壓力測試料將助歐洲銀行增加放貸

If five years is an unwisely long time for a person to skip a proper checkup, it is an eternity for a $40 trillion banking sector displaying many signs of ill health.

如果說五年不體檢對於一個人來說過於漫長，是不明智的，那麼對於顯露出許多健康欠佳的跡象，規模40萬億美元的歐洲銀行業來說，五年就彷彿一萬年那麼長。

The results on Sunday of tests that aim to determine if Europe's banks can survive a crisis came roughly half a decade after the United States forced its banks to undergo similarly thorough tests. Earlier European banking tests had been less comprehensive and failed to identify major problems. This examination was also seen as a test of the credibility of the European Central Bank, led by Mario Draghi. The results appeared to be rigorous enough, finding that 13 banks failed the test and that the region's lenders needed $31 billion to bolster their financial footing. Poring over the numbers, banking specialists said that Europe's regulators had done a relatively competent job. While no large banks failed, the tests did not appear to be a whitewash either, they said. As a result, the tests may have instilled some confidence in financial giants that dominate Europe's economy, which could then help jump-start the lending that is needed to reduce the region's chronically high unemployment.

週日，關於歐洲銀行是否有能力抵禦危機的測試結果終於出爐。而大約五年前，美國就曾要求本國銀行進行類似的測試。歐洲銀行業早前接受的測試不如此次全面，未能發現一些重大的問題。此次測試也被認爲是在考驗馬里奧·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)領導的歐洲央行的可信度。測試結果似乎足夠嚴密：有13家銀行未通過測試，爲了在財務上站穩腳跟，該地區的銀行需要補充310億美元資金。研究了相關數字的銀行業專家說，歐洲的監管機構的工作還算比較稱職。他們說，儘管沒有大型銀行未通過測試，但測試中似乎也沒有掩蓋問題。因此，測試結果可能已經爲主導着歐洲經濟的金融巨頭注入了一些信心，進而可能會推動銀行放貸，而這對於降低該地區長期居高不下的失業率十分必要。

"They can be helpful in bringing stability to the European system and also therefore to lending," said Michael S. Barr, who was an assistant secretary at the United States Treasury Department during the first American tests in 2009.

“測試結果有助於爲歐洲的銀行體系，以及信貸市場帶來穩定，”2009年美國首次開展測試時，在美國財政部擔任助理部長的邁克爾·S·巴爾(Michael S. Barr)說。

An upswing in lending may not be long coming in Europe, according to some analysts and investors.

一些分析師和投資者說，過不了多久，歐洲銀行的貸款就會出現增長。

"When nonperforming loans are rising and eroding capital you are unlikely to lend more," said Atul Lele, chief investment officer at Deltec International. "And when banks are better capitalized, there is more appetite to lend."

“當不良貸款不斷增長並侵蝕資本時，不可能發放更多貸款，”Deltec International的首席投資官阿圖爾·萊勒(Atul Lele)說。“只有當銀行資本更充裕時，放貸的積極性纔會更高。”

Stress tests are used by banking regulators around the world as a systematic and public way to force banks into shape. In doing so, they focus on capital ratios, which measure how much a bank finances its operations with its own cash flows and shareholder funds. The more capital a bank has, the less it relies on borrowed money, a flighty source of funding that can evaporate in a crisis.

世界各地的銀行監管業機構都會使用壓力測試，作爲一種系統和公開的方法，來促使銀行保持良好的狀況。壓力測試主要關注銀行的資本充足率，這個指標衡量的是一家銀行有多少自有現金流和股東資金來支持運營。一家銀行的資本越多，對於負債的依賴程度就越小。負債是一種不可靠的資金來源，在危機爆發時可能會迅速蒸發。

In the stress tests, the authorities and the banks guess the amount of losses the banks would suffer on loans and securities in dire economic and financial situations. They then calculate how much capital the bank would have left after bearing the losses. If the capital falls below a certain threshold at a bank, it fails the test — and has to take remedial actions quickly. Monte dei Paschi di Siena of Italy, the world's oldest bank, met that fate, for instance. It had to find about $2.7 billion of capital.

在壓力測試中，監管機構和銀行會評估，在糟糕的經濟和金融環境下，銀行會因爲發放的貸款和投資的債券，蒙受多少損失。然後，它們會計算銀行的剩餘資本。如果銀行的剩餘資本沒有達到一個特定的門檻，就是沒有通過測試——這意味着它必須要儘快採取補救措施。例如，世界上最古老的銀行、意大利的西雅那銀行(Monte dei Paschi di Siena)就面臨着這樣的命運，它必須籌措大約27億美元的資本。

The big hope is that the healthier banks will now lend more to corporations in Europe. Since the financial crisis of 2008, bank loans to companies have fallen by $690 billion, or 11 percent, according to data from the European Central Bank. Partly offsetting that decline, European companies have increased their borrowing through bonds by $545 billion over that period, according to central bank data. Even so, over that period American banks ended up increasing lending to companies. After a decline, loans to corporations grew $203 billion, or 13 percent, all while corporate bond issuance was booming.

