印度能成功效仿中國的基建模式嗎?
【英文原文】
India's Infrastructure Push Must Steer Past Potholes
Upgrading infrastructure has fueled rapid economic growth in the world's most populous country, China. Hope is springing once again that the second-most-populous one, India, might follow the same path.
To avoid disenchantment, India will need to work extra hard to get support from investors at home and abroad, and to deliver on past promises.
China, with its sprawling networks of new highways, airports and budding high-speed rail connections, makes for a daunting comparison. India has weaker government finances and an unruly democratic government that lacks China's authoritarian discipline.
Clearing land for roads or power plants in China is a cinch; not so in India, where land rights are often contentious. Government-backed companies have led China's infrastructure build-out. India's push will depend heavily on the private sector. And India, with its history of murky and investor-unfriendly rules on infrastructure investment, has a record of disappointment.
But the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, empowered by a decisive victory for his Congress party in elections last year, is making infrastructure a priority, with roads a particular focus of attention.
Kamal Nath, a high-profile politician, has taken on responsibility for roads and highways in what is seen as a sign of the post's new importance. His goal is to build 20 kilometers of new highway a day, and he is seeking $41 billion in private-sector investment over the next three to four years to help fund the construction.
He knows the depth of the problem. At a conference co-hosted by The Wall Street Journal Asia in New Delhi last month, Mr. Nath declared that of India's 70,000 kilometers of highways, 16,000 'aren't worth driving on,' and noted that 40% of India's fruits and vegetables rot before reaching market because of delays from poor roads and rail lines.
One thing in India's favor is an active stock market for raising funds. Infrastructure companies have raised about $6.3 billion since the beginning of 2008 on the Bombay Stock Exchange, according to Dealogic. Much of that has been for power projects, though road companies have gone to market as well. The most recent, IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd., raised $138 million in an offering that began trading March 30.
Attracting support from institutional investors, including foreign pension funds and insurance companies, won't be so easy. Many are wary of directly funding so-called greenfield projects that have yet to break ground, for fear of getting caught up in the kinds of disputes that torpedoed past investments such as Enron Corp.'s ill-fated Dabhol power project. The $2.9 billion plant closed in June 2001 after the loss-plagued Maharashtra State Electricity Board stopped payments, saying the rates were too high. Subsequent attempts to rescue the project have failed.
Still, some foreign investors are showing interest in companies that have already taken on the greenfield risk. On Friday, GMR Energy Ltd., the energy unit of India's GMR Infrastructure Ltd., said Singapore state investment firm Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd. will invest $200 million to fund existing projects. Last month, a consortium of global investors led by Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners agreed to invest $425 million in Asian Genco Pte. Ltd., an Indian power company.
Mr. Nath has recently been to Hong Kong and Tokyo trying to drum up interest from other big investors. He is offering incentives that include a 10-year tax holiday and allowing foreign investors to take as much as 100% of projects. 'I do get the sense that foreign institutional investors are quite keen on coming to India overall and specifically for infrastructure,' says Pankaj Vaish, managing director and head of global markets for India at Nomura Holdings Inc. 'The key is the terms and conditions and valuations.'
New road concessions will come up for bidding soon -- as many as nine megaprojects in the next few months, Mr. Nath said recently. Terms such as those that set caps on tolls need to be attractive enough to bring quality builders on board, but tough enough to enforce quality control. Building roads isn't enough; building them to last and maintaining them is the key.
The other litmus test of India's infrastructure prospects could be how well power companies that raised billions of dollars through the stock market in the last few years execute their plans. Reliance Power Ltd., a utility controlled by billionaire Anil Ambani, started generating power at its first project in December after raising $3 billion in January 2008. A high valuation doomed that initial public offering, India's largest ever, to failure in the aftermarket; the stock today still trades at a fraction of its offering price.
Further evidence that the money Reliance Power and others have raised is contributing desperately needed power to India's electrical grid and earning profits in the process would encourage more investment. Maggie Lee, who lead manages the Invesco Asian infrastructure fund, says Invesco won't invest in a company without reported profits. But once it generates positive cash flow, the story can change.
'In India, historically, they overpromise and underdeliver,' Ms. Lee says. However, if infrastructure investment really starts to take off, she says, 'India, over the longer term, could be theoretically more exciting' than China. That is a hope India's government and the private companies leading its infrastructure drive should strive hard not to dash.
