國際能源署報告 走出能源困境非洲需加大改革力度

Sub-Saharan Africa’s vast energy resources could be a catalyst for strong growth in the coming decades, but only if countries push through reforms and upgrade their infrastructures.

對於撒哈拉以南非洲地區來說，未來數十年裏，豐富的能源資源有望成爲其強勁增長的催化劑，但是前提是這些國家必須推進改革並升級基礎設施。

According to a report released Monday by the International Energy Agency, countries in the region must enact reforms that will attract investors and spend the hundred of billions needed to upgrade aging and poorly functioning infrastructures.

國際能源署（International Energy Agency）本週發佈的一份報告顯示，撒哈拉以南非洲地區的國家必須實施改革來吸引投資者，並投入數千億美元對陳舊落後的基礎設施進行升級改造。

The African Energy Outlook found that 30% of global oil and gas discoveries made over the past five years were from sub-Saharan Africa, which includes countries south of the Sahara desert. But at the same time only 290 million out of 915 million people have access to electricity. That figure is only rising.

《非洲能源展望》（African Energy Outlook）報告發現，在過去五年裏，全球探明的石油和天然氣有30%來自撒哈拉以南非洲地區——該地區包括撒哈拉沙漠以南的若干國家。但與此同時，在當地9.15億人口當中，僅有2.9億人可以使用電力。這個人口基數只會不斷增長。

Worse, four out of five people in the region depend on firewood and charcoal mainly for cooking due to the lack of electricity. The projection is that figure will rise 40 percent by 2040, putting tropical forests at risk and further contributing to indoor pollution that is already the second biggest cause of premature death behind AIDS in the region.

更糟糕的是，由於電力供應不足，該地區有五分之四的人口主要依靠柴禾和木炭做飯。預計到2040年，數值還將增長40%，熱帶雨林面臨砍伐過度的險境，並且將進一步加重室內污染問題——室內污染已成爲致使該地區人口早夭的第二大原因，僅次於艾滋病（AIDS）。

“When I look at the continent, sub-Saharan Africa is very rich in energy resources and very poor in energy supply and production,” IEA Chief Economist FatihBirol told Fortune.

“據我瞭解，撒哈拉以南非洲地區的能源資源非常豐富，但能源供應和生產卻極度不足，”國際能源署首席經濟學家法蒂赫o比羅爾在接受《財富》（Fortune）雜誌的採訪時表示。

“There is huge potential both for oil and gas and, when it comes to renewables, huge potential for hydropower, wind and solar,” he said. “On the other hand, there is very little energy for the people in Africa.”

他介紹說：“這些地區蘊藏着巨大的石油和天然氣發展潛力，並且在可再生能源方面，比如水電、風能和太陽能，潛力也都非常可觀。而另一方面，非洲人民現有的可用能源卻極度匱乏。”

Africa has long been plagued by the resource curse, where abundant oil, gas and minerals in places like Equatorial Guinea or the Republic of Congo have made a select few rich, led to widespread corruption and left the majority of citizens poor. The energy resources have also sparked conflict in countries such as Sudan and Nigeria, and have contributed to years of coups and political unrest.

長期以來，非洲一直處於能源困境。像赤道幾內亞或剛果共和國等石油、天然氣和礦產資源豐富的國家，有極少的一部分人富了起來，但這些國家腐敗氾濫，多數市民仍處於貧困之中。此外，能源資源是蘇丹和尼日尼亞等國家地緣衝突的導火索，同時也是該地區長年發生政變和政治動盪的原因之一。

That trend is set to continue, the IEA report said, unless countries tackle the range of problems that hinder the energy sector, from widespread oil theft (worth $5 billion a year in Nigeria) to electricity tariffs across the region, which are among the highest in the world. Corruption, too, remains a “major barrier” to investment in some countries.

國際能源署的報告中顯示，除非各國採取措施應對能源領域的一系列問題，比如解決盛行的石油偷盜（每年爲尼日利亞造成損失達50億美元）和降低電價（這裏是全球電價最高的地區之一），否則情況還會繼續惡化。另外，腐敗仍是在一些國家投資的“主要障礙”。

“There are two major issues here — the lack of investment and the second one is the governance issue,” Birol said of the need for about $140 million a year across the region for the energy sector.

