白手起家 "印尼版奧巴馬"能否從貧民窟登上總統寶座

A decade ago, Joko Widodo’s life was an improbable, irrefutable success. Raised in a riverside shack in Solo, Indonesia, Widodo was the first in his family to go to college; he then founded the furniture export business that made him a millionaire.

十年前，佐科威收穫了聽起來不大可能、但無可辯駁的成功。佐科威在印尼梭羅市一個河邊貧民窟長大，是家裏的第一位大學生；他隨後創辦了一家傢俱出口企業，並由此成爲百萬富翁。

But back then, Widodo was just getting started. In 2005, he became mayor of Solo—the very city whose slums he had grown up in—and did so good a job busting corruption and cleaning things up, that in 2012, he unseated incumbent Fauzi Bowo to become governor of Jakarta, the sprawling megacity. Then this March, he became his party’s nominee to become the President of Indonesia (that same month, FORTUNE ranked him No. 37 on its 2014 list of 50 World’s Greatest Leaders.) Tomorrow — June 9 in Indonesia — it all comes to a head. If Jokowi prevails in the neck-and-neck race against his opponent, former military general Prabowo Subianto, he’ll be leading the fourth largest nation on Earth.

但當時，佐科威的輝煌人生路纔剛剛起步。2005年，他成爲梭羅市市長——沒錯，他就是在這座城市的貧民窟長大的——隨即發起了一場大獲成功的反貪風暴。2012年，憑藉着這些斐然政績，佐科威擊敗時任雅加達省長法烏茲，成爲這座不斷擴張的超大城市的新領袖。今年3月，他又被推舉爲所在政黨的印尼總統候選人【也是在這個月，《財富》雜誌(Fortune)發佈了2014年全球50位領導力榜樣名單，佐科威位居第37位】。印尼當地時間7月9日，印尼總統大選即將進入緊要關頭。如果佐科威能夠在這場難分伯仲的大選中戰勝對手、前軍事將領普拉博沃，他就將成爲世界第四大國的領導人。（最新消息：印尼總統大選已經結束，佐科威和普拉博沃團隊都宣佈自己勝出，選舉委員會預計將於兩週後正式公佈最終的選舉結果。）

“There are not many mayors who can make a leap to the presidency in the span of 24 months,” Jeffrey Winters, a political scientist at Northwestern University told FORTUNE via an email interview. “Jokowi winning the presidency having only recently been the mayor of Solo is like Dennis Kucinich winning the presidency from Cleveland. The difference is Jokowi actually has a shot at victory.”

“能夠在24個月內躍升爲總統的市長並不多見，”西北大學(Northwestern University)政治學家傑弗裏o溫特斯在接受《財富》電郵採訪時說。“沒多久之前還是梭羅市市長的佐科威贏得總統選舉，就好比克利夫蘭市長丹尼斯o庫欽奇贏得美國總統寶座一樣。區別在於，佐科威的確有望獲勝。”

With his rags-to-riches story and record for real change, Widodo, who campaigns in folksy red-and-blue checked shirts and is popularly known as “Jokowi,” has energized an Indonesian populace hungry for a break from the status quo. The politician has drawn comparisons to Obama (circa 2008), inspired a hit song “Two-Finger Salute,” won cred for his can-do competence and earned a slight (though perhaps not statistically significant) 3% edge in recent polls.

憑藉着白手起家的勵志故事和推動切實變革的傲人記錄，時常在競選活動中身穿紅藍相間格子襯衫的佐科威已經極大地鼓舞了渴望擺脫現狀的億萬印尼民衆。這位因樂觀進取、敢作敢爲而贏得廣泛讚譽的政治家讓許多人聯想起2008年左右的奧巴馬。最近在印尼廣爲傳唱的歌曲《雙指禮》(Two-Finger Salute)也是受他啓發創作而成。在近期的民調中，佐科威獲得了3%的優勢，但這點優勢或許並不具備統計學上的意義。

Yet, just months ago, a Jokowi victory appeared almost a sure thing—holding an almost 40% lead over Prabowo, a candidate not allowed in the U.S. for past human rights violations and who, as the former son-in-law of Suharto, the Indonesian dictator overthrown 16 years ago, is certainly among the nation’s entrenched powers.

