時事新聞:美國企業能主導經濟復甦嗎?

【英文原文】

Where Consumers Fail, Can Businesses Lead?

If consumers aren't going to lead a strong economic recovery, businesses might have to. But they mightn't be up to the job.

One measure of business demand will come Wednesday morning with Census Bureau data on July durable-goods orders. Economists estimate orders for long-lasting goods made in U.S. factories surged 3% from June.

July's jump will likely be due mainly to a surge in orders for Boeing airplanes and the restart of automobile manufacturing after bankruptcy-related closures. Excluding transportation goods, some economists estimate orders rose a milder 0.5%.

To gauge business spending, economists further winnow the durable-goods data to one awkwardly named indicator called 'nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.' This roughly measures what companies spend on factory equipment and the like. It has edged higher for the past three months after plunging to a 14-year low in the first quarter, though it is still down nearly 22% from a year ago.

Part of the decline in durables demand was a massive shelf-clearing by U.S. businesses amid fears of an economic collapse. That inventory clearance seems to be over, which should help the economy.

What the economy needs now is a business spending spree that will lead to a hiring boom and rising consumer incomes.

Businesses clearly have the cash. In the first quarter, nonfinancial companies had some $14.1 trillion in financial assets, according to Federal Reserve data, or 100.1% of gross domestic product, a record high.

But after the 2001 recession, businesses accumulated cash, rather than spending it, because of the spending glut during the tech boom. They mightn't have much appetite for spending this time around, either.

They owned more than $4 trillion in equipment and software in the first quarter, about 29% of GDP, not far from the 30% that prevailed during the tech boom. Meanwhile, the nation's factories, utilities and mines in July ran at 68.5% of their production capacity, near a record low, giving them little reason to build out more capacity.

At this point, it isn't even clear that business spending will be strong enough to make the recovery self-sustaining. A business-led boom seems unlikely.

【中文譯文】

美國企業能主導經濟復甦嗎？

如果消費者不願主導一場強勁的經濟復甦，任務可能就落到了企業的頭上。不過他們未必勝任。

美國人口普查局將於週三早上發佈七月份耐用品訂單數，這是衡量企業需求的指數之一。經濟學家預計七月份美國工廠的耐用品訂單比上月增加3%。

七月訂單上升很可能是因爲波音飛機的訂單增加，以及之前因破產而關閉的汽車生產重新恢復。除去交通產品，有些經濟學家估計訂單量僅上升了0.5%。

爲了估算企業花費，經濟學家將耐用品數據加入一個叫做“不包括飛行器的非國防資本貨物”的冗長指數。這個指數衡量公司在工廠設備等產品的花費。在第一季度下探到14年來新低後，該指數在過去三個月中已有所反彈，雖然仍比去年同期低了將近22%。

該指數下跌的一部分原因是美國企業出於對經濟崩潰的恐懼而進行的大量清倉。看上去清理存貨現在已經結束，這對經濟是有利的。

現在經濟需要一場企業消費盛宴，這將會提高就業率和消費者收入。

企業無疑有充足的現金。根據美聯儲的數據，第一季度非金融公司的金融資產達到約14.1萬億美元，是國內生產總值的100.1%，這是有史以來的最高值。

但在2001年的經濟衰退後，企業開始積攢現金，而不是花費現金，因爲在科技泡沫中花了太多的錢。也許這一次他們也沒有多少花錢的意願。

第一季度企業擁有的設備和軟件價值4萬億美元，約佔國內生產總值的29%，跟科技泡沫期間通行的30%相去不遠。同時，美國的工廠、設施及礦山七月份僅運行了68.5%的產能，接近歷史最低。因此他們沒有理由擴建產能。

現在看來，還不清楚企業的花費是否足以支撐經濟的持續復甦。一場由企業主導的繁榮看上去不太可能。