時事新聞:當中國成爲世界第一大經濟體

How will it feel when China becomes the world’s largest economy? We may find out quite soon. A few weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund issued a report that suggested China would be number one within five years.
當中國成爲世界上最大的經濟體時，我們會有什麼感受？答案不用多久就會揭曉．幾周前，　國際貨幣基金組織發佈一項報告指出，中國將會在五年內成爲世界第一大經濟體．

The projection that the Chinese economy will be larger than that of the US by 2016 included adjustments for the domestic purchasing power of the two countries’ currencies. Some regard this interpretation of IMF data as a dubious move that artificially boosts the size of the Chinese economy. But even using real exchange rates does not defer the day when America is knocked off its perch by very much. A projection by The Economist, made just before Christmas, foresaw China becoming number one in 2019.
對於中國經濟會在２０１６年前超越美國經濟的預測包括了對兩國貨幣購買力的調整．一些人認爲，ＩＭＦ公佈的數據在理解上存在一定的問題，這些數據會人爲地誇大中國經濟的規模．但是就算用真實匯率計算，美國的經濟霸主地位被取代的日子也不會遠多少．＜＜經濟學人＞＞在去年聖誕前預測，中國會在２０１９年成爲世界第一大經濟體．

The ascent of China will change ideas of what it means to be a superpower. Over the course of the American century, the world has got used to the idea that the world’s largest economy was also the world’s most obviously affluent nation. The world’s biggest economy housed the world’s richest people.
中國的崛起將會改變人們對超級大國的觀念．在美國時代的歷程中，各國人們都習慣了這麼一種想法：世界最大的經濟體也是世界上最富有的國家．世界最大的經濟體里居住着世界最有錢的人．

As China emerges as an economic superpower, the connection between national and personal affluence is being broken. China is both richer and poorer than the western world. It is sitting on foreign reserves worth $3 trillion. And yet, measured at current exchange rates, the average American is about 10 times as wealthy as the average Chinese.
隨着中國日益崛起成爲超級經濟大國，一國的財富與個人財富的聯繫正在被打破．中國既比西方國家富有，也比西方國家貧窮．它坐擁３萬億美元的外匯儲備，然而如果按當前匯率來計算，美國的人均財力是中國的十倍．

The relative affluence of US society is one reason why China will not become the world’s most powerful country on the day that it becomes the largest economy. The world’s habit of looking to the US as the “sole superpower” also makes it likely that America’s political dominance will outlast its economic supremacy. America has an entrenched position in global institutions. It matters that the United Nations, the IMF and the World Bank are all situated in the US – and that Nato is built around America.
美國社會的相對富裕正是中國成爲世界最大經濟體之時卻不能成爲世界最強國的原因之一．　人們習慣性地把美國當成是世界唯一超級大國，這也讓美國的世界政治主導地位比其經濟地位更加長久．美國在世界各大機構中都有根深蒂固的地位．有一個很重要的事實是，聯合國，國際貨幣基金組織以及世界銀行均坐落於美國．而且北約也是以美國爲中心建立起來的．

The US military has a global reach and a technological sophistication that China is nowhere near matching. The US is also ahead on soft power. China, as yet, has no equivalents to Hollywood, Silicon Valley or “the American dream”.
美國軍隊擁有中國無法比擬的全球網絡和高端技術. 同時美國在軟實力上也領先. 而中國到目前爲止仍然沒有自己的 “好萊塢”, “硅谷” 或者是 “美國之夢”.

And yet, while economic and political power are not one and the same thing, the two are still closely connected. As China becomes richer, so it becomes more influential. On a recent visit to São Paulo, I heard a senior Brazilian diplomat say bluntly that distant China, as his country’s largest trading partner, was now more important to Brazil than the US. The first foreign trip made by Dilma Rousseff, the new Brazilian president, was to Beijing, not Washington. Chinese trade and investment has also greatly increased the country’s influence across Africa and in the Middle East.
雖然經濟與政治實力不能統一而論, 但是他們卻是緊密相連的. 隨着中國越來越富強, 它產生的影響力也越大. 在最近的聖保羅之旅中, 我聽到一位巴西高級外交官直率地說, 遠方的中國, 作爲巴西的最大貿易伙伴, 如今對巴西的重要性勝於美國. 新任巴西總統迪爾瑪•羅塞夫首次對外訪問去的是北京，而非華盛頓. 中國的貿易和投資也極大地提高了該國對非洲和中國的影響力.

The political questions raised by its economic power will be felt most acutely in China’s immediate neighbourhood. Japan, South Korea and Australia now find that their economic and strategic interests are pointing in different directions. All three countries have their most important economic relationship with China, and their most important military relationship with the US. If China throws its weight around too much – as it has shown signs of doing over the past year – Washington’s Asian allies may hug Uncle Sam even more closely, for a while. But, over time, the growing economic power of China will weigh more and more heavily.
中國由於經濟實力的崛起而引發的政治問題, 其鄰國的感受最爲強烈. 日本, 南韓和澳大利亞發現它們的經濟和戰略利益正在日益分歧. 這三個國家都與中國有非常重要的經濟聯繫, 同時它們與美國也有相當重要的軍事聯繫. 如果中國過分地盛氣凌人—去年已經有此跡象—美國在亞洲的聯盟恐怕會暫時與美國保持更爲緊密的聯繫. 但是隨着時間的推移, 中國的不斷增長的經濟力量將會變得越來越舉足輕重.

A lively debate about how to adapt to an emerging Sinosphere is under way across Asia. Kishore Mahbubani, once head of the Singaporean foreign ministry, says Asians “know that China will still be in Asia in 1,000 years’ time, but we don’t know whether America will still be here in 100 years’ time.”
如今亞洲正在興起關於如何適應日益浮現的 “中國界”的辯論. 前新加坡外交部長馬凱碩表示, 亞洲人 “知道中國仍會在亞洲千秋萬代地立足, 但是我們不知道美國在未來一百年內是否仍然在亞洲有舉足輕重的影響力.”

原文:　選自英國《金融時報》 譯者：愛爾蘭都柏林大學　　賴小琪