跟隨李嘉誠投資西方 Asian tycoons seek opportunities in western markets

Asia’s tycoons are wrestling with two threats to the continued wealth and wellbeing of their family businesses, say bankers in Hong Kong and Singapore, the continent’s financial hubs.

亞洲兩大金融中心香港和新加坡的銀行家們表示，亞洲企業大亨們正在竭力應對影響他們家族企業財富和福祉持續增長的兩大威脅。

The first is how to diversify away from the stuttering Chinese economy, but the second is more fundamental: how to cope with the “enemy within”, in the shape of siblings scrapping to take over their parents’ hard-built enterprises.

第一個問題是如何多元化投資，減少對步履不穩的中國經濟的敞口。第二個問題則更爲根本：如何應對“內患”，即家族成員爭搶父輩辛苦創建的企業所構成的潛在威脅。

The way in which leading businesses in Hong Kong are dealing with these challenges has transfixed wealth managers across the region. Li Ka-shing, one of Asia’s richest investors, has continued to buy foreign assets while restructuring his interests to ease Succession planning, and the dust is beginning to settle after a family power struggle for the Sun Hung Kai Properties empire, owned by the Kwok clan.

香港各大企業應對這些挑戰的方式，簡直讓亞洲財富管理行業的人士目瞪口呆。亞洲最富裕的投資者之一李嘉誠不斷收購外國資產，同時對名下產業進行重組以平穩推進接班規劃，而郭氏家族旗下的新鴻基地產(Sun Hung Kai Properties)帝國在經過一場家族權力爭鬥之後，繼承問題開始塵埃落定。

“What keeps these patriarchs awake at night is succession to the next generation,” says Kevin Herbert HSBC’s co-head for private banking in north Asia, speaking from his 13th-floor office in the bank’s Norman Foster-designed building. “Our clients have multiple assets in multiple jurisdictions, so structuring this wealth has become just as important as development and management of assets.”

匯豐(HSBC)北亞私人銀行業務聯席主管凱文•赫伯特(Kevin Herbert)在其位於匯豐大樓的13層辦公室裏表示：“讓這些家族企業的家長們夜不成寐的是下一代的繼承問題。我們的客戶在不同的司法管轄地有許多資產，因此規劃這種財富變得和資產的開發及管理同樣重要。”匯豐大樓由諾曼•福斯特(Norman Foster)設計。

Despite their natural affinity for local initial public offerings and investment deals, Asian clients have “woken up to the opportunity” offered by the developed markets of the US, Europe and Australia, he says.

他說，儘管亞洲客戶天然青睞本地的IPO及投資交易，但他們已經意識到美國、歐洲和澳大利亞這些發達市場所能提供的“機遇”。

“Li Ka-shing may be selling assets in China, but he still holds a tremendous number of assets there,” Mark Mobius, chairman of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group, recently told a dinner gathering of private banking heads in Singapore’s Fullerton Hotel.

鄧普頓新興市場集團(Templeton Emerging Markets Group)董事長麥樸思(Mark Mobius)最近在新加坡浮爾頓酒店(Fullerton Hotel)的私人銀行業高管晚宴上表示：“李嘉誠或許在出售中國的資產，但他在那裏仍有大量的資產。”

“Like any wise investor, he is diversifying; he is in Europe, the US and other parts of the world. But there is still an incredibly high amount of growth left in China.”

“與所有聰明的投資者一樣，他在進行多元化；他在歐洲、美國以及世界其他地區投資。但中國的增長仍然驚人。”

Many in the wealth management industry say the diversification trend is now unstoppable. “Families are diversifying their assets away from Asia to Europe. This is much broader than just a handful of tycoons in Hong Kong or mainland China,” says Toby Pittaway, who heads the Asia wealth and asset management practice at Oliver Wyman, the consultancy, in Singapore.

許多財富管理行業內的人士表示，多元化如今已成爲不可抗拒的趨勢。奧緯諮詢(Oliver Wyman)駐新加坡的亞洲財富和資產管理業務主管託比•皮特韋(Toby Pittaway)表示：“許多家族正在將資產多元化，減少在亞洲的配置，增加歐洲資產。這種情況是較爲多見的，不僅僅是發生在香港或中國內地的少數幾個大亨身上。”

The shift is accelerating. Given the uncertainty around the renminbi, the Chinese currency, and the future for domestic stocks, more and more Asian investors are seeking advice on global portfolio diversification, he says.

這種轉移正在加速。他說，鑑於人民幣以及中國國內股市前景的不確定性，越來越多的亞洲投資者尋求全球多元化投資的建議。

In particular, Chinese households are looking for ways to exchange renminbi-denominated assets for US dollar holdings, says Ning Zhu, deputy dean at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF). Many, having used up their annual $50,000 foreign currency quotas, are turning to “internet financing companies” specialising in international investments, which are fast becoming China’s new wealth management platforms.

