我們該怎麼拯救你 迷失的底特律

Detroit is beautiful-though you probably have to be a child of the industrial Midwest, like me, to see it. As you may have heard, the city is in trouble. At the end of the 2013 fiscal year, Detroit had a balance sheet with liabilities of $9.05 billion. The city's emergency manager, Kevyn Orr, estimates long-term debt at $18 billion.

底特律是個美麗的城市，但你得跟我一樣，從小在這個中西部工業城市長大，才能發現它的美麗。你可能已經聽說了，底特律碰上了麻煩。2013財年末，底特律的資產負債表上的負債有90.5億美元。該市的應急財務經理奧爾(Kevyn Orr)估計，該市的長期債務將達到180億美元。

But I know how to fix Detroit, because it reminds me of another favorite place, Hong Kong-two things so opposite that they evoke each other the way any Kardashian is a reminder that you love home and mother.

但我知道底特律該怎麼辦，因爲它讓我想起了另一個我非常喜歡的城市――香港。這兩個城市迥然相異，但又都會讓人在看到其中一座城市的時候在頭腦中想到另一座城市，就好比卡戴珊(Kardashian)會讓你想起，你愛自己的家，愛自己的母親。

Hong Kong's per capita GDP is among the highest in the world. But it was once a worse mess than Detroit. Devastated by Japanese occupation, the British colony's population had declined from 1.6 million in 1941 to 600,000 by 1945. Then, after the 1949 communist victory on the mainland, a million refugees arrived. Most of them were penniless. Britain's Labor government was penniless, too. Maybe Hong Kong could have gone into Chapter 9. But who would have been the bankruptcy judge? Chairman Mao?

香港的人均本地生產總值(GDP)在全球屬最高之列。但曾幾何時，香港的麻煩比底特律還大。因爲日佔時期受到蹂躪，當時爲英國殖民地的香港的人口從1941年的160萬降低到1945年的60萬。然後，在共產黨於1949年在大陸獲得勝利之後，100萬名難民來到香港。大多數難民身無分文。英國的勞動黨政府也一文不名。香港當時可能差不多都要破產了，但誰能來當法官主持這宗破產案呢？毛主席？

Instead Hong Kong had the good fortune to get John (later Sir John) Cowperthwaite, a young official sent out to push the colony's economy toward recovery. 'I did very little,' he once said. 'All I did was to try to prevent some of the things that might undo it.'

香港並沒有破產，相反地，它運氣很好，它有郭伯偉(John Cowperthwaite)，也就是後來的郭伯偉爵士。當時的郭伯偉是一名年輕的官員，他的任務是推動香港經濟進入復甦軌道。他有一次這樣說道，我幾乎沒做什麼事，我所做的就是努力防止發生某些可能毀掉香港經濟的事。

Such as taxes. Even now, Hong Kong has no sales tax; no VAT; no taxes on capital gains, interest income or earnings outside Hong Kong; no import or export duties; and a top personal income-tax rate of 15%.

比如稅收。即便是現在，香港也不徵銷售稅，不徵增值稅，不徵資本利得稅，利息收入或者在香港之外地區的盈利也不徵稅，不徵進出口關稅，而且個人所得稅最高稅率爲15%。

Cowperthwaite was financial secretary from 1961 to 1971, Hong Kong's period of fastest economic growth. Sir John, however, wouldn't allow collection of economic statistics for fear they'd lead to political meddling. Some statistics nonetheless: During Cowperthwaite's tenure, Hong Kong's exports grew by an average of 13.8% a year, industrial wages doubled and the number of households in extreme poverty shrank from half to 16%.

郭伯偉在1961年到1971年之間任香港的財政司司長，而這段時間是香港經濟增長最快的時期。不過，郭伯偉不許採集經濟統計數據，因爲他害怕這會引來政治的干預。不過，統計數據還是有一些的：在郭伯偉任職期間，香港的出口平均每年增長13.8%，行業工資翻了一番，極端貧困家庭的佔比從50%降至16%。

With that in mind, I was talking to a friend in Michigan. We discussed Detroit's poverty, crime, depopulation and insolvency.

我在跟密歇根的一個朋友聊天的時候，腦子裏就想着這件事。我們討論了底特律的貧窮、犯罪、人口減少和無力償債等情況。

'Make it into Hong Kong,' I said, 'with polite Canadians next door instead of a scary Politburo.'

我說，把底特律變成香港吧，而且隔壁是彬彬有禮的加拿大人，不是讓人心生恐懼的政治局。

'Someone's way ahead of you,' he told me.

