關於希臘債務危機你必須要了解的六個問題

Updated: June 28

更新時間：6月28日

Greece, the weak link in the eurozone, is inching closer to defaulting on its debt. The country has been in a long standoff with its European creditors on the terms of a multibillion-dollar bailout. If the country goes bankrupt or decides to leave the 19-nation eurozone, the situation could create instability in the region and reverberate around the globe.

希臘是歐元區的薄弱環節，它正在慢慢走向債務違約的深淵。在涉及千億美元的救助條款上，該國與其歐洲債權人處於長期對峙狀態。如果希臘破產，或是決定離開19個國家組成的歐元區，可能會破壞該地區的穩定，並且波及全球。

what is the latest?

最新進展如何？

The European Central Bank said on Sunday that it would not expand the emergency loan program that has been propping up Greek banks in recent weeks. But at the same time, the bank did not cut off support entirely, giving the Greek government some extra flexibility in the coming days.

歐洲央行(European Central Bank)週日表示，它不會擴大最近幾周來爲希臘銀行業提供支持的緊急貸款計劃。但與此同時，歐洲央行並未完全切斷援手，所以會在未來數日裏爲希臘政府提供一些額外的靈活性。

Meanwhile in Greece, the Parliament approved a request from Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras for a public referendum on Greece’s debt negotiations, to be held next Sunday. Mr. Tsipras said he was calling the referendum because Greece’s creditors — the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the eurozone countries — had refused to negotiate in good faith and present a fair compromise.

另一方面，希臘議會批准了總理亞歷克西斯·齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)的請求，同意下週日就本國的債務談判舉行全民公投。齊普拉斯表示，他之所以訴諸公投，是因爲希臘的債權人——國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)、歐洲央行和歐元區其他國家——拒絕進行真誠的談判，不願做出適當的妥協。

The approval came after eurozone finance ministers rejected Greece’s request to extend its existing bailout program past a deadline this Tuesday.

希臘要求將現有的救助計劃延長到本週二的限期之後，但遭到了歐元區各國財長的拒絕。隨後，希臘議會批准進行全民公投。

How did Greece get to this point?

希臘如何淪落到如今的境地？

Greece became the epicenter of Europe’s debt crisis after Wall Street imploded in 2008. With global financial markets still reeling, Greece announced in October 2009 that it had been understating its deficit figures for years, raising alarms about the soundness of Greek finances.

2008年華爾街崩盤之後，希臘成爲了歐州債務危機的震中。2009年10月，在全球金融市場尚未站穩之際，希臘宣佈它多年來一直低報了赤字數據，引發了人們對希臘財政狀況的警惕。

Suddenly, Greece was shut out from borrowing in the financial markets. By the spring of 2010, it was veering toward bankruptcy, which threatened to set off a new financial crisis.

突然之間，希臘被金融市場拒之門外，無法借到資金。到2010年春，該國日益走向破產，新的金融危機眼看可能會就此引爆。

To avert calamity, the so-called troika — the I.M.F., the European Central Bank and the European Commission — issued the first of two international bailouts for Greece, which would eventually total more than 240 billion euros, or about $264 billion at today’s exchange rates.

爲了避免這樣的災難，國際貨幣基金組織、歐洲央行和歐盟委員會這“三駕馬車”爲希臘提供了兩輪國際救助計劃中的第一輪。救助總額最後達到了2400億歐元，按目前匯率計算相當於1.66萬億元人民幣。

The bailouts came with conditions. Lenders imposed harsh austerity terms, requiring deep budget cuts and steep tax increases. They also required Greece to overhaul its economy by streamlining the government, ending tax evasion and making Greece an easier place to do business.

救助附帶有條件。出借方強制要求希臘實施嚴苛的緊縮政策，而這需要大幅削減預算並增加稅收。他們還要求希臘全面改革經濟體制，包括精簡政府、打擊逃稅現象，以及改善商業環境。

If Greece has received billions in bailouts, why is there still a crisis?

既然希臘已經獲得了數千億歐元的援助，爲什麼危機仍然在持續？

The money was supposed to buy Greece time to stabilize its finances and quell market fears that the euro union itself could break up. While it has helped, Greece’s economic problems haven’t gone away. The economy has shrunk by a quarter in five years, and unemployment is above 25 percent.

這筆錢本來是要給希臘爭取一些時間，以穩定其財政狀況，同時平息市場對歐元區本身可能分崩離析的擔憂情緒。雖然它的確有所幫助，但希臘的經濟問題並沒有得到解決。該國經濟在五年內縮水了四分之一，目前的失業率超過25%。

The bailout money mainly goes toward paying off Greece’s international loans, rather than making its way into the economy. And the government still has a staggering debt load that it cannot begin to pay down unless a recovery takes hold.

救助資金主要用來還清希臘的國際借款，而不是注入了該國的經濟。希臘政府至今仍揹負着高得驚人的債務負擔。除非經濟真正有了起色，否則它無法開始償還。

Many economists, and many Greeks, blame the austerity measures for much of the country’s continuing problems. The leftist Syriza party rode to power this year promising to renegotiate the bailout; Mr. Tsipras said that austerity had created a “humanitarian crisis” in Greece.

很多經濟學家以及不少希臘人批評緊縮政策，認爲它是導致該國問題一直無法緩解的一大原因。今年成爲執政黨的左翼激進聯盟(Syriza)發誓要重新談判救助協議；齊普拉斯本人則宣稱，緊縮政策在希臘導致了“人道主義危機”。

But the country’s exasperated creditors, especially Germany, blame Athens for failing to conduct the economic overhauls required under its bailout. They don’t want to change the rules for Greece.

