亞開行下調亞洲今年經濟增長預期

The Chinese economy will grow less 7 per cent this year, the Asian Development Bank predicted on Tuesday, as it warned of widening fallout from economic challenges in China and India.

亞洲開發銀行(ADB)週二預測，中國今年的經濟增速將低於7%，該行對中國和印度經濟挑戰日益擴大的影響提出警告。

In revisions to its annual Asian Development Outlook, published in March, the ADB lowered its growth forecast for China to 6.8 per cent from 7.2 per cent. The Chinese government has targeted economic growth of “about 7 per cent” in 2015.

亞開行對今年3月公佈的年度《亞洲發展展望》(Asian Development Outlook)進行了修訂，將中國的經濟增長預期從7.2%下調至6.8%。中國政府設定的今年經濟增長目標爲“7%左右”。

The US and Japan-led bank also revised down its expectations for economic growth in India to 7.4 per cent from 7.8 per cent, citing “external demand weakness and [a] slower-than-expected pace of enacting key reforms”.

由美國和日本主導的亞開行還將印度的經濟增長預期從7.8%下調至7.4%，指出原因在於“外部需求疲弱和實施重要改革的速度慢於預期”。

As a result of the economic challenges confronting Asia’s largest and third-largest economies, the ADB said economic growth for the entire region this year would be 5.8 per cent, compared with its March forecast of 6.3 per cent.

亞開行表示，由於亞洲最大和第三大經濟體遭遇經濟挑戰，亞洲今年的經濟增速將爲5.8%，3月的預測爲6.3%。

In light of the regional slowdown and a strengthening dollar, Shang-Jin Wei, chief economist, warned that some countries needed to guard against capital flight and overseas borrowing. According to the ADB, in the first quarter of the year net capital outflows from developing economies exceeded $125bn.

鑑於亞洲經濟放緩和美元走強，亞開行首席經濟學家魏尚進(Shang-Jin Wei)警告稱，一些國家需要防範資本抽逃和海外借貸。根據亞開行的數據，今年第一季度，發展中經濟體的淨資本流出超過1250億美元。

Over the past year, China’s foreign exchange reserves have declined by $400bn.

過去一年，中國的外匯儲備已縮減4000億美元。

“In order to be resilient to international interest rate fluctuations and other financial shocks, it is important to implement macroprudential regulations that, for some countries, may entail some capital flow management such as limiting reliance on foreign currency borrowing.”

“要抵禦國際利率波動和其他金融衝擊，實施宏觀審慎的監管非常重要，對於一些國家而言，這可能包括資金流管理，例如限制對外幣借款的依賴。”

According to the ADB, more than 65 per cent of corporate debt in Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Indonesia is denominated in foreign currencies.

根據亞開行的數據，在越南、斯里蘭卡和印尼的企業債券中，超過65%以外幣計價。

The bank added that Southeast Asia was “bearing the brunt of the slowdown in China” as it lowered its 2015 growth forecast for the region to 4.4 per cent from 4.9 per cent.

亞開行補充稱，東南亞受到“中國經濟放緩的打擊”，亞開行將該地區今年的增速預期從4.9%下調至4.4%。