重新審視文明的衝突 The clash of civilisations revisited

Ever since the late Samuel Huntington predicted that international politics would be dominated by a “clash of civilisations”, his theory, first outlined in 1993[pub summer 1993 foreign affairs - was there an earlier iteration?], has found some of its keenest adherents among militant Islamists. The terrorists who inflicted mass murder on Paris are part of a movement that sees Islam and the west as locked in inevitable, mortal combat.

已故的塞繆爾亨廷頓(Samuel Huntington)曾預言，國際政治將由“文明的衝突”主導。該理論最早是在1993年提出的（發表在1993年夏天的《外交》雜誌(Foreign Affairs)上）。自從提出以來，亨廷頓的理論在伊斯蘭激進分子中找到了部分最忠實的擁躉。對巴黎實施大規模殺戮的恐怖分子，就從屬於一項運動，該運動認爲伊斯蘭教和西方註定陷入不可避免的生死衝突。

Leading western politicians, by contrast, have almost always rejected Huntington’s analysis. Even George W Bush said “there is no clash of civilisations”. And everyday life in multicultural western nations, most of which have large Muslim minorities, offers a daily refutation of the idea that different faiths and cultures cannot live and work together.

相比之下，西方主要政客差不多總是在否認亨廷頓的分析。甚至連喬治圠布什(George W. Bush)都曾表示：“不存在文明的衝突。”文化多元的西方國家（它們多數都擁有規模龐大的穆斯林少數民族羣體）的日常生活，每天都駁斥着認爲不同信仰和文化無法共生、合作的觀點。

In the aftermath of the Paris attacks, that core idea needs to be reaffirmed. And yet a necessary restatement of liberal values should also not prevent a sober acknowledgment of some malign global trends. The fact is that hardline Islamism is on the rise — even in some countries, such as Turkey, Malaysia and Bangladesh, previously regarded as models of moderate Muslim societies. At the same time, the expression of anti-Muslim prejudice is entering the political mainstream in the US, Europe and in India.

在巴黎發生襲擊事件之後，這一核心理念必須加以重申。然而，對自由價值觀的必要重申，也不應阻止人們清醒地認識部分有害的全球趨勢。事實上，強硬派伊斯蘭主義正在崛起——即使在土耳其、馬來西亞和孟加拉國等部分此前被視爲溫和穆斯林社會典範的國家也是如此。與此同時，帶有反穆斯林偏見的言論也正在進入美國、歐洲和印度的主流政治。

Taken together, these developments are narrowing the space for those who want to push back against the narrative of a “clash of civilisations”.

綜合而言，對於那些想要反駁“文明的衝突”說法的人來說，這些變化正在壓縮他們的空間。

Terrorist attacks, such as those in Paris, promote tensions between Muslims and non-Muslims — as they are intended to. But there are also longer-term trends at work that are driving radicalisation. One of the most pernicious is the way in which the Gulf states, in particular Saudi Arabia, have used oil money to spread intolerant forms of Islam into the rest of the Muslim world.

類似巴黎那樣的恐怖主義襲擊，加劇了穆斯林和非穆斯林之間的緊張關係——而這正是這些襲擊的用意所在。不過，還有一些更長期的趨勢在起作用，在推動世界的激進化。其中一個最具破壞性的趨勢，就是海灣國家（尤其是沙特阿拉伯）利用石油資金，向穆斯林世界的其他地區傳播不包容的伊斯蘭教形式。

The effects are now visible in Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Africa and Europe. Malaysia has long been held up as an example of a successful and prosperous, multicultural nation with a Muslim-Malay majority and a large ethnic-Chinese minority. But things are changing. Bilahari Kausikan, a former head of the foreign ministry in neighbouring Singapore, notes a “significant and continuing narrowing of the political and social space for non-Muslims” in Malaysia. He adds: “Arab influences from the Middle East have for several decades steadily eroded the Malay variant of Islam... it with a more austere and exclusive interpretation.” The corruption scandal that is currently undermining the government of Prime Minister Najib Razak has increased communal tensions, as the Malaysian government has fallen back on Muslim identity politics to rally support. One junior government minister even recently accused the opposition of being part of a global, Jewish conspiracy against Malaysia.

