新救援方案緩解希臘債務危機

ATHENS — Only a day after grim predictions of financial and social collapse in Greece, a scramble appeared underway to work out the details of a new bailout package to bring the country back from the brink of falling out of the euro.

雅典——就在人們做出悲觀預測稱希臘會出現金融與社會崩潰的一天之後，各方似乎正在努力制訂新救助計劃的細節，希望將希臘從離開歐元區的懸崖邊拉回。

As details of the new offer emerged, it appeared the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was capitulating to demands on harsh austerity terms that he urged his countrymen to reject in the referendum last Sunday, like tax increases and various measures to cut the costs of pensions.

隨着新救助計劃的細節浮出水面，希臘總理亞歷克西斯· 齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)看起來對嚴苛的緊縮條款做出了讓步。他曾力勸民衆在上週日舉行的公投中拒絕接受這些條款，比如增稅，以及減少養老金支出的種種舉措。

But Mr. Tsipras sought a three-year bailout loan totaling 53.5 billion euros (about $59 billion) and asked creditors to commit to discussing restructuring the nation’s massive debt. The amount was more than it would have been without a nationwide banking shutdown that has pummeled the economy. If granted, it would come on top of 240 billion euros in bailout loans Greece has received since 2010. Mr. Tsipras seemed to have gained ground on debt relief, his one bedrock demand. Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, finally gave a little on that Thursday, admitting that “debt sustainability is not feasible without a haircut,” or write-down of debt, even if he then appeared to backtrack.

但齊普拉斯隨後尋求獲得535億歐元（約合3690億元人民幣）的三年期救助貸款，並請求債權人承諾討論對該國龐大的債務進行重組的問題。若是沒有出現全國銀行關閉給經濟造成重創的情況，這個金額原本會少一些。如果獲准，這將是希臘繼2010年以來獲得2400億歐元救助貸款後得到的又一輪救助。齊普拉斯似乎在債務減免方面取得了進展，而這是他的一個基本要求。週四，德國財長沃爾夫岡·朔伊布勒(Wolfgang Schäuble)終於做出些許讓步，承認“不進行”債務“減計的話，無法實現債務的可持續性”，儘管他後來似乎改變了口風。

Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland and the president of the European Council, said on Twitter that any “realistic proposal from Athens needs to be matched by realistic proposal from creditors on debt sustainability to create win-win situation.”

波蘭總理、歐洲理事會(European Council)主席唐納德·圖斯克(Donald Tusk)在Twitter發帖稱，“希臘提出切實可行的提議時，債權人也需要提出切實可行的債務可持續性方案與之匹配，這樣才能實現雙贏。”

Mr. Tsipras went before his cabinet to seek a commitment for reform measures in the new plan that, presumably, went beyond what had been offered previously. He will seek the approval of Parliament on Friday. Much may hinge on his ability to persuade the more radical elements of his Syriza party to support a package that in essence was anathema to many of them last week.

齊普拉斯請求內閣承諾在新提議中加入改革的內容。這些措施可能會超越之前的提議。他將於週五尋求議會的批准。這在很大程度上可能取決於齊普拉斯有沒有能力說服他領導的左翼聯盟(Syriza)激進派支持新救助計劃，其中很多人上週對類似的計劃根本就是深惡痛疾。

It is still too early to gauge whether this prospective bailout will be any more effective than earlier pacts in balancing the demands of the creditors against some relief from austerity.

要評判新計劃在平衡債權人要求與減輕緊縮舉措方面是否比之前的救助計劃更有效，現在還爲時過早。

What was breathtaking, however, was how in a matter of hours the entire dynamic in the Greek crisis seemed to shift, from apocalyptic warnings of a Zimbabwe in the Balkans, to a fresh optimism that the basics of a deal could be worked out.

然而，令人驚奇的是，在幾個小時的時間裏，希臘危機的整個態勢似乎就發生了轉變，從該國將成爲巴爾幹半島的津巴布韋的末世警告，演變到可能會制訂出協議基本框架的新希望。

The question now is whether that apparent change of heart reflected a new political determination to cut a deal that keeps Greece in the eurozone.

現在的問題在於，這種明顯的回心轉意是否反映出希臘下了新的政治決心，準備達成協議，把自己留在歐元區。

The representatives of Greece’s main creditors — the eurozone nations, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund — are scheduled to review the new proposal in Brussels on Friday. Approval will also require an assessment by the 19 finance ministers of eurozone countries. That meeting, of the so-called Eurogroup, has been scheduled for Saturday afternoon in Brussels.

希臘主要債權人——歐元區國家、歐洲央行和國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)——的代表將於週五在布魯塞爾審查這份新提議。要想獲得批准，還需要歐元區19國家財長做出評估。他們組成的歐元集團(Eurogroup)的會議定於週六下午在布魯塞爾召開。

One analyst said he thought the offer would be well received by creditors.

一名分析人士表示，他認爲該提議會深受債權人歡迎。

“The package takes a very substantial step in the right direction and it should move us closer to a deal,” said Mujtaba Rahman, the Europe director for the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, shortly after reading one version of the Greek offer translated into English.

