債務增長推動中國資產管理業改革

China’s top regulators unveiled radical reforms for the country’s asset management industry this month, in a push by the government to defuse the investment risks accumulating across the Asian giant’s financial system.

上月，中國頂級監管機構宣佈了對國內資產管理行業的激進改革。中國政府正在努力化解這個亞洲巨人的金融體系中不斷積累的投資風險。

The reforms, which are also designed to improve standards of investor protection and to set the asset management industry on a sustainable growth path, follow huge increases in debt and leverage that threaten the sustainability of the Chinese economy.

《關於規範金融機構資產管理業務的指導意見（徵求意見稿）》也是爲了提高投資者保護標準，並讓資管行業進入可持續增長的軌道。此前，債務水平和槓桿水平大幅升高，對中國經濟發展的可持續性構成了威脅。

Retail investors in China have been ploughing money into lightly regulated or unregulated wealth management products that offer higher yields than bank deposits.

中國的散戶投資者近年買入監管很少或不受監管的理財產品，這些產品的收益率高於銀行存款。

These wealth management products are issued by banks, insurance companies and other financial groups that are supervised by different regulators, which has led to massive growth in so-called non-standard credit assets or the shadow banking sector.

這些理財產品的發行者是受到不同監管機構監管的銀行、保險公司和其他金融集團。這導致了所謂非標信貸資產或者影子銀行業的大幅增長。

David Yin, a senior analyst at Moody’s, the credit rating agency, in Hong Kong, says, historically, financial companies were able to circumvent restrictions on their activities under the previous regime. But he says this should no longer be possible under new rules that will create a unified regulatory framework covering all asset management products for the first time.

信用評級機構穆迪(Moody's)駐香港資深分析師David Yin表示，傳統上，金融企業在以往的體制下能夠繞過針對它們行爲的限制措施。但他表示，在新規下，這種情況應當不再可能——新規將首次打造一個覆蓋所有資產管理產品的統一監管框架。

“The guidelines classify asset management products by their fundraising method (public or private) and their investment scope, and will subject them to uniform requirements so as to reduce regulatory arbitrage,” says Mr Yin.

“這些指導意見根據資管產品的融資渠道（公開或私下）和投資範圍對其進行分類，並讓它們符合統一的要求，從而減少監管套利，”David Yin說。

Asset managers will have to clearly distinguish products offered for sale to the general public from products marketed to qualified investors that meet minimum income and wealth thresholds. Products sold by private placement to qualified investors can invest in unlisted securities but products sold to ordinary retail investors must invest mainly in low-risk, highly liquid equity and fixed-income assets.

資產管理公司將不得不明確區分兩類產品，一類是對大衆銷售的產品，另一類的營銷對象是達到一定收入和財富門檻的合格投資者。以私募方式向合格投資者出售的產品，可以投資於未上市證券，但出售給普通散戶投資者的產品必須主要投資於風險低、流動性高的股票和固定收益產品。

“The [new] guidelines will close many regulatory loopholes while leaving room for the orderly and sustainable growth of China’s asset management business,” says Lan Shen, an economist at Standard Chartered bank in Shanghai.

“（新）指導意見將關上許多監管漏洞，同時也爲中國資管業務的有序、可持續增長留下空間，”渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)駐上海經濟學家申嵐說。

New leverage limits will also be applied, with a debt ratio (measured as total assets divided by net assets) set at 140 per cent for products sold to retail investors and at 200 per cent for products sold privately to qualified investors.

中國也將實施新的槓桿率上限，出售給散戶投資者的產品的負債比例（總資產/淨資產）上限定爲140%，通過私募方式出售給合格投資者的產品的負債比例上限爲200%。

The asset minimum for qualified investors has been increased from Rmb3m ($454,000) to Rmb5m ($756,000).

合格投資者的資產門檻已從300萬元人民幣（合45.4萬美元）提高至500萬元人民幣（合75.6萬美元）。

Another important development is a prohibition on asset managers offering “no loss” principal protection products or promising a guaranteed rate of return. Asset managers will also be required to set aside 10 per cent of any management fees they collect as provision for potential losses.

另一項重要變化是，禁止資產管理公司提供“不虧損的”保本產品，或承諾有保障的收益。資產管理公司還將被要求把所收管理費的10%作爲風險準備金。

“The new rules are likely to contain financial risks, curb excessive credit growth and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy,” says Mr Shen.

“新規有望遏制金融風險，遏制信貸過度增長，並提高貨幣政策的有效性，”申嵐說。

Asset managers will also be encouraged to invest in priority projects, such as the Belt and Road initiative, a vast infrastructure plan to connect China with other countries in order to boost trade, as well as regional development plans. Financial institutions have been given until June 2019 to comply with the new rules.