【中文譯文】
基建設施升級推動了全球人口最多的國家──中國的經濟迅速增長。而在全球人口第二大國印度，有意效仿中國經濟發展之路的願望再次顯現。
爲避免令人們失望，印度將需額外努力以獲得國內外投資者的支持，並兌現以往的承諾。
中國有四通八達的新建公路、航空及發展中的高速鐵路交通體系，這與印度形成鮮明對照。印度政府財力不足，而且有着一個難以控制的民主政府，缺乏中國政府的權威。
爲修路或建電廠清理出土地在中國很容易做到，但在印度卻不行。印度的土地權通常具有爭議。在中國，是政府支持的公司主導着基建建設。而印度則嚴重依靠私人企業。在印度，由於基建投資歷史晦暗及投資規則對投資者不利，基建建設素來令人失望。
但印度總理辛格（Manmohan Singh）領導的政府，在去年的選舉中因國大黨(Congress party)獲得絕對性勝利而上臺。辛格政府正將基建作爲優先考慮事宜，特別是把道路建設作爲重點關注。
印度知名政治家納特（Kamal Nath）已接手負責道路與公路建設，這也被視爲該職位新重要性的標誌。他的計劃是每天建成20公里新公路，並計劃在今後三至四年間籌集410億美元的私人投資以進行公路建設。
他對基建存在的問題有深入的瞭解。上月在新德里一個由《亞洲華爾街日報》參與舉辦的會議上，納特稱，印度現有七萬公里的公路，有1.6萬公里無法駕車行駛，並指出，印度40%的水果及蔬菜在到達市場前即已腐爛，原因即是道路及鐵路運輸情況不佳。
對印度有利的一個因素是其股市活躍便於籌集資金。根據Dealogic的數據，自2008年始，基建公司已從孟買證券交易所(Bombay Stock Exchange)募集到約63億美元的資金。多數資金用於電力項目，儘管也有公路公司上市。最近，IL&FS 交通網絡有限公司(IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd.)在3月30日開始交易的股票發行中籌資1.38億美元。
吸引外國退休基金及保險公司等機構投資者的支持不會那麼容易。許多機構都對直接投資尚未破工動工的所謂新建項目非常謹慎，擔心會捲入導致安然公司(Enron Corp.)投資的大博(Dabhol)電廠項目徹底失敗的類似爭議之中。這家價值29億美元的電廠於2001年6月關閉，因遭受虧損困擾的印度馬邦電力局（Maharashtra State Electricity Board）聲稱價格過高並停止支付。此後一系列試圖挽救該項目的努力均以失敗告終。
但仍有外國投資者對冒險投資新建項目的公司感興趣。上週五，印度基建公司GMR Infrastructure Ltd.下屬的能源公司GMR Energy Ltd稱，新加坡國有投資公司淡馬錫控股(Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd.)將投資兩億美元支持其現有項目。上個月，由摩根士丹利基建合夥人基金（Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners）牽頭的一個全球投資者集團同意向一家印度電力公司Asian Genco Pte. Ltd.投資4.25億美元。
納特剛去過香港及東京，試圖鼓動其它大型投資者的興趣。他提供的優惠措施包括爲期10年的稅收減免，以及允許外國投資者持有項目全部股份。野村控股（Nomura Holdings Inc.）駐印度的董事經理兼全球市場負責人Pankaj Vaish強烈認爲，外國機構投資者熱衷於來印度投資，特別是進行基建投資。關鍵是投資的條款、條件及估值。
納特最近說，新的公路特許權將很快開始招標，未來幾個月將有多達九個大型公路工程。諸如設定通行費上限等條款需要有足夠吸引力才能招攬到優質建築商，但也要嚴厲到足以實施質量控制。只修路還不夠，修建耐用的公路並進行養護纔是關鍵。
印度基建前景的另一個試金石可能是，過去幾年中通過股市募資達數十億美元的電力公司如何完美地執行既定方案。億萬富翁安巴尼(Anil Ambani)掌控之下的信實電力(Reliance Power Ltd.)在2008年1月募資30億美元后，其首期電廠已於去年12月開始發電。而高估值註定印度有史以來這起最大的IPO在二級市場上以失敗告終。該股股價時至今日仍遠遠低於發行價。
而如果能進一步證實，信實電力及其它公司籌集到的資金有助於產生印度急需的電力，且在此過程中產生盈利，那麼就能鼓動更多投資。景順亞洲棟樑基金(Invesco Asian infrastructure fund)的投資經理Maggie Lee稱，景順基金不會投資於未見盈利的公司。但一旦產生正向現金流，情況就可能發生改變。
Maggie Lee稱，印度向來承諾有餘而履行不足。但她承認，如果印度的基建投資真能啓動，從理論上講，長期而言將比中國更令人興奮。引導基建業發展的印度政府及私人企業需要努力工作，以免讓這種希望落空。
