中國南海造島缺乏戰略邏輯

The US Navy this week finally made good on its promise to challenge Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. By sending an American warship within 12 miles of an artificial island that China has constructed, Washington underscored that it does not recognise Chinese claims to territorial waters lying thousands of miles from its mainland. Beijing’s reaction to the voyage of the USS Lassen was shrill — accusing the US of acting illegally and urging it to refrain from further “dangerous” and “provocative” actions.

美國海軍本週終於兌現了其挑戰中國在南中國海領土主張的諾言。通過派遣一艘軍艦駛入中國建造的一個人工島12海里範圍內，美國明確表明了自己不承認中國對距中國大陸數千英里以外的水域的主權聲索。中國對美國海軍“拉森”號驅逐艦(USS Lassen)此次航行行動反應強烈——譴責美方此舉爲非法，敦促其不得采取進一步的“危險、挑釁”行爲。

Any hint of military conflict between the two largest economies in the world, both of them nuclear-armed, needs to be taken seriously. Both sides have a responsibility to proceed with appropriate caution. But it is the US that seems to have international law and precedent on its side, in challenging the idea that the construction of artificial islands can create new territorial waters. By contrast, as it pushes its claims in the South China Sea through an island-building programme, rather than through the international legal system, Beijing is in danger of making a strategic mistake that could disrupt the peaceful trading environment that has been so crucial to its own rise.

美國和中國是全球最大的兩個經濟體，都擁有核武器，任何暗示這兩國可能爆發軍事衝突的蛛絲馬跡都需要認真對待。中美雙方都有責任適度謹慎前行。但在挑戰建造人工島能創造新領海這一看法方面，國際法和先例似乎站在美國這邊。相比之下，隨着中國通過造島計劃（而非通過國際法律體系）推動其在南中國海的領土主張，北京方面可能會犯下戰略失誤，可能會破壞一直以來對其自身崛起至關重要的和平貿易環境。

True, some of America’s allies are worried that Washington is being needlessly provocative. One argument is that there is no evidence that China intends to use its maritime claims to disrupt freedom of navigation in the Pacific. Another is that, as an emerging superpower, China will naturally seek to establish a zone of influence in its immediate neighbourhood — and that resistance is pointless and dangerous.

確實，美國的一些盟友擔心，美國做出的挑釁舉動是沒有必要的。一種觀點是，沒有證據證明中國打算利用其海上領土主張破壞太平洋的航行自由。另一種觀點認爲，作爲一個新興超級大國，中國自然會尋求在其臨近地區建立勢力範圍，抵制是沒有意義和危險的。

Washington is nevertheless right to reject the notion of a Chinese “sphere of influence” that would allow Beijing to assert territorial or maritime claims that are rejected by its neighbours — and that would probably not withstand the test of international law. If China were to get its way, it would set a dangerous precedent with global implications — particularly in the aftermath of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea.

然而，美國對中國“勢力範圍”概念的反對是正確的：這個“勢力範圍”將令中國能夠維護遭其鄰國反對的領土或海上主張，而且中國的做法很可能經受不住國際法的考驗。如果中國得手，會開創一個有全球性影響的危險先例，尤其會對俄羅斯非法吞併克里米亞的後果產生影響。

Beijing, for its part, is in danger of pursuing a policy driven by national prestige — but with little underlying strategic logic. As the world’s largest exporter of manufactured goods and its largest importer of oil, China has some reason to worry about the security of the sea lanes that supply its economy. But even if it could turn the whole of the South China Sea into a Chinese lake, Beijing would not secure the sea passages that fuel its economy — since these stretch all the way to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf.

就中國本身而言，它有奉行一種受國家面子驅動、但缺乏戰略邏輯作支撐的政策的風險。作爲全球最大製成品出口國和最大石油進口國，中國有理由擔心爲其經濟帶來供給的海上航道的安全。然而，即便中國能將整個南中國海變爲中國的一個湖，它也無法確保爲其經濟提供物資的各條海上通道的安全，因爲這些通道一直通向印度洋和波斯灣。

Pouring money into the Chinese navy and into new missiles that potentially threaten the aircraft carriers that are the basis of American power in the Pacific could spark needless antagonism with the US. But it would not do much to solve China’s underlying security dilemma.

航空母艦是美國在太平洋實力的基礎，中國向海軍和可能威脅航空母艦的新導彈投入資金，可能會引發美國不必要的對抗。但這對解決中國的潛在安全難題作用不大。

The wiser course for China would be to stick to an alternative formula that has worked well for it over the past 40 years. It should rely on the mutual interests created by globalisation as the best guarantee that all sides will work to preserve freedom of navigation. China’s efforts to develop a new Silk Road across central Asia towards Europe and the Middle East will also provide an alternative to an over-reliance on vulnerable sea lanes.

對中國而言更明智的做法應該是，堅持一種在過去40年一直行之有效的替代政策。中國應依靠全球化帶來的共同利益，作爲各方將努力維護航行自由的最佳保障。中國在中亞地區開發一條新的通向歐洲和中東的“絲綢之路”的努力，也會爲過度依賴脆弱的海上航線提供替代選擇。

It was always likely that the rise of China would provoke tensions with the United States, the world’s dominant power. The US Navy’s South China Sea mission is an important new test in the relationship. Both sides must now make an effort to defuse tensions. A deterioration in relations between the world’s two largest economies would serve no one’s interests.

中國的崛起總是有可能引發它與全球霸主美國的緊張關係。美國海軍在南中國海的行動是對兩國關係提出的新重要考驗。雙方現在都必須努力緩解緊張關係。全球最大的兩個經濟體之間關係惡化，對任何人都沒有好處。