“這份救助計劃朝着正確的方向邁出了相當大的一步，應該會使我們更加接近達成協議，”政治風險諮詢公司歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)的歐洲議題負責人穆傑塔巴·拉赫曼(Mujtaba Rahman)在看到希臘提議的英文翻譯版後說。

“The question now is whether the Greeks are actually going to implement some of the measures over the course of the weekend by putting them before their Parliament as German officials seems to be demanding,” he added.

“現在的問題在於，希臘是否真的會在週末期間採取行動，就像德國官員要求的那樣，將計劃提交給議會，” 他還表示。

Prospects for a deal improved through the day as a procession of European leaders came around to Mr. Tsipras’s conviction that pure austerity measures were insufficient in their own right and had to be accompanied by a commitment to reduce the burden of Greece’s stupendous debt.

當天，達成協議的可能性有所增加。一批歐洲領導人轉而接受齊普拉斯深信不疑的看法，即只靠緊縮措施是不夠的，還要伴之以減輕希臘沉重的債務負擔的承諾。

Greece received vital political support and technical assistance from France, help that highlighted the contrasting approaches being taken by the two leading powers in the European Union. Germany has played the bad cop, standing firm against concessions to Greece and, in Mr. Schäuble’s case, openly doubting that the country really belonged in the eurozone. France has thrown itself into the task of finding a deal.

法國爲希臘提供了至關重要的政治支持及技術援助。這種幫助突顯了歐盟兩個大國的不同態度。德國唱白臉，堅決反對向希臘妥協，朔伊布勒本人還公開質疑希臘是否真的屬於歐元區。法國則在積極尋找解決方案，希望達成協議。

The French assistance appeared to be an effort to make sure the Greek proposal, submitted just before a midnight deadline, would be as thorough and salable as possible to Greece’s creditors and would smooth the way for a compromise on a new bailout package to keep Greece afloat financially and inside the euro.

法國伸出援手似乎是爲了確保希臘這份恰在午夜的最後期限前提交的方案對其債權人來說盡可能地周密和可行，爲就新救助計劃做出妥協鋪平道路。該計劃旨在確保希臘金融市場正常運轉，並留在歐元區。

“There is a group of people who have been sent to help the Greeks, to try to transform words into action,” said a French government official with knowledge of the effort.

一名知情的法國政府官員表示，“我們派了一組人前去幫助希臘人，希望把語言變成行動。”

France has been the most steadfast major nation in Europe supporting Greece ever since Mr. Tsipras was ushered in to power in January on a mandate to repudiate austerity. Paris has been particularly outspoken in recent days about the need for a compromise that would help Greece and hold the eurozone together.

自齊普拉斯於今年1月憑藉民衆對緊縮政策的拒絕而上臺以來，法國一直是支持希臘的最堅定的歐洲大國。近日來，巴黎尤其明確地表示需要做出妥協，在幫助希臘的同時，使歐元區團結在一起。

By contrast, Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, has shown little inclination to compromise on demands that Greece take actions to show that it can be fiscally responsible before even considering new bailout aid.

相比之下，德國總理安格拉·默克爾(Angela Merkel)沒有表現出多少做出妥協的意願。德國要求，希臘必須首先採取行動表明該國能夠在財政上負責，否則就連考慮新救助計劃都不可能。

Neither French nor German officials would discuss France’s involvement in the Greek proposal in any depth. But the development raised questions about whether France and Germany have split heading into the final negotiations or whether there is a back-room understanding between Paris and Berlin.

法國與德國官員均不願探討法國參與希臘提議制訂過程的問題，無論這種介入有多深。但目前的進展引發了疑問：是法國和德國在走向最終談判的路上已分道揚鑣，還是巴黎和柏林在私底下達成了諒解？

Mr. Tsipras and his team spent the day in meetings as they put together a proposal and sought to ensure domestic political support for it.

齊普拉斯及其團隊在會議中度過了一天。他們制訂出這份提議，併力圖確保得到國內的政治支持。

Ms. Merkel, speaking later in Sarajevo, reiterated her opposition to actually writing off some of Greece’s debt, though she was less definitive about steps like reducing interest rates or extending the payment period as ways of helping Greece manage its indebtedness.

默克爾後來在薩拉熱窩講話時重申了反對直接減計希臘債務的立場，不過她在降低利率或延長支付期限等幫助希臘處理債務的措施上有所鬆動。

Germany has taken an increasingly hard line toward Greece since the nation voted no on Sunday to an earlier bailout program in a referendum that sent political shivers across Europe. In the wake of the chaos sparked by the vote, Ms. Merkel flew Monday to Paris to join President François Hollande of France to discuss what to do next with Greece.

希臘上週日舉行公投否決了之前的救助計劃，在歐洲各國引發政治震動。自此以後，德國對希臘的態度愈發強硬。在公投引發混亂之後，默克爾於週一飛往巴黎，與法國總統弗朗索瓦·奧朗德(François Hollande)商討應對希臘問題的下一步打算。