英國大選 最後一刻的博弈

David Cameron, Britain’s prime minister, is putting in place plans to hold on to power and deliver his promised referendum on EU membership even if he fails to win an outright majority in a knife-edge general election on Thursday.

英國首相戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)正制定計劃以謀求繼續掌權，並打算即使不能在大選中贏得壓倒性多數席位，也要按照此前承諾，就英國是否脫離歐盟(EU)舉行公投。英國大選將於週四舉行，結果仍十分難以預測。

But opposition Labour Party leader Ed Miliband is making similar plans to form a minority government and could become prime minister even if he finishes second, thanks to the expected support of the separatist Scottish National party, which is forecast to win by a landslide north of the border.

不過，反對黨工黨(Labour)的領袖埃德•米利班德(Ed Miliband)也在制定類似計劃，尋求組建一個少數黨政府。他的選票即使落後於卡梅倫，仍有可能成爲英國首相，因爲奉行分離主義的蘇格蘭國家黨(Scottish National Party)預計會支持米利班德，而該黨預計會在英國北部取得壓倒性勝利。

Opinion polls put the Conservatives and Labour neck-and-neck on about 34 points each, promising one of the most uncertain outcomes for decades in a British election, which until 2010 usually delivered a clear parliamentary majority to one of the two main parties.

民調顯示，保守黨(Conservatives)和工黨(Labour)的支持率旗鼓相當，均爲34%左右。這一局面令此次大選很可能成爲數十年來英國大選中結果最難確定的一次。在2010年以前，英國兩大主要政黨中的一家通常會在大選中贏得明確的議會多數席位。

The Tories insist they detect some last-minute momentum in their favour. Allies of the Conservative leader say Mr Cameron would “move quickly” to begin talks with his current coalition partners, the pro-European Liberal Democrats, if he emerges with the most seats on May 7.

保守黨人士堅稱，大選前最後一刻的選情中有一些利於他們的跡象。卡梅倫的盟友表示，如果卡梅倫5月7日贏得最多席位，他會“儘快採取行動”，與現有聯盟夥伴、親歐洲的自由民主黨人(Libreal Democrats)展開磋商。

The prime minister made clear yesterday that his plan to hold an “in-out” referendum by 2017 on Britain’s EU membership was a red line, saying: “I would not lead a government that doesn’t have that referendum in law and carried out.”

週日，卡梅倫明確表示，在2017年以前就英國是否脫離歐盟開展公投，是他的最後底線。他說：“我不會領導一個法律上不認可也不實施這一公投的政府。”

Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg signalled he could give Mr Cameron his referendum in exchange for his own party’s red lines, including more spending on schools, healthcare and a “fairer” deficit reduction plan.

自由民主黨領導人尼克•克雷格(Nick Clegg)則表示，他可能會支持卡梅倫的公投計劃，以換取推行自己所在黨派的政治主張底線——包括加大對學校、醫療保健的開支，以及提高減赤方案“公平程度”。

The FT’s election calculator gives Mr Cameron 274 seats and Mr Miliband 270 — both well short of the 325 target for a House of Commons majority — leaving both dependent on the backing of other parties.

按照英國《金融時報》大選計算器的估計，卡梅倫預計會獲得274個席位，米利班德預計會獲得270個席位，都將大大低於獲得議會下院多數席位所需的325個席位。這一局面意味着雙方都需要得到其他政黨的支持。

If Mr Cameron emerges as the leader of the biggest party he is expected to begin talks with the Lib Dems and also the Democratic Ulster Unionist party, which is demanding more public spending in Northern Ireland.

如果卡梅倫成爲議會最大政黨的領導人，預計他會啓動與自由民主黨及民主統一黨(DUP)的磋商。民主統一黨的主張是要求加大對北愛爾蘭的公共開支。

Some Conservatives expect him to make his move on Friday, the day after polling day, to establish momentum, but even Lib Dem and DUP support may not take him over the finishing line.

部分保守黨人預計，卡梅倫會在投票日之後的週五開始行動造勢。然而，即使他得到自由民主黨和民主統一黨的支持，可能也無法確保取得最終勝利。

The SNP, which is opposed to austerity and wants to scrap Britain’s nuclear deterrent, has said it would help Mr Miliband into power in a hung parliament and “lock David Cameron out of Downing Street”.

蘇格蘭國家黨已經表示，如果出現“無多數議會”(hung parliament)局面，該黨會幫助米利班德掌權，“將戴維•卡梅倫鎖在唐寧街(Downing Street)之外”。蘇格蘭國家黨反對英國實施緊縮政策，並希望英國放棄核威懾。

It has built on the momentum of last year’s independence referendum — which it lost by 45 to 55 per cent — and polls suggest it could win most of the 59 Scottish seats at Westminster.

去年的蘇格蘭公投令蘇格蘭國家黨聲勢大振——儘管那次公投以45%對55%的結果沒有取得成功。民調顯示，該黨可能會贏得蘇格蘭在英國議會59個席位中的大多數。