特朗普荒唐的貿易政策給歐盟帶來機會

Donald Trump’s trade policy has been, to date, more sound than fury. The president favours hot rhetoric about pulling out of trade agreements and reducing US trade deficits with whacking big tariffs.

迄今爲止，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的貿易政策都是虛張聲勢。這位總統喜歡放狠話，如揚言要退出衆多貿易協定，以及通過鉅額關稅減少美國的貿易逆差。

But the actions of his administration, with the exception of pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, are comparatively tepid.

但除了退出《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)，相對來說，特朗普政府的行動一直不溫不火。

Instead of tearing up the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, the US has started negotiations to change it. Rather than slapping tariffs on China to punish it for trade-distorting actions, the US has started an investigation into Chinese abuses of intellectual property rights.

美國沒有撕毀與加拿大和墨西哥的《北美自由貿易協定》(NAFTA)，而是啓動了談判去修訂它。美國也沒有對中國加徵關稅以懲罰其扭曲貿易的舉措，而是對中國的侵犯知識產權行爲展開了調查。

The Latest bark was a threat to abrogate the Korea-US (Korus) bilateral trade agreement, which went into effect in 2012. The administration this week has once again stopped short of a bite, walking back from the threat. This is a relief. But it confirms that dealing with the US on trade is about damage limitation rather than positive improvements.

美國最近又揚言要廢除自2012年起生效的《韓美自由貿易協定》(Korus FTA)。特朗普政府本週再次沒有付諸行動，找臺階收回了這一威脅。這讓各方都鬆了口氣。但它證實了一件事：跟美國在貿易上打交道，要着眼於儘可能減低損害，而不是積極改進。

The geopolitical effect of trade deals is often overstated, but killing Korus would be spectacularly bad timing given events in North Korea and the need to show US engagement in the region. Economically, Korean tariffs are much higher than those in the US, so American exporters would be hurt proportionately more.

貿易協定在地緣政治上的影響經常被誇大，但考慮到朝鮮局勢正需要美國展示對該地區的承諾，現在廢除《韓美自由貿易協定》是選擇了一個糟糕透頂的時機。從經濟上看，韓國的關稅比美國高得多，因此美國出口商們蒙受的損失將會重得多。

Symbolically, Washington’s threats to withdraw from international agreements leave the field open to the EU to claim the title of leader of the world trading system.

美國威脅要退出諸多國際協定，意味着將世界貿易體系領導者的頭銜拱手讓與歐盟(EU)。

Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, plans to announce next week that Brussels will seek new bilateral deals, including with Australia and New Zealand. Later this year, the EU will probably agree a deal with Mercosur, the South American customs union that includes Argentina and Brazil.

歐盟委員會(European Commission)主席讓-克洛德?容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)計劃在下週宣佈，歐盟將尋求與相關國家和地區達成新的雙邊協議，包括與澳大利亞和新西蘭。今年晚些時候，歐盟可能會與南方共同市場(Mercosur)達成協議，南方共同市場是南美地區一個包括阿根廷和巴西在內的關稅聯盟。

Making a splash by signing bilateral deals does not necessarily equal anchoring the world trading system. The effect of the Mercosur deal, for example, will probably be moderated by carving out sensitive subjects, including agricultural products such as beef and sugar, from liberalisation.

高調簽署一系列雙邊協議，並不一定等同於穩固了世界貿易體系。例如，與南方共同市場的協議的效用，會因爲將一些敏感產品排除在貿易自由化對象之外而大打折扣，包括像牛肉和糖這樣的農產品。

At the same time as supposedly expanding trade by cutting tariffs, the EU is giving itself more space to restrict it by making it easier to impose anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on imports.

雖然削減關稅理論上應該能夠實現貿易擴大，但歐盟也通過降低對進口商品徵收反傾銷與反補貼稅的難度，爲自己留下了限制貿易的空間。

Still, the overall direction of EU trade policy contrasts sharply with the defensive and destructive attitude taken by the US. The initial reports of renegotiation talks in Nafta are not positive. Rather than updating the agreement to take account of the emergence of new industries since the deal was agreed in 1995, the Trump administration seems obsessed with fighting old battles, namely trying to repatriate more of the auto manufacturing supply chain to within US borders by fiddling about with so-called rules of origin.

不過，歐盟貿易政策的總體方向與美國採取的防禦性和破壞性態度形成了鮮明的對比。有關《北美自由貿易協定》重談的初期報道不容樂觀。特朗普政府沒有將重心放在更新該協議、將1995年協議簽訂以來衆多新行業的出現納入考量，而是似乎執着於在老問題上斤斤計較，即通過擺弄所謂的原產地規則，試圖將汽車製造供應鏈的更多環節轉移回美國本土。

Even if the US achieves its aim, this is more likely to mean car manufacturers ignore the deal altogether and outsource more production outside the Nafta countries, paying tariffs rather than complying with more onerous regulations.

即使美國達到了它的目的，也更有可能意味着汽車製造商們完全不理會這項協定，將生產更多地外包給《北美自由貿易協定》以外的國家，寧可支付關稅，也不服從更爲繁瑣的規定。

The effect of President Trump on global trade remains uncertain, thanks to his eccentric policymaking, but it is unlikely to be positive. The fact that he is prepared to countenance tearing up a deal with Korea at this juncture suggests that his obsession with using trade policy to try to reduce bilateral deficits persists.

特朗普總統不按常理出牌的決策風格使得他對全球貿易的影響尚不明確，但這種影響不太可能是積極的。他準備在這個節骨眼上撕毀與韓國的協定，表明他仍執着於利用貿易政策來減少雙邊貿易逆差。

The rest of the world can only hope that calmer voices in the administration and Congress continue to prevail.

其他國家只能寄希望於，特朗普政府和美國國會中那些更加理智的聲音能夠繼續佔據上風。