中國如今依然需要美國這個能源夥伴

Commentary on last month's Russian-Chinese energy deal to ship 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from East Siberia to China has focused on its benefits for China. Yet Beijing may come to regret the deal, especially when some superior options exist directly under its feet.

上個月中俄達成能源協議後，外界評論的焦點一直是該協議給中國帶來的好處。然而北京可能會對這項協議感到後悔，尤其是在又出現了一些更好的選擇方案的情況下。根據中俄達成的協議，俄羅斯每年從東西伯利亞向中國出口380億立方米天然氣。

Granted, northeast China needs gas imports, and other sources such as liquid natural gas would be expensive compared with piped gas from Siberia. And China's demand for natural gas is going to grow rapidly in the next couple decades--far faster than can be met with non-Russian sources such as Australia.

毫無疑問，中國東北部地區需要進口天然氣，並且液化天然氣等其他資源價格要高於來自西伯利亞的管道天然氣。未來20年中國的天然氣需求將迅猛增長，如果不從俄羅斯進口，只是依賴澳大利亞等其他國家，可能遠遠無法得到滿足。

Even so, the $400 billion Siberian pipeline that China is now obligated to help finance won't be usable for four years. And by 2020 it will meet no more than 10% of the country's needs.

即便如此，中國目前負責融資的規模4,000億美元的西伯利亞輸氣管道項目四年內也無法投入使用。到2020年該輸氣管道的供氣量也只佔中國需求的10%。

The real beneficiaries of the Shanghai deal are Vladimir Putin and his state-owned Gazprom. Gas flowing through the Siberian pipeline will also be available for sale to other Asian countries at a considerable discount to what they pay for liquid natural gas. The deal offers insurance if Europe cuts back on Russian gas imports in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis. Analysts at Wood MacKenzie liken the deal to finding 'a new Europe' for Gazprom.

其實，中俄兩國上海能源協議的真正受益方是普京(Vladimir Putin)及其國有企業俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司(Gazprom)。來自西伯利亞輸氣管道的天然氣也可以銷售給其他亞洲國家，價格將遠低於它們購買的液化天然氣。即使歐洲在烏克蘭危機後削減俄羅斯天然氣進口量，上述協議也爲俄羅斯提供了保障。Wood MacKenzie的分析師們把該交易比作是俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司找到了一個“新的歐洲市場”。

That should give the Chinese additional pause. The rest of the world is learning that relying on Russia for natural gas can be a very bad idea--almost as bad as depending on oil shipped through the Iran-dominated Straits of Hormuz, as China does now. Yet China's energy demands are inexorable. Already the world's largest energy consumer, it will see demand surge again in the next two decades, including for natural gas.

這將令中國更感躊躇。眼下世界其他國家都逐漸意識到，依靠俄羅斯的天然氣可能導致非常不利的結果，差不多像依靠通過伊朗控制的霍爾木茲海峽(Straits of Hormuz)運輸石油一樣糟糕――而中國目前正是如此。然而中國的能源需求勢不可擋。中國已經成爲全球最大的能源消費國，而且未來20年中國對天然氣等能源的需求將再度猛增。

A better idea is for China to crack open shale oil and gas reserves at home, which are enormous. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that Chinese gas reserves could be almost one and a half times those of the United States. Yet to date China has dug fewer than 200 shale-gas wells, compared to 40,000 dug in the U.S.

對中國來說，更好的方案是開發本國巨大的頁岩油氣儲量。據美國能源情報署( Energy Information Administration，簡稱：EIA)估計，中國天然氣儲量幾乎是美國的1.5倍。但迄今爲止，中國頁岩氣井數量不足200口，而美國有4萬口。

Why hasn't China seen the kind of shale revolution that has turned the U.S. into the world's biggest natural gas producer, and will make it the biggest oil producer by 2020?

