日本第二季經濟增長遜於預期

Japan's economy grew at an annualised 1.4 per cent in the second quarter against analysts' expectations of a 2.3 per cent rise, as weak exports and softer consumer spending offset strong public investment in the tsunami-stricken region of Tohoku.

日本經濟第二季度經年化的增速爲1.4%，低於分析師預測的2.3%。出口和消費者支出轉弱，抵消了受海嘯影響的東北地區公共投資的強勁增長。

The data represented a sharp drop from the first quarter, in which growth was an annualised 5.5 per cent as Japanese consumers shook off their post-tsunami restraint.

第二季度數據較第一季度出現了顯著下滑，日本第一季度經年化的經濟增長率爲5.5%，消費者結束了海嘯後的剋制。

Analysts said the world's third-largest economy had struggled to adjust to a strengthening yen and faltering growth in key export partners such as China and the EU. During the quarter the yen gained 4 per cent against the US dollar. A surplus of imports over exports trimmed 0.1 percentage points from overall output.

分析師表示，全球第三大經濟體近期在艱難適應日圓升值以及中國和歐盟等主要出口夥伴經濟增長放緩。第二季度日圓兌美元匯率升值4%。進口大於出口的貿易逆差導致日本國內總產出下降0.1百分點。

"The outlook for external demand is definitely deteriorating," said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorganin Tokyo, noting "nearly all trade and manufacturing activity data for July are downbeat in [Japan's] Asian neighbours".

摩根大通(JPMorgan)駐東京的高級經濟學家正道安達(Masamichi Adachi)表示："外部需求前景無疑趨於惡化，對於日本在亞洲的鄰國而言，7月份幾乎所有貿易和製造活動相關數據都表現悲觀。"

Motohisa Furukawa, economy minister, warned yesterday the government "needs to be alert to further deterioration in overseas economies".

日本經濟財政大臣古川元久(Motohisa Furukawa)昨日警告稱，政府"需對海外經濟形勢進一步惡化保持警惕"。

As expected, the strongest line yesterday's preliminary gross domestic product figures came from public investment, which rose 1.7 per cent from the first quarter. Spending was led by clean-up and decontamination in Fukushima, Miyagi and Iwate, the three prefectures hit hardest by the earthquake and tsunami last year.

符合市場預期的是，在昨日公佈的日本國內生產總值(GDP)初步數據中，公共投資領域增長最爲強勁，較第一季度環比上升1.7%。公共支出主要與福島縣、宮城縣以及巖手縣的清理和淨化活動有關，這三個縣在去年的地震和海嘯中受創最重。

Analysts said this suggested growth may fall further in the second half of this year. An official from the disaster restoration development division in Miyagi's prefectural government told the Financial Times that he was concerned about an economic downturn "after the end of reconstruction works".

分析師指出，今年下半年日本經濟增速可能進一步下滑。宮城縣政府一位負責災後重建工作的官員向英國《金融時報》表示，他對重建工作結束後可能出現的經濟下行走勢感到擔憂。

Japan's dependence on state spending to fuel growth is also worrying in the context of its growing debt burden, analysts said. The International Monetary Fund warned this month that government debt – now exceeding Y1,000tn ($12.8tn) including guarantees – leaves Japan exposed to a rise in interest rates caused by lost confidence in fiscal sustainability.

分析師指出，日本依賴政府支出刺激經濟增長引人擔憂的另一個原因，是日本政府的債務負擔日益加重。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)本月警告稱，日本政府債務——目前包括擔保在內的債務規模現已超過1000萬億日圓(合12.8萬億美元)——使其面臨市場對該國財政可持續性失去信心可能導致的利率上升風險。

David Rea, Japan economist at Capital Economicsin London, said: "As data continue to disappoint, the BoJ can't keep maintaining the line that the recovery has slowed. Sooner or later they may have to recognise that things are going into reverse."

倫敦凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)研究日本的經濟學家大衛•雷(David Rea)表示："由於經濟數據仍然令人失望，日本央行無法繼續堅稱日本復甦有所放緩。他們早晚可能被迫承認，情況正出現逆轉。"