美國經濟復甦情況如何 用數字說話

Behavioral finance teaches us that where money is concerned, Americans do two things over and over again. We adapt and we compare. We adapt to how much we have. Ever get a raise only to wonder a few weeks later how you ever lived on less? You adapted. And we compare ourselves to others. How much we have tends not to be as important as whether we have more or less than the colleague in the next office or the family next door.

行爲金融學告訴我們，在跟金錢有關的問題上，美國人總會反反覆覆地去做兩件事——適應和比較。他們不斷地去適應自己現有財富水平。漲了工資後，是否在幾周之後纔想到，加薪之前自己是怎麼過來的？這就是適應。同時，他們會拿自己跟別人相比。擁有多少財富往往不是那麼重要，重要的是和隔壁辦公室的同事或者鄰居相比，我們的財富是多還是少。

The newly released 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances offers ample opportunity for the latter. I had the opportunity on Monday to debrief with a group of Federal Reserve economists who worked on the research. Diving in, it’s easy to see why – despite the fact that the recession ended in 2009 — much of the country still feels as if the recovery passed it by. Here are high (and low) points:

最新公佈的《2013年美國消費者金融調查報告》（2013 Survey of Consumer Finances）給了我們充分和別人進行比較的機會。本週一，我有機會聆聽那些參與本次調查的美聯儲（Federal Reserve）經濟學家介紹情況。儘管大衰退在2009年就已經結束，但是爲什麼很大一部分美國人仍然覺得自己和經濟復甦擦肩而過？深入瞭解這些經濟學家的介紹後，這個問題的答案就一目瞭然了。以下是本次調查的一些要點：

It’s not the top 1%, it’s the top 3%.

不是那1%，而是那3%。

Although the top 1% of wealthy Americans (and the corresponding 99%) dominate the headlines, the research shows that the top 3% is where the action is – at least as far as income is concerned. The top 3% took a huge hit, proportionately, in income during and following the recession. In 2007, this segment of the population represented 31.4% of the income in the U.S. By 2010, their share had fallen to 27.7%. It has since almost fully recovered, rebounding to 30.5%. Interestingly, the share of income of the rest of the top 10% (the top 4%-10%) has held steady at 17% since 1989. The share of wealth held by the top 3% didn’t swing during the recession. Rather, it has been on a steady climb from 44.8% in 1989 to 54.4% in 2013.

儘管佔據新聞頭條的總是美國人中最富有的那1%（以及相應的那99%），但本次調查表明，變化最大的是那3%最富有的人，至少從收入上來看是這樣。按比例計算，這3%美國人的收入在大衰退期間及以後受到了重大影響。2007年，這部分人佔美國人收入的31.4%。到2010年，這個數字降至27.7%。隨後基本上又回到了原來的水平，反彈至30.5%。有意思的是，在最富有的那10%美國人中，剩下的那些人（也就是排在4%-10%之間的人）佔美國人收入的比例從1989年開始就一直穩定在17%。在大衰退期間，那3%最富有的人所持財富比重沒有出現起伏，而是從1989年的44.8%穩步升至2013年的54.4%。

More than ever, a college degree is a must.

大學文憑的重要性超乎以往。

On average, median pre-tax income (adjusted for inflation) fell for all families by 4.7% between 2010 to 2013. It dropped even further – 5.6% — for those with a high school education only. The only two groups to show real income growth were the top 20% of earners, where income grew by 4.3% and those with a college degree, where income grew by 1.1%. This, the economists noted, was a reflection of the fact that even though total employment is back above it’s pre-recession level, the jobs created haven’t been quality ones. Rather, they’re of the low-wage variety.

平均而言，美國家庭的稅前收入（剔除通脹因素）中位數在2010-2013年期間下降了4.7%。對於只有高中文化程度的家庭來說，這個數字的跌幅更大，達到了5.6%。實際收入出現增長的羣體只有兩個：一是收入水平最高的那20%的人，他們的收入上升了4.3%；二是擁有大學文憑的人，他們的收入提高了1.1%。美聯儲經濟學家指出，由此可以看出，儘管總就業人數又超過了大衰退之前的水平，但是新出現的就業機會質量並不高，往往薪酬都較低。

Fear of the stock market prevails.