他對我說，有些人早就想到了。

Real-estate developer Rod Lockwood wants investors to buy Detroit's derelict 982-acre Belle Isle Park and persuade the U.S. to allow Belle Isle a territorial status like Guam and all the tax benefits of Hong Kong-with easier access to Red Wings games.

房地產開發商洛克伍德(Rod Lockwood)希望投資者們買下底特律被遺棄的佔地982英畝的百麗島公園(Belle Isle Park)，並說服美國賦予百麗島跟關島(Guam)一樣的地位，擁有香港的全部稅收優惠，還要能更方便地觀看底特律紅翼隊的比賽。

Belle Isle has room for only about 50,000 people and just one bridge to the city. It might seem more of a gated community than an overseas possession. So Mr. Lockwood has expanded his proposal to include 15 square miles of Detroit's distressed east side. I think Mr. Lockwood should try for the city's entire 143 square miles.

百麗島上只能供5萬人居住，與主城只有一橋之隔。這看起來就像是一個封閉式社區，不像是海外私產。因此，洛克伍德還在自己的企劃中加入了底特律蕭條的東區15平方英里的地塊。在我看來，洛克伍德可以試試把底特律這143平方英里都賣掉。

Could it really work? Mr. Lockwood took me on a city tour with Larry Mongo, owner of Café D'Mongo's Speakeasy, a popular hangout for Detroit's hipsters. (Hipster scenes tend to spring up anywhere cheap real estate abuts young people, and just up Woodward Avenue, at Wayne State, there are 31,000 of them.)

這真的能有用嗎？洛克伍德帶着我和蒙戈(Larry Mongo)在城裏轉了一圈。蒙戈是Cafe D'Mongo's Speakeasy的東家，這個咖啡館是底特律趕時髦的人常去的地方。（趕時髦的人聚集的地方往往是房地產價格特別便宜的地方，年輕人喜歡這樣的地方，在Woodward Avenue北部，在韋恩州立大學，這樣的地方有3.1萬個。）

Detroit's industrial ruins are picturesque, like crumbling Rome in an 18th-century etching. The tragedy is the desert of blue-collar neighborhoods. Almost every home is burned, a crack house, a cellar hole or stripped of all that's salvageable.

底特律的工業廢墟別具一格，就像18世紀蝕刻畫中殘破的羅馬。這個悲劇是藍領社區撤離造成的。幾乎每一棟房子都被燒過了，只剩下斷壁殘垣，幾乎沒有什麼值得搶救的東西了。

Hong Kong economics would mean curtailing U.S. welfare and benefit programs, but Detroiters seem to have found the holes in the social safety net already. Forty-four percent are living below poverty level. They could, however, benefit from the jobs and commerce in a vibrant, tax-free Hong Kong economy.

如果在經濟上借用香港的方法，將意味着削減美國的福利和優惠計劃，但底特律人似乎已經感受到了社會安全網上的破洞。有44%的底特律居民生活在貧困線以下。不過，如果底特律效仿香港的做法，底特律人或許可以從充滿活力的免稅經濟所帶來的工作崗位和商貿活動獲益。

Amid the desolation, we came across a tidy bungalow-lawn mowed, sidewalk swept, flower beds planted, and bars on every downstairs door and window. Mr. Mongo said, 'The old folks are still living there.' A lifetime was spent paying the mortgage and making improvements on a place that now isn't worth the $8,500 it costs to demolish a house in Detroit.

在一片荒蕪中，我們發現了一座幹 整潔的房子――修剪整齊的草坪、打掃幹 的便道、種滿鮮花的花壇、樓下的每扇門窗都釘上了鐵欄杆。蒙戈說：老人們仍生活在這裏。有些人一輩子都在償還抵押貸款，改造房屋，而如今在底特律這樣一座房子的 值還不及拆除房子所需的8,500美元。

Christopher Brooks, senior pastor at the 1,500-member Evangelical Ministries Church in Detroit, said a concept like Belle Isle 'would initially be greeted with hostility because of the widespread suffering in Detroit. A 'Wealth Haven' would cause a war on the middle class.' However, he said, 'If you're talking about the whole Belle Isle is the start of a plan, I'd support it. A lot of clergy would get behind it.' Pastor Brooks said, 'If there were a real plan to encourage jobs and wealth, the welfare problem would solve itself.'

底特律福音事工教會(Evangelical Ministries Church)高級牧師布魯克斯(Christopher Brooks)說，由於底特律人普遍生活困難，像百麗島這樣的概念開始時將受到敵意的對待。該機構有1,500名成員。他說，財富避風港將給中產階級帶來一場戰爭。不過，他說，如果你說的是整個城市……如果百麗島只是計劃的開端，我會支持它。很多神職人員都會支持。布魯克斯說，如果有一個真正的促進就業和財富增長的計劃，福利問題將自然而然地解決。

Granted, turning Detroit into Hong Kong wouldn't be simple. I talked to Chris Crosby, a municipal bond analyst at Raymond James. He listened patiently as I explained the advantages of a city that would actually be worth something to prospective municipal bondholders. Here is the main part of the rest of our conversation.

