盧布貶值推升俄中農業貿易 Weaker Russian rouble boosts agricultural trade with China

Battered by a deepening recession, lower commodity prices and the prospect of a credit crunch, Russia can count at least one advantage of having a devalued national currency: soaring agricultural trade with China.

遭受衰退加劇、大宗商品價格下跌重創，還面對信貸危機風險的俄羅斯，至少可以指望從盧布貶值獲得一個優勢：對華農業貿易大幅飆升。

Russian exports of foodstuffs, ranging from chocolate to sunflower oil and animal fodder, increased exponentially over the three months to the end of July, especially from regions close to Russia’s eastern neighbour, in a rare example of tangible benefits of the weaker rouble. While overall Russian exports to China dropped 23.5 per cent in the first six months of this year, agricultural exports are up 33 per cent in value terms and almost 80 per cent in volume.

從巧克力到葵花籽油和動物飼料，在截止7月底的3個月裏，俄羅斯食品出口（尤其是從毗鄰其東方鄰國的地區）出現指數級增長，成爲盧布貶值帶來切實利益的少數例子之一。儘管在今年頭6個月期間，俄羅斯對華出口總體下降23.5%，但農業出口額上升33%，出口量增長近80%。

“China always wanted to export its own products to our country, but now China is suddenly interested in Russian agricultural products,” Alexei Alexeenko, a senior official at Rosselkhoznadzor, Moscow’s agricultural watchdog, said last week. “With regard to agricultural products, Russia and China have many new very significant supply projects. They range from pork to vegetables.”

莫斯科農業監管機構——俄羅斯動植物防疫檢疫局(Rosselkhoznadzor)的高級官員阿列克謝阿萊克延科(Alexei Alexeenko)最近表示：“中國過去總是想把自己的產品出口至我們的國家，但現在中國突然對俄羅斯農產品產生了興趣。就農產品而言，俄羅斯和中國有許多新的重大供應項目，涉及從豬肉到蔬菜的各種農產品。”

In the process a weaker rouble, which has shed 45 per cent of its value to the US dollar over the past year, has helped cement a bilateral economic relationship that has otherwise been slow to meet the ambitious expectations set by leaders in Moscow and Beijing.

在此過程中，在過去一年裏相對於美元貶值45%的盧布，幫助鞏固了雙邊經貿關係——從總體上說，俄中經貿關係在實現兩國領導人的宏偉預期方面進展緩慢。

Amid its political fallout over Ukraine with Europe, traditionally Russia’s most important trade and investment partner, Moscow has pledged to step up economic ties with Asia, and particularly with China. It has been trying to replace western funding — blocked by sanctions — with Chinese loans, and signed big-ticket energy deals.

歐洲傳統上是俄羅斯最重要的貿易和投資合作伙伴。面對烏克蘭危機帶來的政治後果，莫斯科承諾與亞洲（尤其是中國）加強經貿往來。俄羅斯試圖用中國貸款取代被制裁掐斷的西方資金，並簽署了鉅額能源協議。

But Chinese banks have approached the Russian market with caution, and trade between the two countries has shrunk, albeit to a lesser extent than Russia’s overall foreign trade.

但中國的銀行對俄羅斯市場的業務態度謹慎，雙邊貿易下降，儘管降幅小於俄羅斯整體對外貿易的下降幅度。

Many of the small-time Chinese entrepreneurs who long formed the bulk of economic co-operation with Russia have returned home as the thin margins of their trading businesses evaporated with the drop of the rouble.

中俄經貿合作的主體一向是小本經營的中國生意人，現在他們當中有許多人回國，因爲他們的貿易業務的微薄利潤隨着盧布貶值而消失。

“There is nowhere else where we can cut cost. There is simply no longer a profit to be made from selling Chinese consumer goods here,” says Gong Yu, who closed her business selling clothing, shoes and accessories in Moscow last month.

上月關了自己在莫斯科的服裝、鞋和飾品店的龔宇（音譯）表示：“我們找不到地方可以削減成本。在這裏銷售中國消費品怎麼也賺不到錢了。”

However, new investors are appearing. Since the end of last year, a growing number of Chinese delegations have been visiting Russia in search of agricultural land for sale or lease.

然而，新的投資者正在出現。自去年年末以來，越來越多的中國代表團訪問俄羅斯，尋找可供出售或出租的農地。

“This is a good time to come here, prices are low and locals are more willing to rent to us,” said a retired official from the central Chinese province of Henan who toured the Moscow region, the north Caucasus republic of Dagestan and the southern Urals this summer to look at agricultural land.