“這裏存在兩個主要的掣肘——投資匱乏以及政府管理問題，”比羅爾表示，該地區能源業每年需要大約1.4億美元的投資。

“There are investments coming into the region but our study shows that today $2 out of $3 in Africa is for export-related projects not for the Africans,” he said. “We don’t see the investments can come if the governance issue is not fixed.”

“有一些投資進入該地區，但是我們的研究顯示，目前非洲有三分之二的投資都是出口相關項目，而不是服務於非洲人民，”他評價說，“在我們看來，如果政府管理問題得不到解決，就不可能吸引投資。”

Meike van Ginneken, a World Bank expert on energy for west and central Africa, said she saw a lot of potential for hydropower, geothermal and natural gas across the region but agreed “investment needed to be increased tremendously” especially from the private sector and the building of power delivery systems.

世界銀行（World Bank）中西非能源專家梅克o範o辛內肯認爲，該地區的水電、地熱和天然氣開發潛力巨大，但是她同時承認“這需要增加大量的投資”，尤其是來自於私營部門的投資，還需要加強電力輸送系統的建設。

“The question is how do you translate these large resources into increased access?” Van Ginneken said. “What you need for that is a lot of infrastructure, functioning utilities and a lot of money. While there is a lot investment in energy in Africa in the past five years, there has a period of two decades where there was very little investment. So, Africa is catching up.”

“問題是，如何將這些巨量的資源轉變爲更多的電力供應？”範o辛內肯說，“這就需要大量的基礎設施、高效的公用事業部門以及大量的投資。過去二十年來對非洲的投資非常少，但最近五年來能源投資的規模較大。所以，非洲正在迎頭趕上。”

To ensure that the energy resources improve living standards and contribute to stronger economic growth by 2040, the report calls for investment of an additional $450 billion in the power sector. It also calls for regional cooperation that could lead to large-scale generation and transmission projects as well as the adoption of “robust and transparent” processes that would result in “more effective use” of oil and gas revenues.

該報告指出，爲了確保到2040年非洲的能源資源有效改善該地區的生活水平，並且促進經濟增長，需要對能源部門增加4,500億美元的投資。此外，該報告還呼籲，進行區域合作來促成大規模的發電及輸電項目，以及採取“嚴格透明”的管理流程來“更爲有效地利用”油氣收入。

As part of its $11 billion in energy investments in Africa, van Ginneken said the World Bank has supported regional cooperation including the $261 million in guarantees this year for the Banda Gas-to-Power Project which will produce and convert natural gas from offshore gas fields in Mauritania into 300 megawatts of new electricity for the country and for export to Mali and Senegal.

範o辛內肯指出，作爲110億美元能源投資的一部分，世界銀行對區域合作的支持包括今年爲班達天然氣發電項目（Banda Gas-to-Power Project）提供的2.61億美元擔保，該項目利用毛里塔尼亞近海天然氣田的天然氣，可爲該國新增300兆瓦電力，並可出口到馬裏和塞內加爾。

They are also investing in regional transmission grids and setting up rural electrification projects including min-grids and off-grid solar power.

這些項目還包括對區域電網及農村電氣化改造的投資，如微型電網和離網太陽能發電。

“Regional cooperation and regional power grids will play an important role in bringing down cost which will make it more attractive for the private sector and more affordable for households,” van Ginneken said.

範o辛內肯進一步介紹說：“區域合作和搭建區域電網在降低成本方面非常關鍵，對私營部門更具吸引力，家庭用戶也更容易負擔。”

If some of the changes are enacted, renewables could also take off with the IEA projecting they could represent almost half the growth in electricity generation by 2040. Hydro, for example, represents 20% of the region’s power supply currently but only 10% of its technical potential has been realized.

