受中國經濟惡化影響 國際油價創12年來新低

The continuing collapse in commodity prices pushed oil futures to new lows Monday, and analysts predicted that the slide was far from over.

週一，大宗商品價格的持續下跌致使原油期貨降至新低。分析人士預測，這種下降趨勢還遠遠沒有結束。

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in 12 years; futures of West Texas intermediate crude closed at $31.41 a barrel, down 5.3 percent. Oil futures, which lost 30 percent last year, have declined every day of the year so far. Brent oil, the main international benchmark, lost 6.5 percent and closed at $31.36 a barrel.

石油價格跌至12年來的最低水平，西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)期貨報收每桶31.41美元，下挫了5.3%。原油期貨去年下跌30%，今年到目前爲止每天都在下降。主要國際基準布倫特原油(Brent Crude)下滑6.5%，報收每桶31.36美元。

Last year brought a broad-based reassessment in commodities, as the global economy slowed and demand from emerging markets like China, India and Brazil waned. The slump in oil prices deepened last week on renewed concerns about the health of China's economy, which led to a rout in global markets.

去年，全球經濟放緩，中國、印度和巴西等新興市場的需求減少，大宗商品價格隨之廣泛受到重新評估。上週，由於中國經濟狀況再次引發擔憂，全球市場下挫，油價下行的趨勢進一步加劇。

The drop in commodities is being felt throughout the energy sector and beyond. Saudi Arabia, for instance, said last week that it was considering selling shares in its state-run oil company, Aramco. Arch Coal, one of the biggest coal producers in the United States, said Monday that it had filed for bankruptcy protection to cut its debt.

能源及其他領域感受到了大宗商品價格的下跌。例如，沙特阿拉伯在上週表示，正在考慮出售持有的國有油企沙特阿美公司(Saudi Aramco)的股票。美國煤炭巨頭阿奇煤炭公司(Arch Coal)在週一表示，公司已申請破產保護，以削減債務。

Russia's main stock indexes also plummeted Monday in their first day of trading after a lengthy winter holiday, as falling oil prices also cast a pall over the country's energy-dependent economy. Oil and other commodities like natural gas and steel, which make up the bulk of Russia's exports, have fallen sharply on fears of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

油價下降也給依賴能源的俄羅斯經濟蒙上陰影，在本週一，也就是經過漫長冬季假期後的第一個交易日，俄羅斯主要股指遭到重挫。中國經濟放緩引發的擔憂導致石油及天然氣、鋼鐵等俄羅斯主要的出口商品的價格大幅下降。

“Every signal that the market is getting now suggest that we are going to continue to have an oil glut for some time to come,” said Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “Iran is about to re-enter the market, demand numbers and economic indicators look relatively weak, U.S. supply is holding up in a low-price environment much better than people thought, and global inventories are growing.”

“市場目前得到的所有信號都說明，在未來一段時間，石油供應會繼續過剩，”哥倫比亞大學全球能源政策中心(Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University)主任賈森·博爾多夫(Jason Bordoff)說。“伊朗正準備重新進入石油市場，而需求數據和經濟指標看起來相對疲軟，美國石油供應在低價環境中的表現比人們的預想好得多，全球庫存量在不斷增加。”

In that situation, he said, even geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which would have generally spooked energy markets, have not had an impact on the market's perception of risk. In fact, the sharp increase in tensions between the two regional powers makes it less likely they will agree to stabilize oil markets within their membership in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

他表示，在這種情況下，沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之間的地緣政治衝突並沒有影響市場對風險的感知。這類衝突本來通常會令能源市場緊張。實際上，這兩個地區大國之間的矛盾急劇升級，反而使得它們更不可能在石油輸出國組織(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)內部就穩定石油市場達成一致。

“In that world, there is almost every indication that you want to be bearish,” Bordoff said.

博爾多夫表示，“在那個世界中，幾乎每個跡象都表明你應該看跌。”

Most analysts expect more declines before prices recover. Goldman Sachs, which had predicted that oil might reach $200 a barrel during a “superspike” before the 2008 financial crisis, forecast last year that prices might drop as low as $20 a barrel in the current downward cycle.

大多數分析人士認爲在反彈之前還會進一步下跌。高盛(Goldman Sachs)曾在2008年金融危機前預測，油價可能會“暴漲”到每桶200美元。而它在去年預計，油價在目前的下行週期內會跌至每桶20美元。

Morgan Stanley also argued Monday that $20 oil was possible if the United States dollar made rapid gains. Analysts at Barclays cut their outlook for oil and copper prices. They still expect oil to rebound sometime in the second half of the year, but set an average price of $37 a barrel in 2016, down from previous forecasts of $56 to $60.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在週一也提出，如果美元迅速升值，油價達到每桶20美元是可能的。巴克萊銀行(Barclays)的分析員下調了對油價與銅價的預估。他們仍然認爲油價會在今年下半年的某個時候出現反彈，但把2016年油價的平均水平設爲每桶37美元，低於之前預測的56至60美元。

“Recent price declines for major commodities are now greater than in any crisis of the past 30 years and speculative positioning much more negative than it was even in the depths of the financial crisis,” according to a research note by Barclays. “That suggests that although the price outlook is weaker than it was previously, the road ahead could be a very bumpy one.”

“主要大宗商品價格近期的降幅比過去30年經歷的任何危機期間的降幅都要大，投機性頭寸甚至比金融危機最嚴重的時期更消極，”巴克萊的研究報告稱。“這說明雖然價格預估要低於之前，但前方的道路會很坎坷。”

At the same time, the drop in oil is pushing down gasoline prices. The average retail price fell to $1.96 a gallon, according to AAA, down from $2.14 a gallon a year ago.

與此同時，石油價格的下跌也導致汽油價格下降。根據美國汽車協會(AAA)公佈的數據，汽油的平均零售價從一年前的每加侖2.14美元跌至日前的1.96美元。

Separately, coal mining companies have been struggling as demand for coal declines. The drop in energy prices and stricter environmental regulations have made natural gas a much more attractive competitor to coal in the United States.

另外，隨着煤炭需求的減少，採煤公司一直在苦苦掙扎。在美國，能源價格的下降及環境監管的加強使得天然氣的吸引力大幅增強，成爲煤炭的有力競爭對手。

“With oil prices collapsing, renewables on the rise and coal companies going bankrupt, we are at a key inflection point in the energy transition,” said Michael E, Webber, deputy director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. “Inflection points produce a lot of uncertainty and volatility for investors.”

“隨着油價崩潰、可再生能源愈發受歡迎、煤炭公司破產，我們正處於能源轉型的關鍵轉折點，”德克薩斯大學奧斯汀分校能源研究所(Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin)副主任邁克爾·E·韋伯(Michael E. Webber)說。“轉折點會給投資者帶來很多不確定性和波動性。”