這種趨勢的影響目前在東南亞、印度次大陸、非洲和歐洲都可以看到。馬來西亞長期被樹立爲成功而繁榮的多元化國家典範，不僅有占人口多數的穆斯林馬來人，還有龐大的華裔少數民族。然而，事情正在發生變化。曾任馬來西亞鄰國新加坡外交部常任祕書的比拉哈里考西坎(Bilahari Kausikan)指出，馬來西亞“非穆斯林的政治和社會空間正遭遇顯著而持續性的壓縮”。他補充說：“幾十年來，來自中東的阿拉伯的影響一直在穩步侵蝕着馬來西亞的伊斯蘭教……用更嚴厲、更排他的解釋取而代之。”目前，腐敗醜聞正在削弱馬來西亞總理納吉布拉扎克(Najib Razak)政府的影響力，加劇了馬來西亞族羣間的緊張。與此同時，馬來西亞政府已開始藉助穆斯林身份政治提升支持率。最近，一名低級的政府部長甚至還曾指責反對黨是針對馬來西亞的全球性猶太陰謀的一部分。

In Bangladesh, a Muslim country with a secular constitution, radical Islamists have been responsible for murders of intellectuals, bloggers and publishers, over the past year. There has also been a rise in attacks on Christians, Hindus and Shia Muslims. Much of this violence has been perpetrated by Isis or al-Qaeda. But, as in Malaysia, the rise of radical Islam seems to have been heavily influenced by the Gulf states — through the funding of education and the connections forged by migrant workers.

孟加拉國是一個擁有世俗化憲法的穆斯林國家。在孟加拉國，激進的伊斯蘭主義者要爲過去一年裏發生的多起針對知識分子、博客作者和出版界人士的謀殺負責。此外，針對基督教徒、印度教徒和什葉派(Shia)穆斯林的攻擊也已增加。大量此種暴行都是“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)或基地組織(al-Qaeda)犯下的。不過，和馬來西亞類似，激進伊斯蘭教的崛起似乎在很大程度上受到了海灣國家的影響——這種影響是通過教育資助和外來勞動者打造的人脈關係施加的。

For many in the west, Turkey has long been the best example of a majority-Muslim country that is also a successful secular democracy. But in the era of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, religion has become much more central to the country’s politics and identity. Mr Erdogan has been labelled as “mildly Islamist” by The Economist and others. But there was nothing mild about his statement in 2014 that westerners — “look like friends, but they want us dead, they like seeing our children die”.

對西方許多人來說，長期以來土耳其一直是一個最佳典範：這裏穆斯林占人口多數，同時也是個成功的世俗化民主國家。然而，在土耳其總統雷傑普吠伊普埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的時代，宗教在土耳其政治和身份認同中的重要性已大大提高。埃爾多安已被《經濟學人》(The Economist)和其他媒體打上了“溫和伊斯蘭主義者”的標籤。但是，他在2014年的講話可一點也不溫和，他說，西方人“雖然看起來像朋友，實際上他們卻希望我們滅亡，他們喜歡看着我們的孩子死去”。

While India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has not said anything this inflammatory about Muslims, he has long been accused of tolerating anti-Islamic prejudice and violence. During his first months in office, Mr Modi reassured some critics by concentrating on economic reform. But in recent months, members of his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party have ramped up anti-secular and anti-Muslim rhetoric — with the lynching of a Muslim man, accused of eating beef, making national headlines.

儘管印度總理納倫德拉莫迪(Narendra Modi)並未說過關於穆斯林的這麼煽動性的話，長期以來他一直被指責縱容反伊斯蘭的偏見和暴力活動。在上任的頭幾個月，莫迪通過將注意力集中於經濟改革打消了部分批評人士的疑慮。然而最近幾個月，莫迪領導的印度教民族主義政黨人民黨(Bharatiya Janata Party)的成員，加大了反世俗化和反穆斯林的言論。一位被控食用牛肉的穆斯林男子被私刑處死的消息，成爲印度的頭條新聞。

In Europe, even before the Paris attacks, the migrant crisis had helped to fuel the rise of anti-Muslim parties and social movements. As Germany has opened its doors to refugees from the Middle East, violent attacks on migrant hostels have risen. In France, it is widely expected the far-right National Front will make significant gains in next month’s regional elections.

在歐洲，在巴黎的襲擊事件之前，難民危機就已助長了反穆斯林黨派和社會運動的興起。在德國向來自中東的難民打開大門之際，對難民收容所的暴力襲擊活動也已增加。在法國，人們普遍預期極右翼國民陣線(National Front)在下個月的大區選舉中將大幅領先。