾的逝世增大了古巴改革的可能性。
It may give Raúl space to pursue the domestic reforms that Cuba so desperately needs.
它也許會爲勞爾實施古巴急需的國內改革創造空間。
It also removes an emotional barrier to further US engagement.
它也消除了美國進一步加強對古關係的一大心理障礙。
Much depends on whether president-elect Donald Trump decides to work with or challenge communist Havana.
未來美古關係在很大程度上取決於美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)是決定與共產主義的古巴政府合作還是對抗。
Mr Trump sent mixed messages about Cuba during his campaign.
在競選期間，在古巴問題上特朗普傳遞出的信號並不一致。
At times he said he said he would continue Mr Obama’s policy of restoring diplomatic relations and loosening travel restrictions, although he would get a better deal.
有時候特朗普表示，會繼續實施奧巴馬恢復對古外交關係、放寬旅遊限制的政策——不過他會達成更好的協議。
At other times he has said he would reverse the policy —
而在另外一些場合，特朗普還曾表示會撤銷這一政策。
Easily done, as most of Mr Obama’s measures were executive decisions, reversible with the stroke of a pen (lifting the Cuban embargo, rather than relaxing it, is up to Congress).
這一點很容易做到，因爲奧巴馬的舉措多數是行政決策，動動筆就可以將其撤銷（不過，解除對古巴的禁運——而不是放寬——則要由美國國會決定）。
Mr Trump, who owes little to Cuban-American lawmakers such as Florida Senator Marco Rubio, an opponent in the Republican primaries, has given little indication as to which way he may go.
對於類似佛羅里達州參議員馬可.魯比奧（Marco Rubio，特朗普在共和黨初選時的對手）這樣的古巴裔美籍議員，特朗普並不虧欠什麼。特朗普現在並未表現出會選擇哪條政策路線的跡象。
He may pressure Havana for concessions — freedom for political prisoners or preferential access for US goods in the Cuban market — in order to show he is a strongman.
爲了顯示自己是個強勢人物，他也許會向古巴政府施加壓力迫使對方讓步——釋放政治犯或者讓美國商品優先進入古巴市場。
Cuba is unlikely to give immediate reason for warmer relations.
古巴不太可能立即提供美古關係轉暖的理由。
Retreating into the bunker is Havana’s usual response to uncertainty.
對於不確定的局面，古巴政府通常的反應方式是撤回堡壘中。
A clampdown on dissent is likely.
古巴可能會出現對異見人士的打壓。
Amid a week of national mourning, the government has launched a campaign to have millions of Cubans sign a pledge to be faithful to Fidel’s ideas and our socialism.
在爲期一週的全國哀悼期間，古巴政府發起了一場運動，讓成百上千萬的古巴人簽署承諾，發誓忠於菲德爾的理念和我們的社會主義。
Further on, the socialist bureaucracy is inherently opposed to change.
此外，這個社會主義的官僚體系天性反對變革。
And should Raúl step down in 2018, as he has pledged, his children and in-laws could sustain the dynasty.
一旦2018年勞爾依照承諾下臺，他的子女及其配偶可能會繼續將這一王朝維持下去。
But Cuba — shorn of financial support from Venezuela — is posturing from a position of weakness.
不過，失去了委內瑞拉財政支持的古巴不論擺出什麼姿態實際都處於弱勢。
If Mr Trump really believes in America first, he will engage with Havana rather than retreat.
如果特朗普真的相信美國優先，他會與古巴政府接觸而不是後撤。
It is in the US interest to compete with Russia and China in the Caribbean, and to allow US business entrée to Cuba.
在加勒比海地區與俄羅斯和中國競爭並允許美國企業進入古巴，符合美國的利益。
Cuba, which takes a hard line on drug trafficking and played a key role in getting Colombia’s Marxist rebels to lay down their guns, is a natural ally against terrorism.
古巴對毒品走私持強硬立場，還曾發揮關鍵作用讓哥倫比亞的馬克思主義叛軍放下武器。它將是美國打擊恐怖主義的天然盟友。
Continued rapprochement does not guarantee a happy end to Fidel’s rule but increases the chances of a soft landing.
雙方繼續和解雖然並不能確保菲德爾家族的統治以愉快的方式結束，卻可以增大軟着陸的可能性。
The alternative is to slam the door.
另一個選擇則是關上美古之間的大門。
That would only hamper, rather than speed, the limited but important changes taking place in Cuba.
這麼做只會阻礙、而不是加速古巴正在發生的有限而重要的改革。
These have improved the lives of many Cubans and weakened the control of the state over their lives.
這些改革措施已改善了許多古巴人的生活，並削弱了政府對他們生活的控制。
For Fidel, reversing that progress would be a last victory from the grave.
對菲德爾來說，如果這一變革進程逆轉，那會是他在墳墓裏的最後勝利。
