全球動態:埃及應效仿突尼斯模式

Egypt is more divided than ever. All sides – from Islamists to secularists – are headed to their corners, looking to be victors in the battle for power and refusing to make efforts to accommodate and compromise. If this continues, the country is in real danger of becoming the next Algeria. It should follow, instead, in Tunisia’s footsteps.

目前，埃及已陷入了史無前例的分裂之中。各方力量——從伊斯蘭主義者到世俗主義者——都在奔向死衚衕，他們只想成爲權力戰場上的勝利者，絲毫也不肯變通和妥協。如果這種態勢持續下去，埃及將面臨一種實實在在的危險中，有可能變成下一個阿爾及利亞。相反，埃及應該效仿突尼斯。

Recent events offer ominous signs. Reactions to the overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi, inside and outside Egypt, are simplistic. The picture is painted in black or white: the military’s action was either a coup against democracy or it was a move in defence of democracy.

最近的事態進展呈現出了不祥之兆。埃及國內外對前總統穆罕默德•穆爾西(Mohamed Morsi)被推翻的反應過於簡單化。人們的態度非黑即白：不是認爲軍方發動了一場反對民主的政變，就是認爲軍方採取了捍衛民主的舉措。

But, rather than looking for someone to blame, Egyptians should realise that everyone lost the moment they stopped co-operating.

但是，埃及人不應急於尋找指責對象，反倒應該認識到，一旦各方停止合作，所有人都會成爲輸家。

Islamist and secular forces are trying to exclude each other at every turn. When the Muslim Brotherhood won democratic elections, it pushed through a constitution without winning a consensus, believing victory entitled it to carte blanche in policy decisions. It felt its electoral mandate gave it the right to change society’s behaviour. But, although Egypt is a conservative society, most people do not want their government to tell them how to behave when it comes to religion. More than 10m people poured into the streets – far more than the number of protesters that toppled Hosni Mubarak, the former president. Clearly, a significant portion of society felt excluded in the aftermath of the revolution two years ago.

伊斯蘭主義者與世俗力量處處都竭力排擠對方。穆斯林兄弟會(Muslim Brotherhood)在民主選舉中獲勝之後，尚未取得共識，便強行通過了一部新憲法。穆兄會認爲，選戰勝利賦予其在政策決策中自行其是的權力。該黨覺得，是選民授予了自己改變社會行爲的權力。但是，儘管埃及是個保守社會，多數人也不想讓自己的宗教行爲受到政府的左右。結果，逾千萬人涌上街頭，遠遠超過推翻前總統胡斯尼•穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)的抗議人數。顯然，社會中很大一部分人感覺，在革命後兩年，自己被邊緣化了。

The secular forces are behaving no better. Their parties and leaders set a dangerous precedent when they stopped trying to work with Islamists in the democratic system, turning instead to the military – what is to stop others doing the same next time they are unhappy?

世俗力量也好不到哪兒去。他們的黨派及領導人停止在民主體制內與伊斯蘭主義者合作，轉而求助於軍方，由此開創了一個危險的先例——下一次其他派別不滿意時如法炮製，有誰能夠阻止？

And, at this critical stage, they are not doing enough to include the Muslim Brotherhood. Furthermore, with the army cracking down and rounding up hundreds of Islamists without clear charges, there will soon be no one left to talk to about how to address Egypt’s severe challenges and end the crisis.

而且，在這個關鍵時刻，世俗力量對穆斯林兄弟會也顯得不夠包容。此外，軍隊未拿出任何罪名，便鎮壓並羈押了數百名伊斯蘭主義者，能參與討論如何應對埃及的嚴峻挑戰、結束這場危機的人很快寥寥無幾了。

Both Islamists and secularists are wrong if they think they can build a new Egypt on their own. There is no way the country can be successful if only one party rules. It should be clear to all that the transition was on the wrong track from the start. To avoid perpetuating this, all sides must stop antagonising each other and work together.

如果伊斯蘭主義者與世俗主義者都認爲自己能夠以一己之力建好新埃及，那就大錯特錯了。只有一黨執政，埃及不可能成功。人們應該清醒地認識到，過渡期從一開始就走錯路了。各方力量必須停止相互對抗，攜手合作，才能避免繼續錯下去。

First, Egypt needs a bill of rights that enshrines basic principles. It must guarantee the right of every individual – regardless of religion or gender – to work in government. It must guarantee the rights of minorities. And it must guarantee the peaceful rotation of power. As per the US constitution, no laws can be passed that go against its spirit.

首先，埃及需要一部寫入基本原則的權利法案。這部法案必須保證每一個個體在政府中工作的權力，不論其宗教信仰和性別有何差異。必須保障少數民族的權力。必須保證權力的和平輪換。從美國憲法來看，任何法律只要違背憲法精神，均不得通過。

The bill of rights can then be used to agree to a new, complete constitution. It must be based on consensus reached following negotiations including all sides, much like the one the Tunisians have created. It must not reflect the desires of only some. This is the only way to ensure no force will be able to exclude others or dictate norms of behaviour on Egyptian society.

接下來，可以以這部權利法案爲起點，達成一部完整的新憲法。新憲法必須以各方力量經磋商達成的共識爲基礎，就像突尼斯創建的憲法一樣。新憲法絕不能只體現某些派別的意志。這是保證任何派別都不會排擠其他派別、或者決定埃及社會行爲準則的唯一途徑。

All this must be done before elections are held. It is important to recognise, however, that just because Mr Morsi has been deposed, it does not mean the Islamists are out of the game. While an Islamist candidate is unlikely to win a new vote for president, the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist parties are likely to be victors in any near-term parliamentary election.

這些都必須在選舉之前完成。然而，重要的是必須承認，僅僅穆爾西遭罷黜這一事實，並不意味着伊斯蘭主義者已然出局了。雖然伊斯蘭主義候選人不大可能贏得新一輪總統選舉，但穆兄會以及其他伊斯蘭主義黨派很可能在近期的議會選舉中獲勝。

At this point, Egypt has two possible paths. Either it follows the Tunisian route and establishes an inclusive coalition government where tensions are still prevalent but progress is obvious; or it follows the Algerian route of deep polarisation and possibly civil war. Algeria’s glaring divide persists two decades after Islamists mounted a civil insurgency when they were denied a legitimate electoral triumph.

此刻，埃及有兩條路可走。要麼步上突尼斯之路，建立一個兼容幷包的聯合政府，雖然政府內部緊張態勢依然普遍存在，但也有明顯的進步；要麼走上阿爾及利亞之路，陷入嚴重分裂之中，可能還會點燃內戰。在阿爾及利亞，伊斯蘭主義者於20年前在合法選舉中獲勝卻未被承認，於是他們發動了一場叛亂；20年後的今天，該國社會依然四分五裂。

If secular forces assume a winner-takes-all position and Islamists refuse to learn from their mistakes, Egypt will be back at square one. Even if it maintains the status quo, it faces a continued deterioration of the political and economic situation.

如果世俗力量秉持贏者通吃的態度，伊斯蘭主義者拒絕從錯誤中汲取教訓，埃及將回到原點。即便現狀得以維持，國內政治經濟形勢也會持續惡化。

The country still has the opportunity to choose its own destiny. But the only way for secularists and Islamists to find a way out of the crisis is together.

埃及仍有機會選擇自己的命運。但世俗主義者與伊斯蘭主義者要想走出危機，就必須攜手合作。