盎格魯文化圈 英國帝國時代的遺產

When supporters of the Vote Leave campaign sketch out a future for Britain outside the EU, they often point to the “Anglosphere” of English-speaking nations — bequeathed by Britain’s imperial past. So Barack Obama’s intervention in Britain’s EU referendum last week was a potentially devastating moment for the Brexit campaign. Here was the president of the US — the most powerful member of the Anglosphere — arguing forcefully for Britain to stay inside the EU.

當英國退出歐盟運動的支持者爲脫離歐盟後的英國勾勒未來時，他們經常說到由英語國家構成的“盎格魯文化圈”(Anglosphere)——英國帝國時代的遺產。因此，巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)上週對英國退歐公投的介入，可能成爲退歐運動的災難性時刻。這位美國（盎格魯文化圈最強大的成員）總統來到英國，有力地主張英國應該留在歐盟內。

In desperation, some members of the Leave campaign have suggested that Mr Obama might harbour a special animus against Britain. Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, flirted with the theory that the “part-Kenyan president’s ancestry” might explain his views.

無奈之下，退歐運動的一些支持者暗示，奧巴馬或許對英國抱有特殊敵意。倫敦市長鮑里斯•約翰遜(Boris Johnson)提到，這位“總統擁有的肯尼亞血統”或許可以解釋他的觀點。

In reality, no special explanation is needed for Mr Obama’s remarks. It has long been US policy to support British membership of the EU.

實際上，奧巴馬的話無需特殊解釋。支持英國留在歐盟內，是美國長期以來一直堅持的政策。

Yet the Brexiters are on to something in a broader sense. For all the ritualistic tributes to the enduring nature of the special relationship, something has changed during the Obama years. That shift is a growing awareness in both Washington and London of the rise of Asia, which has made both the US and the UK reconsider their approaches to the world — and each other.

然而，退歐運動的支持者在更廣泛意義上切中了要害。雖然對英美特殊關係經久不衰有許多禮節性的讚頌，但有些東西在奧巴馬擔任總統期間發生了變化。這變化就是，華盛頓和倫敦方面都日益認識到了亞洲的崛起。這種認識已使美英兩國開始重新考慮自己的對外政策，包括對彼此的政策。

President Obama’s personal background does indeed matter here. But the significant point is not that he is the first African-American president, but that he is the first Pacific president. Mr Obama was brought up in Hawaii, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and spent several years of his childhood in Indonesia. Like no other president before him, he really grasps the vital and growing importance of the Asia-Pacific region.

在這方面，奧巴馬總統的個人背景的確有影響。但關鍵點不在他是首位非洲裔美國總統，而在於他是首位來自太平洋地區的美國總統。奧巴馬在太平洋上的夏威夷長大，並在印度尼西亞度過了數年童年時光。與歷屆總統都不同的是，他真正懂得亞太地區關鍵且日益增長的重要性。

The signature foreign policy initiative of the Obama years has been America’s “pivot to Asia”. Amid all the turmoil in the Middle East and Ukraine, the US president has remained grimly, stubbornly, determined to devote more of his country’s diplomatic, military and economic resources to Asia.

美國“轉向亞洲”(pivot to Asia)戰略是奧巴馬時期美國提出的標誌性外交政策。雖然中東、烏克蘭動盪不斷，但奧巴馬一直頑強、固執、堅決地將美國更多的外交、軍事和經濟資源投向亞洲。

There was much talk, during Mr Obama’s London visit, about whether the US might strike a separate trade deal with a post-Brexit Britain, or whether it would focus more on the US-EU Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Mr Obama controversially suggested that the UK would be at the “back of the queue” in any quest for a separate trade deal.

奧巴馬訪問倫敦期間，很多人都在談論：美國是否有可能與脫離歐盟的英國單獨簽署貿易協定，或者是否會將更多注意力放在美歐之間的《跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴關係協定》(TTIP)上。奧巴馬暗示，如果英國想要簽署單獨貿易協定，它將排在“隊伍末尾”。奧巴馬的這一言論引發爭議。

But the reality is that America’s biggest trade priority is neither the UK nor the EU — it is Asia. While negotiations on TTIP are still years from conclusion, the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal has already been agreed between the US and 11 other nations in the Asia-Pacific region, and now awaits ratification.

但現實是，美國在貿易上最優先考慮的對象既非英國，也不是歐盟，而是亞洲。圍繞TTIP的談判仍需數年纔能有結果，但美國與亞太地區其他11個國家已就《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)達成一致，現在協議正等待美國國會批准。

Some Brits and Europeans hope that the departure of President Obama might mean that the US places less emphasis on Asia and pivots back to the Atlantic. That is unlikely. Any US president who looks at America’s strategic priorities is likely to come to conclusions similar to Mr Obama’s. Hillary Clinton, his likeliest successor, is a firm believer in the “pivot” to Asia, as she made clear in a 2011 article entitled “America’s Pacific Century”.