然而，憤怒的債權方，尤其是德國，指責雅典未能按照救助協議的要求開展經濟改革。他們不願爲希臘破例。

As the debate rages, the only thing everyone agrees on is that Greece is yet again running out of money — and fast.

這場辯論進行得如火如荼，各方唯一達成共識的一點是：希臘正在再次耗盡資金，而且速度驚人。

Why do Greece and Europe disagree?

希臘和歐盟的分歧何在？

With Greece nearly bankrupt, the government struck a deal with European officials on Feb. 20 to extend the bailout program for at least four months and give Athens 7 billion in funds, if Mr. Tsipras made structural changes. But creditors say the plans Greece has submitted fall short, and they accuse Mr. Tsipras of trying to roll back the austerity measures unilaterally.

隨着希臘瀕臨破產邊緣，政府於今年2月20日與歐洲官員達成協議：如果齊普拉斯做出結構性變革，他們會將救助計劃延長至少四個月，併爲雅典提供70億歐元的資金。不過，債權人如今表示希臘提交的方案並沒有達到標準，並且指責齊普拉斯試圖單方面收回緊縮政策。

Greece needs a deal to keep paying its creditors and to finance government operations. Athens seems to be betting that its creditors will want to reach a compromise to avoid the huge unknowns that could arise if Greece defaults or possibly leaves the euro.

希臘需要達成一項協議來繼續償還欠債權人的款項，併爲政府運行提供資金。雅典似乎押下賭注，認爲債權人會希望達成妥協，以避免可怕的未知數。如果希臘違約，或者可能離開歐元區，就會浮現這種不確定性。

If things are so bad, shouldn’t Greece just leave the eurozone?

如果情況已經如此糟糕，何不讓希臘就此離開歐元區？

At the height of the debt crisis a few years ago, many experts worried that Greece’s problems would spill over into the rest of the world. If Greece defaulted on its debt and exited the eurozone, it could create global financial shocks bigger than the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

幾年前希臘債務危機達到頂峯時，很多專家擔心該國的問題會波及世界其他地方。如果希臘出現債務違約並退出歐元區，會給國際金融領域帶來比雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破產更大的衝擊。

Some people argue that if Greece were to leave the currency union now, it wouldn’t be such a catastrophe. Europe has put up safeguards to limit the financial contagion, in an effort to keep the problems from spreading to other countries. Greece, just a tiny part of the eurozone economy, could regain financial autonomy with its own economy, these people contend — and the eurozone would actually be better off without a country that seems to constantly need its neighbors’ support.

一些人提出，假如希臘現在離開這個貨幣聯盟，將不會造成多大的災難。歐洲已經築起屏障來限制金融危機的蔓延，希望防止問題擴展至其他國家。這些人認爲，希臘只是歐元區經濟的一小部分，離開後可以恢復對本國經濟的財政自主權，而且少了這個似乎總是需要鄰國幫助的成員，歐元區實際上會過得更好。

Others say that’s too simplistic a view. Despite the frustration of endless negotiations, European political leaders see a united Europe as an imperative. At the same time, they still haven’t fixed some of the biggest shortcomings of the eurozone’s structure by creating a more federal-style system of transferring money as needed among members — the way the United States does among its various states. They also worry that if Greece were to default and leave the eurozone, it could ignite turmoil in the financial markets that might stall the budding recovery in Europe and impede the United States’ rebound.

其他一些人則表示，這是一個過於簡單的觀點。儘管對無盡的談判感到失望，歐盟的政治領導人認爲必須保持歐洲的統一。與此同時，他們尚未根據成員國的需要創立一個更接近聯邦制的轉賬系統——就像美國在各州之間建立的系統一樣——從而改進歐元區構架中最嚴重的一些不足之處。他們還擔心，如果希臘債務違約並退出歐元區，會導致金融市場劇烈震盪，或許會讓歐洲剛剛開始的復甦偃旗息鼓，並阻礙美國經濟的回升。

What happens next?

接下來還會發生什麼？

That’s the billion-euro question.

這是事關天文數字的問題。

Mr. Tsipras has said he doesn’t want to take Greece out of the euro currency union. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, Europe’s paymaster, says the eurozone must stay together — but not at any cost.

齊普拉斯一直表示，他不想讓希臘退出歐元區。歐洲的金主德國總理安格拉·默克爾(Angela Merkel)則稱，歐元區必須保持統一，但不應不惜一切代價。

Right now, Greece must work out a deal to get some of the 7 billion to meet looming debt payments. It also has billions more in additional payments coming due later this year to the I.M.F. and the European Central Bank. As a result, Greece might need to try securing yet another multibillion-euro bailout package — its third since 2010.

眼下，希臘必須達成一項協議，得到70億歐元中的至少部分資金，以完成迫在眉睫的債務支付。希臘還要償付在今年晚些時候到期的欠國際貨幣基金組織和歐洲央行的幾十億歐元的債務。因此，希臘可能需要努力獲得又一輪數字巨大的救援計劃——自2010年以來的第三輪。

Next week’s referendum could test whether Greek citizens want to stay in the eurozone. New elections could also be held if Greece’s financial situation worsens. Or Greece could test the willingness of Russia or China to help should talks with Europe falter.

下週舉行的全民公投可以檢驗希臘民衆是否想要留在歐元區。倘若希臘的財政狀況進一步惡化，該國也可能會舉行新的選舉。或者， 如果與歐洲的談判破裂，希臘可以試探俄羅斯或中國是否願意提供幫助。

The heavy betting is that Greece and Europe will find a way to muddle through the mess yet again — even if many people might be quietly drawing up emergency plans.

最多人押寶的可能性是，希臘和歐洲會找到再次度過困境的辦法——即便很多人可能在默默制訂應急計劃。