中國央行與做空者的博弈 Renminbi bears rethink their positions

If a speculator-loathing central bank were planning a victory celebration, it could do worse than make its currency free to borrow offshore, while pushing its exchange rate to its strongest this year.

如果一家厭惡投機者的央行計劃慶祝一下勝利，以下這種做法可能還不是最狠的：讓本幣在離岸市場可以免費借入，同時把本幣匯率推高至今年以來最高水平。

That, in effect was what happened to the renminbi last week, whether or not the People’s Bank of China intended it. The end of a quarter that began with hedge funds and others making big bets against the Chinese currency finished with short-term renminbi borrowing rates in Hong Kong turning negative for a day — the first such event — and the onshore rate being fixed at its strongest rate since mid-December.

實際上，這正是上週發生在人民幣身上的事情，無論中國央行(PBoC)是否有意爲之。上季度開始時，對衝基金等機構大舉押注人民幣下跌，而在上季度最後一天，香港離岸人民幣隔夜拆借利率變爲負值（有記錄以來首次），在岸人民幣兌美元匯率則設定在自去年12月中旬以來的最高水平。

Between the height of renminbi drama in early January, when China bears felt vindicated by a sharp weakening in the offshore rate, and now investors have faced a formidable adversary in the form of the PBoC. The central bank has intervened in the onshore and offshore currency markets, introduced new bank capital requirements and drawn heavily on its reserves.

在1月初人民幣行情最戲劇化之際，離岸人民幣匯率大跌曾令做空中國者確信自己是正確的。從那時到現在這段時間裏，投資者們一直面對着中國央行這個可怕的對手。中國央行對在岸和離岸人民幣市場進行了干預，出臺了新的銀行存款準備金要求，並動用了大量外匯儲備。

The result has been a deep rethink among investors and a reduction in the size of their positions. The question now, particularly for hedge funds licking their wounds, is whether a bearish view on China’s economy and one that entails a much weaker currency will prevail in the coming months or not.

結果導致投資者進行深深的反思，並降低了自己的頭寸。現在的問題、尤其是正舔傷口的對衝基金面臨的問題，是看空中國經濟、並押注人民幣大幅貶值的觀點，在未來幾個月會不會取勝。

“A lot of people still believe the currency has to adjust lower — and we are of that view — but the question now is how that will happen,” says Paul Mackel, head of emerging markets currency research at HSBC. “It probably won’t happen as violently as people thought before.”

“很多人仍相信，人民幣會被迫向下調整——我們也這樣認爲——但現在的問題在於，人民幣將如何向下調整，”匯豐銀行(HSBC)新興市場外匯研究主管保羅•麥凱爾(Paul Mackel)表示，“人民幣貶值很可能不會像人們之前以爲的那樣劇烈。”

The troublesome offshore market, where international investors express views, has been subdued for one. Intervention as well as new reserve requirements have drained liquidity.

理由之一是，棘手的離岸市場——這裏是國際投資者表達觀點的地方——已被馴服。干預和新出臺的離岸人民幣存款準備金要求收緊了流動性。

“Since August 2015 [when China conducted a one-off devaluation] the offshore market has imposed significant challenges to the PBoC’s efforts to stabilise the renminbi,” says Xiangrong Yu, a strategist at CICC. “In particular, the wide spreads invited massive cross-border arbitrage and worsened market expectations amid the depreciation pressure.”

“自2015年8月（當時中國實施了人民幣一次性貶值）以來，離岸市場一直對中國央行穩定人民幣的努力構成巨大的挑戰，”中金公司(CICC)策略師餘向榮說，“尤其是，在岸和離岸匯率之間的巨大價差引發大規模的跨境套利活動，在人民幣遭遇貶值壓力之際惡化了市場預期。”

Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong, the centre of the offshore market, had dropped to Rmb804bn ($124bn) by the end of February — their lowest in more than two years, and down a fifth from their peak in late 2014.

在作爲離岸人民幣中心的香港，到今年2月底人民幣存款已降至8040億元人民幣（約合1240億美元），爲兩年多以來的最低水平，較2014年末的峯值下降了五分之一。

Strategists say reserve requirements probably caused overnight interbank borrowing costs for renminbi in Hong Kong to turn negative last week. The PBoC assesses banks on a quarterly basis for reserve requirements, which were applied to offshore deposits for the first time in January, meaning banks last Thursday in theory had an interest in making deposits smaller — even if in practice that means paying borrowers to take funds. The result is a market that is more similar to its onshore cousin.

策略師們表示，上週香港人民幣隔夜銀行間拆借利率變爲負值的原因，很可能在於存款準備金要求。中國央行今年1月首次對離岸人民幣存款要求存款準備金，按季度對商業銀行進行考覈，這意味着，理論上，銀行在上週四有減少存款的動機——即便實際上那意味着要向資金拆入方付錢。結果是，離岸人民幣市場變得更像在岸人民幣市場了。

“The renminbi is controlled and it will be controlled. It’s not a free market; the PBoC is the biggest player and we all know that,” says one senior banker at a mainland institution, who does not expect more dramatic moves this year.

“人民幣受到管控，並將繼續受到管控。這不是一個自由市場；中國央行是最大的玩家，我們都知道這一點，”中國內地一家機構的資深銀行家表示。他預計，今年將不會出現更劇烈的變動。

According to a survey by Reuters of non-deliverable forward positions — one way short bets are expressed — investors are still slightly short renminbi, but those positions are less than a quarter of their January peaks. That tallies with anecdotal reports from bank trading desks and hedge fund brokers.

根據路透社(Reuters)對無本金交割遠期(NDF)頭寸——這是看空押注的一條途徑——的調查，投資者仍在小規模做空人民幣，但那些頭寸已不足1月峯值的四分之一。這符合銀行交易部門和對衝基金經紀商傳出的說法。

One strategy gaining traction is to focus more on the renminbi’s moves against currencies other than the dollar. Measured against the PBoC’s own basket of currencies and against which it tracks the renminbi, the Chinese currency has fallen 1.6 per cent in a month.

一項吸引力正在增強的策略，是把重心更多地放在人民幣對美元以外其他貨幣的行情上。以中國央行自己的一籃子貨幣（人民幣盯住的對象）來衡量，人民幣在一個月裏貶值了1.6%。

The Federal Reserve could also help the renminbi bears. While dovish comments by Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, in the past week helped the renminbi higher as the US dollar sank, analysts warn against reading the moves as a new trend.

美聯儲(Fed)可能也會幫助看空人民幣者。儘管過去一週裏，美聯儲主席珍妮特•耶倫(Janet Yellen)的鴿派言論幫助推動人民幣匯率隨着美元下跌而走高，但分析師們警告市場不要把這些行情看成是新趨勢。

“You still have to think that the Fed is going to hike at some point and the PBoC will be easing policy — and that rate differential will weigh on the renminbi. This is a tale of two currencies, not just China,” Mr Mackel says.

“你仍然必須認爲，美聯儲將在某個時點加息，而中國央行將放寬貨幣政策——而兩國的利率差異將令人民幣承壓。這是關乎兩國貨幣的故事，並非只關乎中國一國，”麥凱爾說。