絲綢之路基建計劃 資金從何而來

“If you want to develop, build a road,” runs the Chinese phrase. Beijing’s grand design to construct transport links between China and Eurasia represents the export of this simple philosophy. Beijing believes that building roads, railways and other infrastructure will help create a market in Eurasia for its goods.

中國人常說：“要想富，先修路。”北京方面在中國與歐亞大陸之間構建交通運輸網的宏偉計劃，代表着輸出這一簡單哲理。中國政府相信，修建公路、鐵路及其他基礎設施將有助於爲中國商品在歐亞大陸開闢市場。

“The Chinese experience illustrates that infrastructure investment paves the way for broad-based economic social development, and poverty alleviation comes as a natural consequence of that,” says Jin Liqun, president of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（AIIB，簡稱亞投行）行長金立羣（見上圖）表示：“中國的經驗表明，基礎設施投資爲廣泛的經濟社會發展鋪平了道路，減貧是它的一個自然而然的結果。”

But potential problems abound with financing the planned $890bn in investments. The payback period is often long, construction delays are common and political instability is widespread in the 64 countries embraced by the “New Silk Road” strategy.

但要爲8900億美元的投資計劃提供融資還存在很多潛在問題。投資回收期往往很長，工期延遲很常見，而且“新絲綢之路”(New Silk Road)戰略覆蓋的64個國家存在普遍的政治不穩定。

The AIIB, a China-led multilateral institution with 57 member countries, is part of the potential solution. However, it plans to increase operations gradually, investing $1.5bn-$2bn in infrastructure this year, $3bn-$5bn next year and around $10bn in 2018, Mr Jin says.

作爲中國牽頭的、擁有57個成員國的多邊機構，亞投行是潛在解決方案的一部分。然而，金立羣表示，亞投行計劃逐步加大運作規模，今年在基礎設施領域投資15億至20億美元，明年投入30億至50億美元，2018年投入約100億美元。

The financing mother lode for the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative — as the Silk Road project is known in Beijing — will continue to come from bilateral lending by the Chinese policy banks, analysts say.

分析人士認爲，“一帶一路”(One Belt, One Road)倡議的主要融資來源仍將是中國政策性銀行提供的雙邊貸款。

“China will most likely have more impact operating through the usual bilateral mechanisms such as the policy banks, including the Export-Import Bank of China and the China Development Bank,” says Sarah Lain, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank.

倫敦智庫——英國皇家聯合軍種研究院(Royal United Services Institute)研究員薩拉•萊恩(Sarah Lain)說：“中國通過通常的雙邊機制，如中國進出口銀行(Export-Import Bank of China)和國家開發銀行(China Development Bank)等政策性銀行運作，將最有可能產生更大的影響力。”

The Export-Import Bank of China, which promotes foreign trade and investment, lent more than $80bn in 2015. By comparison, the Asia Development Bank lent $27.1bn. More than 1,000 projects financed by the ExIm Bank were in 49 countries involved in the OBOR initiative, according to Xinhua, the official news agency.

旨在促進對外貿易與投資的中國進出口銀行，2015年發放貸款逾800億美元。相比之下，亞洲開發銀行(Asia Development Bank)只發放了271億美元。據官方的新華社報道，由中國進出口銀行提供融資的1000多個項目遍及“一帶一路”倡議涉及的49個國家。

Not all projects financed by Chinese policy banks are driven by commercial logic, says Tom Miller, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, a research company. A $46bn plan to finance an “economic corridor” through Pakistan, linking the port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea to north-west China, is motivated partly by the need to find an alternative route for oil imports from the Middle East to avoid rising tensions in the South China sea. Mr Miller says Chinese officials privately admit they expect to lose 80 per cent of their investment in Pakistan, 50 per cent in Myanmar and 30 per cent in central Asia.

研究公司龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)分析師湯姆•米勒(Tom Miller)表示，並非所有中國政策性銀行提供融資的項目都由商業邏輯驅動。中國計劃爲貫穿巴基斯坦的一條“經濟走廊”——連接瀕臨阿拉伯海的瓜達爾港與中國西北地區——提供460億美元融資，該計劃的動機在一定程度上是中國需要爲從中東進口石油尋找一條替代路線，以防南中國海緊張局勢影響能源供應。米勒表示，中國官員私下承認，他們預計在巴基斯坦的投資將損失80%，在緬甸及中亞的投資將分別損失50%和30%。

Notwithstanding such forecast losses, Chinese lenders are starting to syndicate participation in OBOR projects to international private sector investors and lenders.

儘管預期損失如此之大，中國各銀行正開始組建辛迪加，將一帶一路項目的參與權兜售給國際私人部門投資者和銀行。

“We are seeing a shift among the Chinese institutions in the OBOR projects toward syndication to international pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, private equity funds and others,” says Henry Tillman, chairman and chief executive officer at Grisons Peak, a London-based investment bank.

倫敦投行Grisons Peak董事長兼首席執行官亨利•蒂爾曼(Henry Tillman)稱：“我們看到一帶一路項目中的中資機構正在轉向國際養老基金、保險公司、主權財富基金、私人股本基金及其他機構，尋求建立辛迪加。”

He says institutions are increasingly seduced by the promise of long-term returns of 6 to 8 per cent on OBOR infrastructure. Even some government agencies appear keen. IE Singapore, the state-owned trade development board, has agreed to a partnership with China Construction Bank to finance OBOR projects, with about $22bn in funding envisaged.

他表示，國際機構日益被一帶一路基建項目承諾的6%至8%的長期回報率所吸引。就連一些政府機構似乎都急切地要參與其中。新加坡國有的國際企業發展局(IE Singapore)已同意與中國建設銀行(China Construction Bank)合作爲一帶一路項目提供融資，計劃提供資金約220億美元。