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歐洲央行弱化經濟增長提速預期

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Mario Draghi has cautioned that the pace of the eurozone’s recovery may be slowing, as the European Central Bank kept interest rates at record lows.

歐洲央行弱化經濟增長提速預期

歐洲央行把利率維持在創紀錄低位,與此同時,歐洲央行(ECB)行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)警告稱,歐元區的復甦進程可能在放緩。

Meeting in Vienna, the ECB played down hopes that growth in the single currency was gaining momentum and left inflation and growth forecasts largely unchanged despite a strong start to the year.

在維也納開會的歐洲央行弱化了有關歐元區的增長正形成勢頭的期待,並維持通脹和增長預期基本未變,儘管歐元區今年開年表現強勁。

The bank’s governing council also held back from allowing Greek banks to resume access to cheap loans, frustrating Athens’ hopes that it would take such a step this month.

此外,歐洲央行管理委員會並未允許希臘的銀行重新獲得廉價貸款,這挫敗了希臘方面對於歐洲央行將在本月採取這種行動的願望。

“The risks to the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, but the balance of risks has improved,” said Mr Draghi on Thursday, warning that second-quarter growth would “possibly [be] at a lower rate than in the first quarter”.

德拉吉週四表示:“歐元區增長前景仍偏向下行風險,但風險平衡有所好轉。”他警告稱,第二季度增速“可能會低於第一季度”。

The region grew 0.5 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of this year, outpacing the US and the UK and fuelling expectations that the single currency area’s sluggish recovery had reached a turning point.

從2015年第四季度至今年第一季度,歐元區經濟增長0.5%,超過美國和英國,引發外界猜測歐元區的乏力復甦到達了一個轉折點。

But while the ECB edged up its projections for growth and inflation this year to take account of higher oil prices and the strong start to the year, its economists’ forecasts for both variables for 2017 and 2018 were left virtually unchanged — in contrast with more bullish sentiment in the markets.

然而,儘管歐洲央行微幅上調了今年的增長和通脹預期,以計入油價上漲以及今年開年表現強勁的因素,但該行經濟學家對2017年和2018年這兩個變量的預測都幾乎未變,相比之下,市場情緒較爲樂觀。

Mr Draghi added that the bank now expected 1.6 per cent growth this year, compared with its March estimate of 1.4 per cent growth.

德拉吉補充稱,歐洲央行現在預計今年歐元區增速將達到1.6%,而其在3月的預測爲增長1.4%。

Mr Draghi’s tone, and his staff’s economic forecasts, suggest the ECB remains unconvinced that the eurozone’s recovery has switched to a higher gear.

德拉吉的言論以及歐洲央行工作人員的經濟預測似乎表明,歐洲央行仍不相信歐元區復甦已進入加速階段。