如果實施一些變革，可再生能源也可以迎來新的發展機遇。據國際能源署預計，到2040年，可再生能源將佔新增電力的一半左右。例如，水電目前佔電力供給的20%，但僅有10%的技術潛力得到了利用。

Alex Rugamba, director of the Energy, Environment and Climate Change Department at the African Development Bank, agreed that renewables offer a chance for the continent to pursue a greener path than the one chose by its more developed neighbors.

非洲開發銀行（African Development Bank）能源、環境及氣候變化部門（Energy, Environment and Climate Change Department）主任阿歷克斯o魯甘馬指出，他也承認，對可再生能源的利用，將使得非洲有望走上比其周邊的發達國家更爲環保的發展道路。

“Certainly, the potential is high and we are seeing very good take up of all sorts of geothermal, wind, solar and, of course, hydro. We are definitely committed,” Rugamba said, adding that the bank has doubled its financing to the sector to $4.3 million from 2007 to 2012.

魯甘馬說：“確實，（非洲的）各種能源，包括地熱、風能、太陽能，當然還有水電，潛力都非常大。我們肯定都會大力開發。”他還指出，2007年至2012年，非洲開發銀行對能源部門的融資增加了一倍，達到430萬美元。

Among the challenges, he said, were the high, upfront capital cost of solar and the lack of private sector investment into the geothermal sector. “The private sector is often reluctant about geothermal without proven reserves of steam,” Rugamba said. “There are some schemes underway to mitigate those risk so we get more private investment into geothermal.”

他表示，可再生能源發展所遇到的挑戰包括太陽能高昂的前期資本投入，以及私營部門對地熱行業投資的缺乏。“在蒸汽儲量沒有探明的情況下，私營部門通常不願意投資地熱資源。”魯甘馬介紹說，“目前有一些降低此類風險的計劃正在醞釀之中，以吸引更多私營投資進入地熱資源領域。”

Both van Ginneken and Birol said they were confident Africa will make the changes necessary in the energy sector, which the IEA projected could boost the economy 30% by 2040.

範o辛內肯和比羅爾均表示，他們有足夠的信心相信，非洲會在能源行業做出必要的改革，國際能源署預測，到2040年該行業可推動當地經濟增長30%。

Birol said he is already seeing several countries take the lead in reforming their energy sectors, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana and Rwanda. Angola, meanwhile, is poised to overtake Nigeria as the continents biggest energy producer while Tanzania and Mozambique are set to take advantage of significant natural gas discoveries.

比羅爾表示，他已經看到幾個國家率先對能源行業進行改革，其中包括尼日利亞、南非、加納和盧旺達。與此同時，安哥拉正蓄勢待發，有望取代尼日利亞成爲非洲大陸最大的能源生產國，而坦桑尼亞和莫桑比克也計劃充分利用其豐富的天然氣資源。

“I see a momentum being built in many African countries that are understanding the critical importance of energy and making some energy sector reforms,” he said. “I see hope there with good governance especially with better management. We could see the energy sector provide a strong trigger for economic growth on the continent.”

“我看到一些非洲國家開始認識到能源的重要性，並且積極進行能源改革，這種勢頭正在不斷增長，”他說，“從好的治理模式，特別是有所改善的管理方式中，我看到了希望。我們有理由期待，能源業將成爲帶動非洲大陸經濟增長的有力引擎。”

Van Ginneken agreed, saying she has seen significant changes since she has been covering the sector the past seven years.

範o辛內肯對此表示認同。她指出，在過去七年對能源行業的持續關注中，她已經看到了一些重要的變化。

“I certainly see Africa turning a corner,” she said. “The investment in the energy sector in the past few years has been much higher than the two decades before. This is translating into more access to resources, transparency is being improved and the potential of Africa with finds of gas and geothermal in the Rift Valley (in East Africa) is tremendous.”

“我的確看到非洲在轉變。”她肯定地說，“過去幾年能源業的投資比過去二十年高出很多。這意味着可利用的能源資源有所增加，透明度也在得到改善，在非洲大裂谷（Rift Valley，位於東非）發現的天然氣和地熱資源也昭示着未來的巨大潛力。”