房地產投資放緩拖累中國經濟增長

HONG KONG — Renhe Commercial appears to have a well-fortified business model: It builds air raid shelters across China for the government, outfitting them as underground shopping malls for use during peacetime.

香港——人和商業似乎擁有一種堅不可摧的商業模式：這家公司在中國各地爲政府建造防空設施，並將其打造爲供和平時期使用的地下商城。

But even that strategy has not been enough to protect the company from the fallout from China’s property market slump.

然而，就連這種策略都不足以使公司免受中國房地產市場低迷帶來的影響。

Like many Chinese developers, Renhe is struggling with financial losses and debt, and it has been looking for other sources of income. This week, it said it was buying a collection of farmers’ markets for $800 million, even after sharply reining in spending on new property projects.

與中國許多開發商一樣，人和公司正在財務損失和債務問題上苦苦掙扎，一直在尋找其他收入來源。就在大力控制新地產項目支出後，人和公司本週表示將以65億港元（約合49.5億元人民幣）的價格收購多家農產品市場。

The company’s problems highlight a broader challenge that the property market poses to China’s economic growth. Despite recent signs that housing prices are stabilizing, a backlog of unsold homes and unleased shops means that builders simply are not doing much building.

這家公司的問題突顯了樓市給中國經濟增長帶來的總體挑戰。儘管最近有跡象表明房價企穩，但待售房屋和待租商鋪的積壓意味着，地產商目前並沒有進行多少建造活動。

Data released Thursday showed that investment in residential and commercial real estate development rose 5.1 percent in May compared with a year earlier, its slowest pace since early 2009. Land purchases by developers continued a sharp decline, falling 31 percent by area and 25.8 percent by value last month. Housing starts fell 16 percent, measured by floor area.

週四公佈的數據顯示，今年5月，針對住宅與商業地產開發項目的投資同比增長5.1%。這是自2009年初以來的最低增速。開發商的土地收購活動銳減，上個月的收購面積縮小31%，總價下降25.8%。以建築面積來看，新房開工量減少16%。

“Real estate developers are speeding up destocking but not starting new projects,” said Haibin Zhu, the chief China economist at JPMorgan in Hong Kong.

摩根大通(JP Morgan)駐香港的首席中國經濟師朱海斌表示，“房地產開發商正在加速減少房屋存量，而不是開啓新的項目。”

“The implications are also twofold,” Mr. Zhu said. “The rebound in transactions and stabilized house prices suggest that financial risk related to the housing market is mitigated, but weak real estate investment suggests that the drag on economic growth continues.”

“影響也是雙重的，”朱海斌說。“交易量反彈、房價企穩的現象說明，與樓市有關的金融風險有所緩解，但疲軟的房地產投資表明，對經濟增長的拖累仍在繼續。”

China’s property market has an outsize effect on its economy, which expanded last year at the slowest pace in 24 years. By some economists’ estimates, real estate and related industries account for more than 20 percent of China’s gross domestic product. The sector directly affects industries as diverse as construction companies, steel and cement plants, banks and property brokerages.

中國經濟去年的增速降至24年以來的最低水平，而房地產市場對中國經濟有着巨大影響。根據一些經濟學家的估算，房地產及相關產業在中國國內生產總值中佔比逾20%。房地產行業直接影響包括建築公司、鋼鐵廠、水泥廠、銀行和房地產經紀公司在內的衆多領域。

There are increasing signs that prices and sales volumes are stabilizing. The property market appears to be responding to recent moves by China’s central bank to lower interest rates and free banks to lend more. Policy makers in recent months have also unwound several restrictions on mortgages and purchases of second homes that had been introduced years earlier to prevent the market from overheating.

越來越多的跡象表明，中國的房價和房屋銷售量企穩。在央行最近採取降低利率並允許銀行投放更多貸款的舉措後，房地產市場似乎有了起色。決策部門近幾個月來還解除了針對房貸及購買二套房的幾項限制。中國在幾年前推出了這些限制政策，以防止市場過熱。

Last week, Moody’s Investors Service upgraded its outlook for China’s property sector, forecasting modest housing sales growth of up to 5 percent in the next 12 months, compared with a decline of 7.8 percent in 2014.

上週，穆迪投資者服務公司(Moody's Investors Service)上調了對中國房地產行業的展望，預計中國的房屋銷售額在未來12個月中會出現5%的適度增長。相比之下，2014年的房產銷售額下降了7.8%。

That is good news for developers and for banks that issue mortgages. But it does not mean a flurry of new construction will follow. China’s huge oversupply of unsold homes — mostly outside the biggest cities — and builders’ large holdings of undeveloped land mean that the potential lift from rising housing prices for the broader economy will be muted.