誠然，將底特律變成香港並不是件容易的事。筆者曾與Raymond James的市政債券分析師克羅斯比(Chris Crosby)談過。他耐心地聽我解釋一個在潛在市政債券持有人看來有些價值的城市所具有的優勢。以下爲我們剩餘對話的主要內容。

Me: 'Is this feasible?

我：這可行嗎？

Mr. Crosby: 'No.'

克羅斯比：不可行。

The political barriers are too high-politicians don't like to give up power. Of course, politicians also give up power in a bankruptcy, which is why Mr. Crosby likes Detroit's bankruptcy. It will be so politically painful that other big cities won't try it.

政治壁壘太高了――政客們不願放棄權力。當然，政客們還是得在破產案中放棄權力，正因爲如此，克羅斯比喜歡底特律的破產。這在政治上太痛苦了，所以其他大城市不願嘗試。

Detroit's politics are already painful. Former Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is serving 28 years in prison. Local joke: 'What's the difference between Chicago and Detroit?'

底特律的政治形勢已經很悲慘了。前市長基爾帕特里克(Kwame Kilpatrick)目前正在監獄裏服刑，他被判28年有期徒刑。當地有一個笑話是這樣說的：芝加哥和底特律之間有什麼不同？

'Chicago got Michael Corleone. Detroit got Fredo.'

“芝加哥有邁克爾•科萊奧內(Michael Corleone)。底特律有弗雷多(Fredo)。”（編者按：邁克爾•科萊奧內和弗雷多都是《教父》系列影片中的人物，弟弟邁克爾讓人把哥哥弗雷多殺死了。）

Plus introducing Hong Kong's sharp-clawed wolverine species of capitalism into the Wolverine State would require a bold stroke from Washington. It's hard to imagine anything bold from this Congress of head-butting pro-wrestler wannabes.

此外，將香港尖牙利爪的資本主義之狼引入素有“狼獾之州”之稱的密歇根州，將需要華盛頓的大膽行動。難以想象這屆充斥着不惜打得頭破血流的急功近利者的國會會做出任何大膽的舉動。

But something needs to be done. Sen. Rand Paul weighed in with a Dec. 6 speech at the Detroit Economic Club. (The economy may be gone, but we Midwesterners are 'joiners,' so there's still a club.) He said he'd introduce legislation creating 'Economic Freedom Zones' with personal and business tax rates of 5%.

但有些事需要去做。參議員保羅(Rand Paul)去年12月6日在底特律經濟俱樂部(Detroit Economic Club)發表了演講，由此加入了這場論戰。（經濟可能不行了，但我們中西部人“愛參加各種社團活動”，所以俱樂部還是要有的。）他說，他將提出立法建立“經濟自由區”，自由區內的個人和企業稅率爲5%。

Anyway, Detroit is broke. And so was Hong Kong. In 1949 the colony had just one asset. Hong Kong owned Hong Kong-all the land except what was under the Anglican cathedral. Hong Kong sold leaseholds, first for a little, then for a lot.

但不管怎樣，底特律是破產了。香港也曾破產過。1949年，當時還是殖民地的香港只有一樣資產。香港擁有香港――除 約翰座堂下的土地以外的全部土地。香港出售了租賃權，先是一點點，接着是大量出售。

And Detroit owns Detroit, or a very large chunk of it. In 2011 more than half the owners of Detroit's 305,000 properties failed to pay property taxes. Detroit has approximately 40 square miles of vacant land.

底特律也擁有底特律，更確切的說是底特律的很大一部分。2011年，底特律30.5萬套房產的房主中有一半以上沒有繳納房產稅。底特律有約40平方英里（約合4,100平方公里）的閒置土地。

If people cannot be convinced by reason, maybe they can be convinced by greed. Forty square miles equals 1.1 billion square feet. One recent estimate put Hong Kong land prices at more than $1,300 per square foot. Translated into Detroit, that's $1.4 trillion.

如果講道理無法說服人們，那麼也許可以用貪婪來說服他們。40平方英里相當於11億平方英尺。最近的一項估計數據顯示，香港地價超過每平方英尺1,300美元。按這樣的單價計算，底特律的土地價值達1.4萬億美元。

So my investment advice: go short on Manhattan penthouses and long on empty lots in Detroit.

所以筆者的投資建議是：做空曼哈頓頂層公寓，做多底特律的空置地塊。