來自河南省的一位退休官員今年夏季考察了莫斯科地區、北高加索地區的達吉斯坦共和國和烏拉爾南部地區物色農地。他表示：“現在是來這裏的好時機，價格低，當地人也更願意租給我們。”

In the Far East, the Russian region closest to Mongolia, China, North Korea and Japan, this trend has been even more pronounced as Chinese agricultural investors have long been present there. State-owned and private farms, mostly from the north-eastern Chinese provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin, have been leasing additional land in the Russian border regions of Primorye, the Jewish Autonomous Region, Amur and Khabarovsk.

在最靠近蒙古、中國、朝鮮和日本的俄羅斯遠東地區，這種趨勢甚至更爲明顯，中國農業投資者早就在這裏立足。國有和私營農場——大多來自中國東北的黑龍江和吉林——一直在濱海邊區(Primorye)、猶太自治州(Jewish Autonomous Region)、阿穆爾(Amur)和哈巴羅夫斯克(Khabarovsk)等俄羅斯邊境地區租賃土地。

“We used to produce for the Russian market, but now we only keep some of our vegetables for our own consumption and sell the rest back to China,” says Liao Hong, a young man whose family runs a farm in the Jewish Autonomous Region.

全家在猶太人自治區經營農場的年輕人廖紅（音譯）表示：“我們過去爲俄羅斯市場生產蔬菜，但現在我們只保留一些蔬菜自用，其餘蔬菜運回國內銷售。”

Larger investors are also jumping on the bandwagon.

較大的投資者也在加入這種潮流。

“Agriculture, aquaculture... take a good look at these in the regions close to the border going forward,” said Xie Ping, executive vice-president of China Investment Corporation, the sovereign wealth fund, which claims to have invested about $7bn in Russia over the past seven years.

中國主權財富基金——中國投資公司(CIC)的副總經理謝平表示：“農業、水產養殖業……我們將認真研究在邊境地區推進這些行業。”中投稱，過去7年裏在俄羅斯投資了大約70億美元。

Russian companies are benefiting from the more advantageous exchange rate as well. State-owned Rusagro started exporting sunflower oil to China last year. Russian chocolate and confectionery makers in the Far Eastern federal district, meanwhile, have reported an eleven-fold increase in sales to China over the quarter to August.

俄羅斯公司也受益於更爲有利的匯率。國有的俄羅斯農業集團(RusAgro)去年開始向中國出口葵花籽油。與此同時，遠東聯邦管區(Far Eastern federal district)的俄羅斯巧克力和糖果製造商報告稱，在截止今年8月的季度裏，對華銷售增長了11倍。

But China’s growing hunger for Russian foodstuffs does not meet with an unconditional welcome.

但中國對俄羅斯食品不斷增長的需求並未受到無條件的歡迎。

Many local officials accuse Chinese agricultural investors of over-exploiting the land and doing long-term damage to Russia’s resources.

許多俄羅斯當地官員指責中國農業投資者過度開發土地，對俄羅斯資源造成長期破壞。

“The Chinese all plant soybeans. Soybeans are a good product, and they export well to China, but experts say we have to do crop rotation,” said Alexander Levintal, governor of the Jewish Autonomous Region.

猶太自治州州長亞歷山大萊溫塔爾(Alexander Levintal)表示：“中國人全都種植大豆。大豆是很好的農產品，它們很容易出口中國，但專家說，我們必須採用輪作方式。”

At a recent conference in Vladivostok, the government tried to convince potential investors from neighbouring Asian countries to transition from investing in raw commodities to more value-added goods as well.

最近在符拉迪沃斯託克（Vladivostok，即海參崴——譯者注）舉行的一場會議上，俄方試圖說服來自亞洲鄰國的潛在投資者從投資於原材料轉向投資於附加值更高的產品。

Mr Levintal said: “I hope that they will not only plant soybeans but also build processing facilities in Russia.”

萊溫塔爾表示：“我希望，他們在俄羅斯將不只種植大豆，而且還建造加工廠。”

More fundamentally, there are questions over how Russia’s thinly populated Far East, with a population of just 5m, interacts next to more than 100m people in north-east China without compromising its interests. Moscow considers it a matter of national security to make sure its vast expanses of largely empty land in eastern Siberia will not become a resources appendix for China.

更爲根本的是，人們質疑，人口稀少的俄羅斯遠東地區（只有500萬人口）如何在不損害自身利益的情況下，與逾1億人口的中國東北地區打交道。莫斯科想要確保東西伯利亞基本上未被開發的廣袤土地不會成爲中國的附屬資源，並將此視爲俄羅斯的國家安全問題。

“We must not put too much of our land out there in the hands of the Chinese,” says Igor Lebedev, a deputy speaker of the state Duma, Russia’s parliament. “In the long term, that will become a risk to our sovereignty.”

俄羅斯國家杜馬（即聯邦下議院）副議長伊戈爾列別捷夫(Igor Lebedev)表示：“我們不能將那裏太多的土地交到中國人的手裏。長期而言，那將威脅到我們的主權。”