世界舊秩序分崩離析 The fading of an ageing world order

Russia’s deployment of forces to Syria is its most significant direct military intervention in the Middle East since the end of the second world war. It will further destabilise a region that is characterised by misrule, sectarianism, regional rivalries and four civil wars that have killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions.

進兵敘利亞是二戰結束以來，俄羅斯在中東地區最重大的直接軍事幹預。此舉將加劇該地區的動盪局勢，這個地區的特點是暴政、教派主義、地區對抗以及四場導致數十萬人喪命、數百萬人流離失所的內戰。

President Vladimir Putin’s gambit is only the latest indication that, after 70 years, the postwar international order is fraying. The US, the country around which the postwar order was constructed, still has a strong hand but it often plays that hand poorly.

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin)的舉動，只是戰後國際秩序——歷經70年後——分崩離析的最新跡象。居於戰後秩序核心位置的美國依然實力強大，卻經常不能很好地運用它的實力。

In the past 15 years, its global approach has fluctuated. President George W Bush pursued a muscular grand strategy aimed at imposing America’s will on the world. His invasion of Iraq is one of history’s finest own goals. By contrast, President Barack Obama has run a reality-based foreign policy. But he did not merely learn the lessons of the Bush presidency; he overlearnt them. His unwillingness to act forcefully at crucial moments has weakened the deterrent effect of US power.

在過去15年裏，美國的國際政策變化不定。小布什總統(George W Bush)奉行一種秀肌肉的大戰略，力圖把美國的意志強加給全世界。他發動入侵伊拉克行動的目標，是歷史上最冠冕堂皇的目標之一。不同於小布什，現總統巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)實行立足現實的外交政策。但他不光是吸取了小布什政府的教訓，還過度學習了。他在緊要關頭不願採取強有力的行動，弱化了美國力量的威懾效果。

The recent history of US policy — both its mis-steps and its changeability — raises questions about whether Washington will continue to act as the global hegemon. To those who relish the prospect of a more modest American presence in the world, I say: be careful what you wish for.

美國近年的政策——包括失誤和多變——讓人懷疑美國是否將繼續扮演全球霸主。對於樂見美國在世界上充當更溫和存在的人士，我要說一聲：當心你許的願成真！

Meanwhile, the rest of the west looks set to retire from the global stage — and not only because most western countries have ageing populations. For decades, Europe has spurned power politics in favour of forming an ever more perfect, peaceful union. The failures in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as the bloc’s economic debacles and political wobbles, have encouraged this parochialism. Now, when European leaders come upon an unpleasant scene, for example, a neighbour set upon by an aggressor — like the priest and the Levite with the Good Samaritan — most of them prefer to pass by on the other side.

另一方面，其他西方國家看來勢將走下全球舞臺，原因不僅在於多數西方國家都有人口老齡化問題。幾十年來，歐洲已放棄了強權政治，傾向於締造一個日趨完善、和平的聯盟。在阿富汗和伊拉克的失敗，以及歐盟的經濟不景氣和政治困頓，都助長了這種狹隘主義。如今歐洲領導人遇到不愉快的場景時，比如鄰居受到了入侵者的攻擊——就像祭司、利未人以及仁慈的撒馬利亞人的故事那樣——多數人寧願繞道而行。

Even the UK has lowered its ambitions, stepping back from the foreign policy front line and cutting the budgets of its armed forces, the Foreign Office and the BBC World Service. The British will spend the next few years debating whether Scotland should leave the UK, and whether the UK should leave the EU. That will not leave much time to think about the rest of the world.

甚至連英國都雄心大減，從外交政策前線退了下來，削減了武裝部隊、外交部還有英國廣播公司國際部(BBC World Service)的預算。在未來幾年，英國人將會討論蘇格蘭是否應當脫離英國，以及英國是否應當脫離歐盟。他們將沒有太多時間思考世界其他地區的問題。

Even as western countries stand down, in each of the most significant global theatres — Europe, the Middle East and Asia — strong challengers to the liberal order are stepping up.

在全球各個至關重要的地區——歐洲、中東和亞洲——西方國家正在走下舞臺，而自由秩序的強大挑戰者開始走上舞臺。

Russia seeks to establish a sphere of influence in its corner of Europe and regain its position as an indispensable global actor. Mr Putin’s tactics include subversion, propaganda and, disturbingly, the acquisition of territory by force. Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 breached the central tenet of the international state system. His Syrian operation is a stick in the eye of the Americans.