資產管理公司還將被鼓勵投資於優先項目，比如“一帶一路”這個旨在聯接中國和其他國家以提振貿易的龐大基建計劃，以及地區開發計劃。金融機構被要求在2019年6月之前滿足新規的要求。

Daniel Celeghin, head of wealth management strategy for the Asia-Pacific region at Casey Quirk, the consultancy, says the new rules could mean a “huge hit” to the revenues of Chinese trust companies, so there is likely to be some resistance during the current consultation period with regulators, which runs until mid-December.

諮詢公司Casey Quirk的亞太區財富管理策略主管Daniel Celeghin表示，新規對中國信託公司的收入可能構成“巨大沖擊”，所以在當前的監管機構徵求意見期（截止12月中旬）可能會遭到一定的抵制。

Beijing also announced this month that China plans to relax or eliminate foreign ownership limits in Chinese financial services groups, including asset managers.

北京方面本月還宣佈，中國打算放寬或取消外資在中國金融服務集團（包括資產管理公司）所持股份的比例限制。

Foreign companies will be allowed to own 100 per cent of a domestic fund management company by 2020.

到2020年，外企將被允許持有中國國內基金管理公司100%的股權。

Stewart Aldcroft, Asia chief executive of CitiTrust, the securities and fund services arm of Citigroup, the US bank, says this change, along with the new regulatory framework, could “completely transform” financial services businesses in China.

花旗集團(Citigroup)旗下證券與基金服務機構CitiTrust的亞洲首席執行官斯圖爾特?奧爾德克羅夫特(Stewart Aldcroft)說，這一變化，加上新的監管框架，可能“完全轉變”中國的金融服務業。

“This is without doubt the development that the major global players have been looking for, to control and own their own businesses in China,” says Mr Aldcroft.

“這無疑是業內的全球主要參與者一直在期盼的發展，即在中國控制並擁有自己的業務，”奧爾德克羅夫特說。

Casey Quirk is forecasting that assets under management in China’s investment industry will grow to around $17tn by 2030, helped by the rising wealth of the middle class and the expansion of workplace retirement saving schemes.

Casey Quirk預測，在中產階層財富增加和工作單位退休儲蓄計劃擴大的推動下，到2030年中國投資行業管理的資產將增至約17萬億美元。

Around half ($8.5tn) of the net new inflows attracted by investment managers globally by 2030 will go to Chinese companies, helping the country to become the world’s second-largest asset management market behind the US.

到2030年，全球投資管理公司吸引的資金淨流入量中，大約一半（8.5萬億美元）將流向中國公司，推動中國成爲世界第二大資產管理市場，僅次於美國。

This growth presents a potentially huge prize for foreign companies. But Mr Celeghin cautions that it remains unclear just how large a role Chinese regulators will allow foreign managers to play.

這種增長爲外資公司提供了潛在巨大的回報。但Celeghin告誡稱，尚不清楚中國監管層將允許境外資產管理公司發揮多大作用。

He notes that the liberalisation of Japan’s investment markets has led to a decline in the share of the fee pool going to domestic managers over the past decade. China will instead look to the example of the US, where league-ranking tables remain dominated by local companies.

他指出，日本對投資市場放開管制後，過去10年裏國內資產管理公司在收費總額中的佔比有所降低。相反，中國將效仿美國——佔據美國管理費排行榜主導地位的仍是國內公司。

“China likes the US model. It wants to see more competition. But it also wants to make sure that its own players win,” says Mr Celeghin.

“中國喜歡美國模式。中國想看到更激烈的競爭，但也想確保本國企業勝出，”Celeghin說。

He adds that even if foreign managers believe they can offer better-quality investment products at lower fees, they will struggle to match domestic Chinese managers’ capacity and willingness to send teams of senior staff to help local distributors to meet client needs.

他接着說，儘管境外資產管理公司認爲它們能以更低管理費提供質量更好的投資產品，但在派出資深員工團隊幫助當地經銷商滿足客戶需求的能力和意願方面，它們仍將難以媲美中國資產管理公司。

Other long-time Beijing watchers remain sceptical about the government’s willingness to encourage greater participation by foreigners in China’s financial industry.

其他長期觀察中國的人士仍對中國政府是否願意鼓勵外資更深參與中國金融業表示懷疑。

“The financial commanding heights will not be ceded to foreigners,” says George Magnus, an associate at Oxford university’s China Centre.

“金融制高點將不會讓給外國公司，”牛津大學(Oxford University)中國中心(China Centre)研究員喬治?馬格納斯(George Magnus)說。