外媒:受經濟影響,中國漲薪潮已經開始消退
Rapid wage gains in China that began after the 2009 global financial crisis have begun to fade as the economy slows, and that could create problems for officials trying to boost domestic consumption.
中國的漲薪潮開始於2009年全球性金融危機之後，而隨着中國經濟增速的放緩，漲薪潮也開始消退，這將給試圖提升國內消費的中國政府帶來一些問題。Income increases for migrant workers will fall below 7 percent this year, down from a 7.2 percent rise in 2015, according to nine of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News this month. The findings follow an announcement by Guangdong province, China's biggest exporter and one of the biggest destinations for rural job seekers, that it will freeze minimum wages for two years.
據彭博新聞社網站3月23日報道，彭博新聞社本月對12位經濟學家進行了調查，其中9位經濟學家認爲，外出務工人員的收入增幅今年可能低於7%，比2015年7.2%的增幅有所下降。報道稱，在此之前，中國出口大省、外出務工人員主要就業目的地廣東省宣佈，將凍結最低工資標準兩年。A slower rise in labor costs could make Chinese companies more competitive while also helping employers weather structural reforms.
報道認爲，人力成本增幅減緩可能使中國公司更具競爭力，同時幫助用人單位適應結構性改革。中國的上屆政府曾經通過提升工資，來擴大國內需求。
"China's fairly pragmatic policy makers have recognized the limits of things like minimum wage increases," said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong. "You cannot expect wage growth to continue if business conditions and profit developments are weaker."
牛津經濟諮詢社駐香港的首席亞洲經濟學家高路易說：“中國相當務實的決策者已經意識到提高最低工資標準等做法的侷限性。如果商業環境和盈利狀況變得更加疲弱，你就不可能期待工資繼續保持強勁增長。”Consumers also won't spend as freely, according to the survey. Six economists said they see Average disposable income rising 6.5 to 6.9 percent this year, compared with a 7.4 percent increase in 2015. Four forecast a rise of 7 percent to 7.4 percent.
此次調查顯示，消費者不會像以前那樣自由支出。6位經濟學家說，他們認爲平均可支配收入今年的增幅爲6.5%至6.9%，而2015年的增幅爲7.4%。4位經濟學家預測，平均可支配收入的增幅爲7%至7.4%。Jobs and income were among the top agenda items for the Chinese congress meeting earlier this month in Beijing and again this week on the southern island of Hainan, where policy makers are gathering for their annual Boao Forum. Premier Li Keqiang set a target for creating 10 million jobs this year, the same goal as the last two years.
本月早些時候在北京舉行的中國全國人民代表大會上，就業和收入問題被列入首要議程，在本週開幕的博鰲亞洲論壇上亦是如此。中國製定了今年新增1000萬個就業機會的目標，這與前兩年的目標一致。Even with smaller pay rises for workers, economists still forecast an increase in joblessness in China this year. The urban unemployment rate will rise to 5.3 percent to 5.5 percent in 2016, up from about 5.1 percent last year, seven out of 12 economists said in a Bloomberg survey.
報道稱，即使勞動者工資上漲幅度減小，經濟學家仍預測中國今年的失業率將上升。在接受彭博新聞社調查的12位經濟學家中有7位表示，2016年城鎮失業率將達到5.3%至5.5%，比去年的5.1%有所上升。The projected weakening of the job market is notable because China has a shrinking labor force, something that otherwise would typically lead to companies having to pay more to attract the workers they need.
經濟學家預測就業市場將日益疲軟，這值得關注，因爲中國的勞動人口正日益萎縮，這通常會導致公司必須支付更多薪酬，以吸引其所需的勞動者。Wage growth has been held down by salary freezes, most recently in Guangdong, China's most populous province with 107 million people and a $1.1 trillion economy. The provincial government said last month it will freeze the minimum wage for two years to help companies cut labor costs.
最近在廣東，這個擁有1.07億居民的人口大省以及1.1億經濟總量的經濟大省，工資增長已被凍結。廣東省政府上月表示，將凍結最低工資標準兩年，以幫助企業降低人力成本。Seven economists said migrant worker wage growth will decelerate to 6.5 to 6.9 percent this year, while two project that it will fall below 6.5 percent.
7位經濟學家表示，外出務工人員工資增幅今年將降到6.5%至6.9%，還有兩位經濟學家預測將降至6.5%以下。Average monthly wages for China's 277 million migrant workers rose 7.4 percent last year to 3,072 yuan, slower than the 9.8 percent gain in 2014 and 13.9 percent in 2013, National Bureau of Statistics data show. The most recent data for wages for all Chinese workers show they grew 9.5 percent in 2014, the slowest pace since at least 2000.
國家統計局數據顯示，去年，中國2.77億外出務工人員的月均工資增長了7.2%，至3072元，增速低於2014年的9.8%和2013年的13.9%。而最新數據顯示，所有城鎮就業人員2014年工資增速爲9.5%，是自2000年以來增速最慢的一年。
