英國大選結束 最後民調仍顯僵局

David Cameron and Ed Miliband go into polling day with a final series of opinion polls putting Conservatives and Labour still neck and neck: five weeks of campaigning has failed to break the deadlock.

戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)和埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)迎來投票日之際，最後的一系列民意調查顯示保守黨(Conservatives)和工黨(Labour)仍然並駕齊驅：5周的競選活動未能打破僵局。

According to the political betting market, Mr Cameron is reckoned to be on course to win roughly 290 seats to Mr Miliband’s 265, a result that might just allow the prime minister to cling on to power with Liberal Democrat support.

政治賭博市場的賠率顯示，卡梅倫被認爲將贏得大約290個席位，而米利班德贏得265個席位，這一結果或許剛好讓現任首相在自由民主黨(Liberal Democrat)的支持下繼續掌權。

But the Labour leader has more potential allies in a hung parliament, hence the equal odds some bookmakers offer on Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband becoming Britain’s next prime minister.

但是，工黨領袖在“無多數議會”（hung parliament，即沒有一個政黨獲得議會多數席位——譯者注）中擁有更多潛在盟友，因此一些博彩公司對卡梅倫或米利班德成爲英國下一屆首相提供相同賠率。

However last-minute shifts of voters in closely contested seats — or widespread tactical voting, as urged by some newspapers — could change everything in an election of fine margins.

然而，競爭激烈的選區選民在最後時刻的轉變——或者某些報紙所鼓勵的廣泛戰術性投票——可能在一場得票率接近的選舉中改變一切。

Polling organisations have spent the final hours of the campaign trying to detect such shifts, such as the “shy Tory” phenomenon that saw an 11th-hour increase in support for John Major in the tight 1992 election.

民調機構在競選的最後幾小時試着去發現這些改變，比如1992年激烈的大選中約翰•梅傑(John Major)的支持率在最後一刻增加的“羞澀的保守黨人”現象。

Some pollsters have concluded that if there is a late shift, it may only happen at the moment voters enter the polling station.

一些民調專家總結稱，如果此次大選出現最後一刻的轉向，也可能只發生在選民步入投票站的那一刻。

YouGov on Wednesday put both Labour and Tories on 34 points; ICM had them tied on 35 points; TNS gave the Tories a one-point lead; Opinium’s final survey also gave the Conservatives a one-point advantage.

週三，YouGov民調顯示工黨和保守黨支持率均爲34%； ICM民調顯示兩黨支持率均爲35%； TNS顯示保守黨領先1個百分點； Opinium最後一次調查也顯示保守黨領先1個百分點。

The final polls suggest Ukip is the third biggest party nationally in terms of voter support, typically polling 11-12 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats around 9.

最後幾次民調似乎表明，在選民支持方面，英國獨立黨(Ukip)是全國第三大政黨，支持率通常爲11%至12%，而自由民主黨支持率在9%左右。