對於開發商和發放抵押貸款的銀行來說，這是個好消息。不過，它並不意味着新的建設項目會接踵而至。中國的待售房屋大大過剩——大多在大城市以外的地方——地產商也握有大量未開發土地。這意味着，房價上升提振宏觀經濟的可能性不大。

For example, China’s least-developed cities, so-called Tier 3 and 4 localities, have nearly three years’ worth of sales in unsold homes on the market, according to a recent paper published by the International Monetary Fund.

例如，國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)最近發佈的一篇文章顯示，在中國開發程度最低的城市，即所謂的三四線城市，市場上的待售房屋存量相當於將近三年的銷售量。

“Overall, developers are more cautious in buying land, given the expectation of slower growth going forward,” said Simon Wong, a vice president at Moody’s, a credit rating agency. “The majority of rated developers have a land inventory of about three to five years, and that’s quite ample.”

“總體來看，鑑於增速放緩的前景，開發商在購買土地的問題上越來越謹慎，”信用評級機構穆迪的副總裁王智健(Simon Wong)說。“大多數接受評級的開發商擁有大約三到五年的土地存量，這個量相當大。”

The effects of lackluster activity in the property sector can be seen across the economy. On Tuesday, economists at China’s central bank lowered their economic growth target for the year to 7 percent, from 7.1 percent, citing the drag from the housing market as a major factor.

房地產行業的低迷產生的影響，可以在各個經濟部門中感受到。週二，中國央行的經濟學家把今年的經濟增長目標從7.1%下調至7%，並稱房地產市場的拖累是其中的一個主要因素。

Data released Monday showed that imports continue to decline, falling 18.1 percent in May from the level of a year earlier. Officials have blamed weak global commodity prices, but China’s imports of key materials like iron ore and copper have also started falling in volume terms. That is a sign of weak domestic demand, as diminished construction activity means decreased demand for steel girders and copper wiring, for example.

週一發佈的數據顯示，中國的進口額還在下滑，5月的數據同比下降18.1%。官方將原因歸咎於國際大宗商品價格走低，但是從體量來看，中國對鐵礦石和銅等關鍵原材料的進口也開始下跌。這表明，隨着建築活動減少，對鋼樑和銅線等商品的需求量也在降低，使得國內需求不振。

That has left Chinese developers scrambling to find new moneymakers.

在這種情況下，中國開發商不得不爭相尋找能盈利的新業務。

Evergrande Real Estate Group, a heavily indebted developer based in the southern city of Guangzhou, has recently branched into new businesses, including bottled mineral water, grain and edible oils and a cosmetic surgery clinic. Dalian Wanda, a mall developer, announced plans last year to go into e-commerce.

總部設在華南城市廣州的恆大地產集團負債嚴重，它近期開拓了不少新的業務領域，其中包括瓶裝礦泉水、穀物、食用油和美容整形醫院。開發商場項目的大連萬達集團去年宣佈將進軍電子商務領域。

For Renhe, the business of converting bomb shelters into shopping malls has turned costly and unprofitable. The company has accumulated debt, reporting net losses and negative cash flow for the past several years.

對於人和而言，把防空設施改造爲商場的業務逐漸變得成本高昂、無利可圖。過去幾年，公司債務不斷累積，公告中出現了淨虧損和負現金流。

With only about 900 million renminbi, or about $150 million, in cash on hand, Renhe will have to find a way to repay or refinance a $1 billion bond it sold to international investors, which comes due for repayment in nine months.

人和手中的現金只有大概9億元人民幣。公司出售給國際投資者的一筆10億美元（約合62億元人民幣）的債券將於九個月後到期，公司必須找到償還辦法，或者進行再融資。

The company’s “cash position has declined quite significantly,” said Mr. Wong of Moody’s. “I think Renhe’s business model is quite difficult to sustain.”

人和公司的“現金狀況出現了相當嚴重的惡化”，穆迪的王智健說。“我認爲人和的商業模式難以維繫下去。”

Renhe’s deal for eight farmers’ markets in six cities across China is designed to generate minimum annual profit from rents of 625 million Hong Kong dollars, or about $80 million. But it comes with a twist. Renhe is buying the markets from one of its directors, who is also the wife of the company’s chairman and controlling shareholder.

人和一共買下了中國六座城市的八個農產品市場，意圖通過收取租金每年獲得至少6.25億港元的利潤。然而，這樁收購還有一個微妙之處。人和是從公司的一名董事手中收購這些市場的，而此人還是公司董事長和控股股東的妻子。

It will settle most of the purchase price by issuing new shares — but those shares will be issued at a 50 percent discount to where the stock traded before the deal was announced.

人和將通過發行新股的方式來支付大部分的收購價——不過，這些新股將以收購消息公佈前的股市交易價的一半發行。

The developer said it saw the potential for more than just rental yields. The company wants to create an agricultural e-commerce business “by bringing together traders through an electronic trading platform and network to create virtual market places.”

人和表示，除租金以外，公司認爲這些市場還存在其他潛力。人和希望“通過電子交易平臺和網絡來聚集農貿交易人員，從中創建出虛擬市場”，從而打造自身的農業電商業務。