日本經濟萎縮 安倍經濟學再受打擊
Japan’s economy shrank at an annualised rate of 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2015 in a further blow to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Abenomics stimulus.
日本經濟在2015年第四季度按年率計算收縮1.4%，這是對首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)及其“安倍經濟學”刺激措施的又一個打擊。
Economists had forecast a fall of 1.2 per cent but the figure came in worse than expected because of a sharp decline in consumption.
此前經濟學家們預計收縮1.2%，但由於消費急劇下降，實際數據遜於預期。
The data suggest Japan’s economy is still plagued by the weakness of domestic demand as it enters a fourth year of record monetary stimulus, with wages not rising fast enough to persuade consumers to spend.
該數據表明，進入創紀錄貨幣刺激的第四個年頭之際，日本經濟仍受到內需疲弱的困擾，薪資增速不足以鼓勵消費者支出。
There is no sign of a downward spiral in the economy but with the yen rising to trade at Y113.8 to the dollar in recent weeks, the figures put pressure on the Bank of Japan for even more monetary stimulus to encourage a strong round of wage rises this spring. Investors appear to expect more stimulus: the stock market rallied sharply after heavy falls last week, with the Nikkei 225 closing 7.16 per cent higher for one of its biggest one-day gains on record.
日本經濟沒有螺旋式下降的跡象，但隨着最近幾週日元匯率升至113.8日元兌1美元的水平，這些數據給日本央行(BOJ)帶來壓力，要求其出臺更多貨幣刺激措施，鼓勵今年春季出現一輪強勁的加薪。投資者似乎預計有更多的刺激措施：日本股市繼上週暴跌之後大幅反彈，日經225指數(Nikkei 225)收盤上漲7.16%，創下有記錄以來最大單日漲幅之一。
Yoshihide Suga, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, blamed an exceptionally warm winter for the weakness of consumption. “The economic fundamentals are good,” he said. “We expect a steady recovery in business conditions.”
日本內閣官房長官菅義偉(Yoshihide Suga)將消費疲弱歸咎於異常暖和的冬天。他說：“經濟基本面還不錯，我們預計商業狀況穩步復甦。”
But Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at IHS Global Insight in Tokyo, said spending on cars and other durables was sluggish as well. “The bottom line is weak wage growth,” she said, arguing that consumers were saving to prepare for an anticipated rise in consumption tax next year. Ms Taguchi forecast growth would turn positive in the next quarter as the weather effect faded but would stay modest for most of the year.
但環球通視(IHS Global Insight)駐東京首席經濟學家田口晴久(Harumi Taguchi)指出，在汽車和其他耐用品上的支出也很低迷。她表示，“關鍵問題是薪資增長疲弱。”她提出，消費者節省支出是爲明年預期中的消費稅上調做準備。田口晴久預計，隨着天氣影響減弱，增長將在下一季度轉爲正數，但將在今年大部分時間裏維持溫和增長。
In a sign of how badly Abenomics has struggled, growth for the full year of 2015 was 0.4 per cent, following a year of zero growth in 2014. That is roughly in line with Japan’s long-run growth potential, suggesting little progress towards using up spare capacity in the economy, essential to driving inflation upwards.
在2014年零增長之後，日本經濟在2015年全年增長0.4%，這表明安倍經濟學多麼岌岌可危。這大致符合日本長期增長潛力，似乎表明在充分利用經濟閒置產能（這對推高通脹不可或缺）方面進展甚微。