爲何中國沒有看到使美國成爲全球最大天然氣生產國的頁岩革命？而且到2020年，美國還將成爲全球最大石油生產國。

Part of the problem is geology. China's shale is heavily mixed with clay, unlike the brittle bedrock that surrounds American shale. China's is also buried deeper, and some deposits may contain lethal contaminates like hydrogen sulfide.

其中一個原因是地質問題。中國頁岩摻雜大量粘土，而美國頁岩則由比較脆的基岩包裹。中國頁岩埋藏較深，有些礦藏還可能含有致命污染物，如硫化氫。

There's also geography. China's biggest shale gas fields are in Sichuan province, which is densely populated, unlike North Dakota or West Texas. And Sichuan can't spare the tremendous amount of water that American-style fracking demands.

還有地理方面的問題。中國最大頁岩氣田位於人口稠密的四川省，而不是像美國，位於人口較少的北達科他或西德克薩斯。四川也沒有那麼多水供美式壓裂法之用。

But the biggest problem is the Chinese government. The country's major energy companies are state-owned and naturally get most contracts whether they have the expertise or not. There is little opportunity for homegrown startups to introduce innovation that would address the technical obstacles. And given China's legal system, there are no guarantees that an individual investor in such projects would get his money back.

但最大的問題還在於中國政府。中國大型能源企業都是國有企業，無論是否具備相應能力都自然能獲得最多的項目合同。民間初創企業沒有什麼機會爲解決技術難題進行創新。另外，從中國的法律制度來看，個人投資者對這種項目的投資不能保證能收回成本。

So even though China has set a 2015 target for shale gas extraction of 6.5 billion cubic meters--a tiny fraction of what the U.S. extracts every year--it seems unlikely they will come close to meeting it. At one gas site auction in late 2012, not one of the 16 companies bidding had ever drilled a gas well.

因此，雖然中國製定了到2015年頁岩氣產量達到每年65億立方米的目標（僅相當於美國每年頁岩氣產量的很小一部分），但這一目標不太可能得以實現。在2012年底招標的一個頁岩氣區塊，參與競標的16家企業中沒有一傢俱備鑽探頁岩氣井的經驗。

There is one place where China could find the expertise to open its gas potential: the United States. China has already turned to giants such as Shell for help--and joint ventured with companies such as FTS International with experience in fracking--but only U.S. companies are truly poised to solve China's issues.

如果說中國可以從一個國家找到開採頁岩氣儲備所需的技術，這個國家就是美國。中國已求助於殼牌(Shell)等巨頭，並與具有壓裂經驗的FTS International等企業組建了合資公司，但只有美國企業真正做好了幫助中國解決問題的準備。

Houston-based eCorp, for example, has developed a technology for fracking shale wells with liquid propane instead of water mixed with chemicals. Unlike conventional fracking, the process produces no waste because the propane goes into the pipeline along with the gas.

例如，總部位於休斯頓的eCorp已開發了一項用液態丙烷取代混有化學劑的水來壓裂頁岩井的技術。和常規的壓裂不同，這一工序不會產生廢棄物，因爲丙烷會隨着頁岩氣一起進入管道。

But for China to tap sufficient foreign expertise would require some rethinking--namely to begin viewing foreign entrepreneurs not as profiteers but as partners. Such a change might also encourage Beijing to see the U.S. less as a geopolitical and economic rival, and more as a potential partner in solving its biggest energy needs.

但中國對大量採用國外技術還存有一些顧慮，因爲這意味着不能再將國外企業視爲牟取暴利者，而是當做合作伙伴。這種轉變或許還會促使北京更多地將美國視爲解決本國巨大能源需求的潛在合作伙伴，而非地緣政治和經濟競爭對手。

China's long-term economic and energy security are at stake. Betting on help from the U.S. seems far wiser than relying on a Siberian pipeline with Vladimir Putin's hand on the spigot.

中國的長期經濟和能源安全危如累卵，求助美國似乎比依賴由普京掌控龍頭的西伯利亞輸氣管道似乎要靠譜得多。