普遍對股市感到害怕。

The percentage of American families that own stocks – which peaked in 2001 before beginning to decline – continued to trend down between 2007 and 2013. In 2013, 48.8% of families owned stocks (most through retirement plans rather than directly). That compares with 53.3% in the 2007 survey (the Survey of Consumer Finances is conducted every three years.) That this happened despite the strong rebound in the stock market is a sign, the economists noted, that the volatility in the markets may simply have proven too much to take, particularly for middle income people. Stock ownership is highly concentrated at the top of the income distribution – and contributed to the rebound in wealth among the top 10% (the mean value of their stock holdings rose from $885,000 in 2010 to $969,000 in 2013.)

持有股票資產的美國家庭所佔比重在2001年達到最高點，隨後開始滑落。2007-2013年間這個數字一直呈下行態勢。2013年，48.8%的美國家庭持有股票（但大多數都是通過退休金計劃，而非直接持股）。在2007年的消費者金融調查報告（這項調查每3年進行一次）中，這個數字爲53.3%。美聯儲經濟學家認爲，雖然股市強勁反彈，但這個持股家庭比重的變化表明，股票價格的波動也許大得讓人難以承受，特別是對中等收入羣體來說。股市投資高度集中在收入最多的那部分人中，進而幫助那10%最富有的人實現了財富回升（他們所持股票的平均價值從2010年的88.5萬美元上升到了2013年的96.9萬美元）。

A worrisome ancillary finding shows that the percentage of American families with retirement accounts of all types (IRAs, 401(k)s, Keoghs, etc.) slipped below 50% in 2013. This is likely not just market fear, the economists noted, but part of the general jobs trend. Good high paying jobs tend to come with 401(k) options. Those are not the type being created in this country. For those with retirement accounts, the picture was rosier. The median value rose from $47,200 in 2010 to $59,000 in 2013; the mean from $183,400 to $201,300.

另一個發現是，擁有退休金賬戶[包括任何類型的賬戶，如個人退休金賬戶（IRA）、401(k)賬戶、個體戶退休金賬戶（Keoghs）]的美國家庭所佔比例在2013年跌至50%以下，這讓人感到擔心。美聯儲經濟學家指出，這可能不光是因爲市場中的憂慮情緒，同時也是就業大趨勢使然。高報酬的好工作往往會提供401(k)退休金方案，而美國出現的就業機會並不屬於這種類型。對於擁有退休金賬戶的家庭來說，情況較好——他們的退休金賬戶價值中位數從2010年的4.72萬美元提高到了2013年的5.9萬美元，平均賬戶價值從18.34萬美元上升到了20.13萬美元。

Better news on consumer debt.

消費者負債情況好轉。

Finally, although we may not be earning as much, at least we’re managing it a little bit better. How? By borrowing less. We’re paying down our credit card balances. Through 2013, we were slower to take out new car loans (however, that activity has picked up in the past year). And although student debt has indeed continued to grow, the economists point out that the people taking out the largest sums – the percentage of families with outstanding balances in the $50,000 to $100,000 range jumped from 6% in 2001 to 13% in 2013, those with balances of $100,000+ from 1% to 6% over the same time period – are doctors, lawyers and other professionals who are likely to have the wherewithal to pay that money back, raising less concern over the long-run burden on families.

最後，儘管美國人的收入可能不如以前，但至少美國人對收入的管理稍有好轉。怎麼做到的？減少借貸。美國人降低了信用卡透支水平。在整個2013年，美國的新車貸款增速都較低（不過，車貸在過去一年中已經出現上升勢頭）。學生貸款確實仍在增長，負債5-10萬美元的美國家庭所佔的比重從2001年的6%升至2013年的13%，負債超過10萬美元的家庭佔比從1%增長到了6%。但美聯儲經濟學家指出，貸款最多的人是醫生、律師等職業人士，他們可能有能力償還債務，這讓美國家庭的長期債務問題看上去不是那麼令人擔心。