然而，就在幾個月前，佐科威贏得大選似乎已成定局——他的支持率領先普拉博沃接近40個百分點。普拉博沃是16年前被推翻的印尼獨裁者蘇哈托的前女婿，無疑具有根深蒂固的影響力。不過，由於過去侵犯人權的行爲，他成了不受美國歡迎的人。

What happened?

究竟發生了什麼事？

“Jokowi’s campaign has been a fragmented mess,” says Winters. “For undecided Indonesians, the weak campaign reinforced doubts about whether Jokowi was really ready for prime time.”

“佐科威的競選活動顯得支離破碎，沒有章法可言，”溫特斯說。“這種軟弱的競選活動使得那些猶豫不決的印尼人更加懷疑佐科威是否真正做好了出任總統的準備。”

Among the issues: the candidate over-scheduled public appearances, lacked a consistent message, and has been a technical and not particularly inspiring orator.

問題在於：這位候選人過於頻繁地公開露面，缺乏一個始終如一的訊息，發表演講時雖然面面俱到，但激情不足。

Michael Buehler, a lecturer at University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) says Jokowi is not the only one at fault in his lackluster campaign. The politician has been undermined by his own party’s machinery and is the victim of various smear campaigns that have—not unlike claims made about Obama—insinuated that he is not who he says he is. (The attacks maintain that Jokowi is secretly a Christian…or a Communist…or Chinese…or originally from Singapore…or all of the above.) Buehler adds that Prabowo’s slick, focused campaign has been aided by the work of a former George W. Bush political operative—a first in Indonesian politics.

倫敦大學(University of London)東方及非洲研究學院(SOAS)講師邁克爾o比埃勒表示，佐科威的競選活動乏善可陳並不僅僅是他一個人的錯。這位政治家一直深受黨內機器運轉不良的拖累，成爲了各種抹黑活動的受害者——跟奧巴馬曾經受到的指摘非常相似，四面八方的誹謗聲音暗示，他其實並不是他自己所宣稱的那種人。（這些攻擊堅稱，佐科威其實要麼是一位隱祕的基督徒，要麼是共產主義分子，要麼是個中國人，要麼自新加坡，要麼上面這些全部都是。）比埃勒補充說，普拉博沃的競選活動則顯得格外巧妙，重點突出，這得益於一位曾經擔任小布什總統軍師的政治操盤手的大力協助——在印尼政治中，這種事還是破天荒頭一次。

In recent months, Prabowo has effectively, if “ironically,” positioned himself as an outsider and won support for his nationalistic and populist agendas. (The candidates’ platforms are not all that different, though Buehler says Jokowi has “better ideas.”)

近幾個月來，普拉博沃頗爲有效地把自己定位爲一位局外人，同時還因爲他的民族主義和民粹主義議程而贏得了支持，這多少有點諷刺意味。（兩位候選人的競選政綱其實並沒有多大不同，但比埃勒認爲佐科威擁有“更好的想法”。）

But, says Winters: “Prabowo has been preparing for the presidency for three decades and actively pursuing the office and building a party machine for over ten years. It is Jokowi’s candidacy that is surprising, not Prabowo’s.”

但是，溫特斯說：“爲了坐上總統寶座，普拉博沃已經準備了三十年。過去十幾年來，他一直在積極謀求這個最高職位，還打造了一臺運行順暢的政黨機器。佐科威成爲候選人的確出人意料，但普拉博沃獲得候選人資格則一點也不令人意外。”

Right now, both scholars say the election is too close to call—and in any case, is unlikely to bring about the profound change Indonesia needs. During the course of the campaign, Jokowi has drawn closer to some of the entrenched interests that he is, in theory, running against—showing that for now, perhaps, there are limits to just how high Indonesia’s self-made, corruption-busting leader from the slums can climb on his own.

兩位學者都認爲，這次大選目前難分伯仲，但無論結果如何，這場競選都不可能帶來印尼亟需的深刻變革。在競選過程中，佐科威跟既得利益的距離越來越近——按道理說，這些既得利益正是他此次競選活動的討伐目標。這種行爲顯示，目前看來，這位白手起家，來自貧民窟的反腐先鋒僅憑一己之力所能攀登的高度非常有限。