俄羅斯尋求在其歐洲領土周邊建立勢力範圍，重獲其作爲不可或缺的世界角色的地位。普京的戰術包括顛覆、宣傳，以及武力奪取領土（引起了不安）。2014年，俄羅斯對克里米亞的非法吞併，違反了國際國家體系的核心原則。他在敘利亞的行動讓美國人憤憤不已。

Meanwhile, Iran is taking advantage of turmoil in the Middle East to extend its power. This year’s international deal is probably the best option for curbing Tehran’s nuclear programme. But, if the country can make this much trouble while tied down by western sanctions, how will it behave when they fall away?

另外，伊朗正利用中東的動盪局勢擴張自己的實力。今年達成的國際協議可能是遏制伊朗核計劃的最好選擇。但是，如果在西方制裁的羈絆下，伊朗都能製造如此大的麻煩，制裁取消之後，該國又將有何作爲？

In the long term, Beijing’s challenge to the existing order is the most serious because wealth and power are shifting east, towards Asia. China’s successes in the past four decades have been dizzying. The country is building up economic weight befitting its tremendous size. However its foreign policy is highly uneven, switching between the constructive and the combative.

從長遠來看，中國對現行秩序構成最嚴峻挑戰，因爲全球財富和權力正在東移，轉向亞洲。中國在過去40年裏取得了令人炫目的成功。中國正在打造跟自身規模相符的經濟影響力。然而，中國的外交政策是極度不連貫的，在建設性和好鬥性之間搖擺。

The differences between these three countries — Russia, Iran and China — are as great as their similarities. None of them hopes to displace the US as the world’s leading power. Their advantage lies in the fact that they can concentrate their forces regionally while Washington must disperse its forces globally.

俄羅斯、伊朗和中國這三個國家既極度相似，又存在天壤之別。它們都不希望取代美國成爲全球主導國家。它們的優勢是可以在地區集中發揮自己的力量，而美國必須把力量分派在全球範圍。

The west’s drooping confidence, and the rise of great-power challengers, makes it harder for global institutions to address global problems. The UN has reached its biblical threescore years and 10, and it is showing its age.

西方信心的下降，加上大國挑戰者的崛起，導致全球性機構更難解決全球性問題。聯合國(UN)成立70年了，已是老態龍鍾。

Take the most wicked problem in the UN’s care. The World Meteorological Organization reports that 2014 was the hottest year on record. This century, 14 of the 15 hottest years on record have been registered. We know the implications of global warming are likely to be severe. Yet successive UN conferences have failed to agree on binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions.

就以聯合國面臨的最危險問題爲例。世界氣象組織(World Meteorological Organization)報告稱，2014年是記錄在案的最熱年份。有記錄的15個最熱年份中，14個出現在本世紀。我們知道，全球變暖的後果可能很嚴重。不過，多屆聯合國大會都未能就設定有約束力的溫室氣體排放量上限達成一致。

The story is similar when it comes to other international arrangements. For example, the refugee protection regime has been overwhelmed by the recent exodus from the Middle East. Clearly it no longer serves the interests of either states or refugees — but there is no prospect of it being reformed.

在其他國際安排方面，情況也類似。例如，難民保護機制已被近來的中東大逃亡壓垮。很明顯，該機制再也不能服務於國家或難民的利益，卻看不到改革的希望。

International co-operation has never been more vital — or more rare. Dean Acheson called his memoir of his time as President Harry Truman’s secretary of state Present at the Creation. Acheson’s generation of US statesmen did indeed create the postwar world. But, 70 years later, their creation is in trouble. There is a growing sense that we are present at the destruction — the destruction of an order that has served the world well.

國際合作從未像現在這樣重要，也從未像現在這樣罕見。在美國總統哈里尠腧門(Harry Truman)任期內擔任國務卿的迪安縠奇遜(Dean Acheson)寫過一本有關那個時代的回憶錄——《參與創造世界》(Present at the Creation)。那個時代的美國政治家的確創造了戰後世界。但是，70年過後，他們創造的秩序陷入了困境。人們越來越有一種感覺，我們正在“參與毀滅”(present at the destruction)——毀掉一個曾對世界有益的秩序。