各國央行負利率問題 Why so many policymakers are pushing negative rates

Central banks are dragging their benchmark borrowing costs deeper into negative territory, punishing financials and dragging more than $6tn of top tier government debt below a yield of zero per cent.

各國央行正進一步拖動其基準貸款利率深入負值領域，令金融業受到拖累，還讓信用級別最高的逾6萬億美元的政府債務陷入負收益率。

What are they doing?

它們在幹麼？

It is officially known as the negative interest rate policy or Nirp, and it is eclipsing a zero policy, or Zirp.

該舉措的正式名稱爲負利率政策(Nirp)，它讓零利率政策(Zirp)相形見絀。

Switzerland and Denmark have led the charge, while last Thursday Sweden’s Riksbank upped the ante by cutting its main repo rate to minus 0.5 per cent.

打頭陣的是瑞士和丹麥，上週四瑞典央行(Riksbank)又加大力度，將指標回購利率調降至負0.5%。

The Bank of Japan’s recent entry into the Nirp camp with minus 0.1 per cent for some reserves has fanned expectations that it has just started a foray below zero.

日本央行(BoJ)近期加入負利率陣營，將部分準備金利率降低到負0.1%，引發預期認爲日本央行只是剛剛啓動負利率政策。

In the coming months the European Central Bank’s deposit rate is expected to head lower from its current minus 0.3 per cent.

未來幾個月歐洲央行(European Central Bank)的存款利率預計會從目前負0.3%的水平繼續下調。

Why are they doing it?

它們爲什麼這樣做？

Slumbering inflation pressures and the risk of deflation are worries for policymakers, who want to jump-start growth and help consumers, companies and governments pay down their debt.

沉睡的通脹壓力和通縮風險令政策制定者感到擔憂，他們想要啓動經濟增長，幫助消費者、企業和政府償還各自的債務。

After the financial crisis global interest rates fell and central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, resorted to quantitative easing, buying massive amounts of government debt.

金融危機後全球利率下降，各國央行——尤其是美聯儲(Fed)和英國央行(Bank of England)——祭出量化寬鬆政策，大量買入政府債券。

For all that, inflation remains below targets, a trend that is being reinforced by the collapse in commodity prices and concerns over a slowing global economy.

儘管如此，通脹仍低於目標水平，而大宗商品價格崩潰和對全球經濟放緩的擔憂正在強化這一趨勢。

Can rates go much lower?

利率還能更低嗎？

In theory there is no limit. But the task of the BoJ and the ECB is being complicated by stronger currencies.

理論上是沒有限制的。但日本央行和歐洲央行的任務正因爲本幣走強而變得複雜化。

Negative rates are viewed as one of the most effective ways to weaken a currency and thus boost inflation expectations, but the opposite is happening for both the euro and the yen.

負利率被視爲讓貨幣貶值、從而拉動通脹預期的最有效途徑之一，但歐元和日元的情況卻截然相反。

After a torrid start to the year led by miners and commodity producers, global equities are being hammered with financials bearing the brunt of selling.

在礦企和大宗商品生產企業今年開局不順利之後，全球股市遭遇拋售，金融類股票首當其衝。

What are the consequences?

負利率會有什麼後果？

A negative rate environment is bad news for bank profits. And in Japan, Europe and the US, share and bond prices for banks have slumped. This runs counter to what Nirp is supposed to achieve.

對於銀行利潤來說，負利率環境是個壞消息。而且在日本、歐洲和美國，銀行的股票和債券價格已經出現下滑，與負利率理應實現的目標背道而馳。

Negative deposit rates are seen as complementing QE by forcing banks to seek more risky lending opportunities and assets to compensate for losses on their interest rate margin.

負存款利率被視作量化寬鬆的補充，通過迫使銀行尋求風險更高的放貸機會和資產，來彌補它們在息差上的損失。

This “portfolio rebalancing effect” should, in theory, spur growth by providing funds to credit-starved parts of the economy and reduce the cost of borrowing for riskier sovereigns and companies.

理論上，這種“投資組合再平衡效應”應該能刺激經濟增長，向信貸匱乏的經濟部門輸送資金，並降低風險較高的主權國家和企業的借款成本。

So where are investors putting their money?

那麼投資者把他們的錢都投向了哪裏？

About $6tn of government debt sold by Japan and countries in Europe yields below zero. Roughly two-thirds of Japanese government bonds are negative yielding, while in Germany the 10-year Bund yield is just 0.16 per cent.

日本和歐洲各國出售的政府債務中，有6萬億美元左右收益率爲負。大約三分之二的日本政府債券都是負收益，德國10年期國債收益率僅爲0.16%。

Investors are selling equities and corporate bonds and buying sovereign debt that still has a positive yield. This week there have been dramatic rallies in US and UK bond prices, pushing their 10-year yields below 1.60 per cent and 1.3 per cent respectively.

投資者正在拋售股票和企業債券，買入依然處於正收益的主權債務。本週美國和英國債券價格出現急劇反彈，致使兩國的10年期國債收益率分別跌破1.6%和1.3%。

Why would you buy a negative-yielding bond?

你爲什麼會買負收益率的債券？

Call it the “greater fool” theory of investing.

這可以稱作投資“博傻”理論。

Buying negative-yielding bonds entails a guaranteed loss if held to maturity. But a trader can still make a profit by selling at a higher price so long as someone else thinks central banks will keep pushing yields further below zero.

購買負收益率債券意味着板上釘釘的賠本——如果持有至到期的話。但只要別人認爲央行將繼續推動收益率進一步低於零，交易員仍可通過以更高價格售出而獲利。