較爲健康的銀行被寄予厚望，人們期待它們現在能給歐洲的企業提供更多貸款。歐洲央行的數據顯示，自2008年的金融危機以來，面向企業的銀行貸款已經減少了6900億美元，降幅達11%。歐洲央行的數據還顯示，歐洲企業同期通過發行債券借來的資金增加了5450億美元，在一定程度上填補了銀行貸款的減少。即便如此，同一時期美國銀行面向企業的貸款最終實現了增長。在經歷一段時間的下滑後，企業貸款增加了2030億美元，增幅達13%，而與此同時，企業債券發行也很繁榮。

Still, Mr. Barr recalls that the uptick in the United States took a while to occur. "There was not an immediate surge of new lending in 2009," he said, "It took a significant period of time, additional fiscal stimulus and additional government programs to revive lending."

然而，巴爾回憶稱，美國的回升花了一段時間。“2009年並非立即就出現了新貸款的激增，”他說。“用了相當一段時間，以及額外的財政刺激和政府計劃，信貸纔開始復甦。”

The American stress tests may have worked because they took place at a time when the government was doing so much else. At the time, the Federal Reserve's bond buying program was injecting trillions of dollars into the banking system and the wider economy. The European Central Bank has similar stimulus programs in place, but economists mostly doubt that they will have the same impact as the Fed's.

美國的壓力測試之所以起了作用，或許是因爲進行壓力測試時，政府還採取了很多其他措施。當時，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的債券購買計劃正在向銀行體系和整體經濟，注入數以萬億美元計的資金。歐洲央行也實施了類似的刺激計劃，但經濟學家大多懷疑，它能否發揮和美聯儲的計劃相同的效果。

But the American stress tests may also have been better designed. In 2009, the United States regulators structured the stress tests in such a way that banks could not meet required capital ratios by cutting their lending or holdings of securities, actions that can damage the economy. Instead, the capital increases had to come from measures like issuing new shares to investors. "This was an additional signal of market confidence," Mr. Barr said.

但或許美國的壓力測試設計得也更好。2009年，美國監管機構籌劃壓力測試時，使銀行無法通過削減貸款或減持證券，來達到要求的資本充足率。這些行爲可能會損害經濟。當時擴充資本只能通過向投資者增發新股等手段。“這是另一個顯示市場信心的信號，”巴爾說。

Yves Mersch, a member of the European Central Bank's board, said last week that the region's banks, anticipating the stress tests, had bolstered their balance sheets to the tune of $260 billion. But only 40 percent of that sum came from issuing equity and retaining earnings, the purest forms of capital that investors trust most.

歐洲央行執行委員會成員伊夫·默施(Yves Mersch)上週表示，歐洲的銀行爲了迎接壓力測試，已經讓各自的資產負債表增加到了2600億美元。但其中僅40%來自發行股票和留存收益，這是兩種最純粹的資本形式，最受投資者信賴。

The stress tests have paved the way for the European Central Bank to assume full authority over the Continent's banks. Like the Federal Reserve in the United States, it may choose to gradually stiffen the tests to increase the chances that they appear credible. One way to do that would be to determine whether the banks could meet a clearer measure of their capital called the leverage ratio. This yardstick, which is less vulnerable to manipulation, is included in American tests.

壓力測試已經爲歐洲央行全權監管歐洲大陸的銀行鋪平了道路。和美國的美聯儲一樣，歐洲央行可能會選擇逐步提高測試的嚴格程度，從而加大測試結果可信的概率。做到這一點的一個辦法是，檢驗銀行是否能滿足一個更清楚的標準。這個衡量銀行資本的指標叫做槓桿率，不那麼容易受到操縱。美國的測試中就包括這一指標。

But applying the leverage ratio may reveal a yawning hole at European banks, according to an analysis by Sascha Steffen, an associate professor at ESMT European School of Management and Technology in Berlin, and Viral V. Acharya, a professor of economics at New York University. They first assumed European banks had to write off all the nonperforming loans that are not covered by reserves. Then they calculated how much equity capital the banks would then need so that their equity capital equaled 4 percent of total assets. In that situation, the banks in the sample would have a theoretical capital shortfall of nearly $350 billion.

但柏林的歐洲管理技術學院(European School of Management and Technology)副教授薩沙·斯特芬(Sascha Steffen)和紐約大學(New York University)經濟學教授維拉爾·V·阿查裏雅(Viral V. Acharya)合作撰寫的一份分析報告顯示，使用槓桿率可能就會暴露歐洲銀行存在的一個大缺口。他們首先假定歐洲的銀行被迫減記了準備金未覆蓋的所有不良貸款。然後，他們計算了銀行需要多少股權資本，才能使股權資本滿足總資產的4%。在這種情形下，採樣的銀行理論上有近3500億美元的資本缺口。

"If solvency is not taken care of, there might still be problems," Mr. Steffen said.

“如果不重視償付能力，仍然會出現問題，”斯特芬說。