中國銀行業加大對房地產放貸力度

Chinese banks have been ramping up lending to developers in recent months, even as falling sales and weaker prices ratchet up the risk of these loans souring.

近幾個月來，中國銀行業一直加大對開發商的放貸力度，而房地產銷售額下降和價格疲軟，增加了這些貸款成爲壞賬的風險。

New home prices in China fell 0.9 per cent in July from June, government data showed on Monday, the third straight monthly drop. Sales volume and construction activity have also slowed as potential buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of expected further price declines.

週一公佈的政府數據顯示，今年7月，新房均價環比下降0.9%，爲連續第三個月下降。銷售和建築活動也已放緩，因爲潛在買家預期房價進一步下降，而採取了觀望態度。

Yet despite this weakness banks, under pressure from the government to prop up the property market, lifted lending to residential real estate developers by 26.9 per cent year-on-year in the first six months of 2014 to Rmb3.1tn. That is a marked increase over the 19.3 per cent year-on-year pace of growth in the first quarter, according to the central bank’s latest monetary policy report.

不過，儘管房地產市場這麼疲軟，但在政府的託市壓力下，今年上半年銀行對住宅地產開發商的貸款同比增長了26.9%，增至3.1萬億元人民幣。根據中國央行最近的貨幣政策報告，跟第一季度19.3%的同比漲幅相比，上半年同比漲幅非常顯著。

Nearly half of the increase went to affordable housing. That leaves banks exposed to highly indebted local governments, who finance such projects largely through off-budget financing vehicles.

在增加貸款中，接近一半流向了保障房項目。債臺高築的地方政府將銀行置於險境，地方政府主要通過預算外融資工具爲此類項目提供資金。

Many of these loans in the first half flowed through China Development Bank, a non-commercial lender dedicated to financing projects in support of government policy.

今年上半年，這些貸款的大部分是通過政策性銀行——國家開發銀行(CDB)——發放的。

Overall property-related lending, which includes personal mortgages, reached Rmb16.2tn by end-June, equal to 20.8 per cent of all local-currency loans, up from 20.6 per cent at end-March.

截至6月底，包括個人抵押貸款在內的房地產相關貸款總量達到16.2萬億元人民幣，高於3月末的20.6%，佔到人民幣貸款總量的20.8%。

Analysts say the increase reflects government efforts to blunt the impact of the slowdown and prevent bankruptcies among developers, whose cash flow is suffering along with the reduction in housing sales.

分析師表示，貸款增加表明政府努力緩解房地產市場放緩的衝擊，並防止開發商破產。房屋銷量的減少導致開發商的現金流難以維繫。

“The real-estate sector overall is sliding downward, but growth stabilisation policies have remained in effect,” said Peng Zhenwei, economist with CEBM Group, a Shanghai-based macro-economic research firm.

“房地產行業總體上在下滑，但穩增長政策仍在發揮效果，”上海宏觀經濟研究公司莫尼塔(CEBM Group)經濟學家彭振威表示。

“The central bank has continuously used ‘window guidance’ to stimulate credit issuance to property. I expect [real estate-linked] credit will further increase in the third quarter.”

“中國央行接二連三地使用‘窗口指導’，刺激向房地產行業發放貸款。我預計，第3季度（房地產相關）信貸將進一步增加。”

Over the weekend, rumours circulated in local media that China Construction Bank, the country’s second-largest lender, may relax mortgage-lending restrictions at its Shanghai branches, presumably with the approval of local authorities. That would make Shanghai the first of China’s top-tier cities to relax purchase restrictions.

上週末，國內媒體紛紛傳言中國第二大銀行——中國建設銀行(CCB)的上海分支機構可能要放鬆抵押貸款限制，並可能已獲得了當地政府的批准。若屬實，上海或將由此成爲中國首個放鬆限購的一線城市。

China Construction Bank did not answer calls seeking comment.

記者致電中國建設銀行請求置評，電話無人接聽。