一些英國人和歐洲人希望，奧巴馬總統任期的結束或許意味着美國會降低對亞洲的重視程度，重新將重心轉向大西洋。這種情形不大可能出現。任何一位美國總統對美國的各個戰略優先對象進行權衡之後，都可能得出與奧巴馬類似的結論。最有希望成爲奧巴馬繼任者的希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)是“轉向”亞洲戰略的堅定支持者——正如她在2011年發表的一篇題爲《美國的太平洋世紀》(America’s Pacific Century)的文章中表明的那樣。

The British, in particular, have few grounds to complain about America’s current preoccupation with Asia and the Pacific, since the Cameron government has been conducting its own pivot to Asia — even at the expense of ties to the US. David Cameron has led a succession of high-profile trade delegations to Asia and signed Britain up as a founder member of the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, against the express wishes of the US government. One member of the Obama administration complained (to the Financial Times) about Britain’s “constant accommodation” of China.

英國尤其沒有理由抱怨美國當下對亞太地區的專注，因爲卡梅倫政府一直在實施自己的轉向亞洲戰略——甚至不惜損害與美國的關係。英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)曾多次高調率領貿易代表團訪問亞洲，而且忤逆美國政府的明確意願，讓英國成爲了總部設在北京的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行(AIIB)的創始成員國。奧巴馬政府的一名官員曾向英國《金融時報》抱怨英國“不斷遷就”中國。

Of course, there are still deep historic and cultural ties linking Britain and America. Anybody who doubts that should consider the number of leading members of the US foreign-policy establishment who once studied at Oxford. Susan Rice, Mr Obama’s national security adviser, Bill Burns, who was Mrs Clinton’s deputy at the State Department, and Jake Sullivan, one of her closest advisers, are all Oxford alumni.

當然，依然有深厚的歷史、文化紐帶將英美兩國連在一起。所有對此存疑的人都應該看看，美國外交政策圈有多少主要成員曾就讀於牛津大學(Oxford)。奧巴馬的國家安全顧問蘇珊•賴斯(Susan Rice)、希拉里擔任國務卿時的副國務卿比爾•伯恩斯(Bill Burns)以及希拉里最親近的顧問之一傑克•沙利文(Jake Sullivan)，都是牛津大學校友。

These kinds of links help give Britain easy access in Washington. But, in future, even elite educational ties may be thinner. Stephen Schwarzman, an American financier, has just set up a major scholarship scheme, inspired by the Rhodes scholarships to Oxford, to take high-achieving Americans and others to study at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Mr Schwarzman’s not-unreasonable assumption is that, in future it might be more important for aspiring American leaders to understand China.

這些聯繫可以幫助英國很容易地接近華盛頓。但未來，即使精英校友的紐帶都可能變得薄弱。美國金融家蘇世民(Stephen Schwarzman)剛剛設立了一個大規模獎學金項目——受牛津大學羅茲(Rhodes)獎學金的啓發——資助優秀的美國及其他國家學生到北京的清華大學(Tsinghua University)學習。蘇世民不無道理的假設是，對有抱負的未來美國領導者而言，瞭解中國或許更加重要。

The rise of Asia is also changing the nature of Canada and Australia, two other key members of the historic Anglosphere. Australia does 10 times as much trade, by value, with China and Japan as it does with Britain. The population of Toronto, Canada’s largest city, is now around 35 per cent ethnic Asian, and the figure is well over 40 per cent for Vancouver on the Pacific coast.

亞洲的崛起也正在從根本上改變盎格魯文化圈的另外兩個關鍵成員——加拿大和澳大利亞。按價值算，澳大利亞與中國和日本的貿易是其與英國貿易的十倍。在加拿大最大城市多倫多，如今約35%的人口是亞裔，而在太平洋沿岸的溫哥華，亞裔比例大大超過40%。

Still, any Brits who feel nostalgic for the Anglosphere, and a little resentful about Mr Obama’s “back of the queue” comments, might reflect how much they still benefit from the cultural power of the US. The traditional Anglosphere may be in disrepair. But a different sort of Anglosphere has emerged in Brussels, with English now the common language of the EU institutions.

不過，所有懷念盎格魯文化圈而且對奧巴馬的“隊伍末尾”言論感到些許憤恨的英國人，或許都應該想一想，他們仍多麼大地受益於美國的文化力量。傳統的盎格魯文化圈或許已經沒落。但一種不同類型的盎格魯文化圈已出現在布魯塞爾——英語如今是歐盟各機構的通用語言。