上海高級金融學院(SAIF)副院長朱寧表示，特別是，中國家庭正設法將人民幣計價資產換成美元資產。許多人用光了每人每年5萬美元的外匯購買額度，於是轉向專事國際投資的“互聯網融資公司”，這類公司正迅速成爲中國新的財富管理平臺。

“Chinese wealth is still severely underdiversified in terms of both currency and geographical regions,” says Zhu. “But the market crash has shaken many domestic investors’ confidence in the regulators’ ability to deliver what they once promised.”

朱寧表示：“就貨幣種類和地理區域來說，中國財富多元化的程度仍然非常低。但市場暴跌動搖了國內許多投資者的信心，他們不再相信監管機構有能力兌現曾經許下的承諾。”

International banks are benefiting from this asset shift, he says. While domestic investments are seen as run of the mill, Chinese entrepreneurs and officials are becoming more willing to pay US and Swiss banks in Hong Kong to recommend allocations and give advice on investing overseas.

他說，跨國銀行正受益於這種資產轉移。人們認爲中國境內投資乏善可陳，而中國企業家和官員們越來越願意向香港的美國和瑞士銀行付費獲得資產配置和海外投資方面的建議。

In the past, wealthy Asian customers bought apartments in Hong Kong, Singapore, China and Thailand, says Michel Longhini, chief executive of private banking at Switzerland’s Union Bancaire Privée, which recently bought the Asian division of Coutts, the UK wealth manager.

瑞士聯合私立銀行(Union Bancaire Privée,簡稱UBP)的私人銀行業務首席執行官龍基利(Michel Longhini)表示，在過去，富裕的亞洲客戶在香港、新加坡、中國內地和泰國購買公寓。瑞士聯合私立銀行最近收購了英國財富管理公司Coutts的亞洲分公司。

“Today, these clients are seeing these same kinds of opportunities in Spain, where there is significant rebuilding activity,” he says.

他說：“如今，這些客戶在西班牙看到了同樣的機遇——西班牙正在展開大規模的重建活動。”

Swiss banks are doing brisk business with local clients in Hong Kong, some of whom spread their accounts between up to 40 private banks.

瑞士各銀行與香港本地客戶之間業務繁忙，其中一些客戶在40傢俬人銀行開設了賬戶。

Vincent Duhamel, head of Asia for Lombard Odier, mentions one Hong Kong tycoon, who, despite taking high risks, has built up a successful business over three decades and has recently become a client of the bank, attracted by its safe, traditional image.

隆巴德•奧迪耶(Lombard Odier)的亞洲業務主管樊尚•迪阿梅爾(Vincent Duhamel)舉了一位香港大亨的例子。這位大亨儘管冒了很大的風險，但他在過去30年裏創業成功，最近受到該行安全、傳統形象的吸引而成爲其客戶。

“We told him that we cannot compete with his returns, growing assets 30 per cent each year for 30 years,” says Duhamel. “But we can put a bit aside and give him a solid, but not excessive, return for a long period of time. The only guarantee is that we will still be here 30 years from now, and we will not allow any other activities to distract us.”

迪阿梅爾表示：“我們告訴他，30年來他的資產年均增長30%，我們不可能與他的這種回報率相媲美。但我們可以留出一小部分資產，給他穩定但不會非常高的長期回報。唯一的保證是，30年後我們仍在這裏，我們不會讓其他任何活動分心。”

Asian businesses’ preference for buying property in southern Europe rather than investing their money in Greater China stems partly from the increasing unpredictability of the Chinese authorities.

亞洲企業傾向於購買南歐國家的房地產而不是投資於大中華地區，一部分原因是中國當局越來越不可預測。

“There are too many imponderables when the authorities start to intervene in the market,” says Roger Bacon, the Hong Kong-based head of managed investments for Asia at Citi Private Bank.

花旗私人銀行(Citi Private Bank)駐香港的亞洲優選投資主管羅傑•培根(Roger Bacon)表示：“當中國當局開始在市場上干預時，就有太多不可估量的因素了。”

Recent market meddling includes the notorious “circuit breaker”, a mechanism designed to stop free-falling prices. It was triggered twice in one week at the beginning of January when stocks fell 7 per cent during a trading session. Rather than calming investors, traders panicked even more, the mechanism was suspended and Xiao Gang, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the regulator, tendered his resignation.

最近的市場干預包括鬧得沸沸揚揚的旨在阻止股市暴跌的“熔斷機制”。今年1月初，“熔斷機制”在一個星期內被觸發兩次，股指一個交易日內就暴跌7%。“熔斷機制”未能安撫投資者的情緒，反而讓交易員更加恐慌，隨後該機制被暫停，中國證監會(CSRC)主席肖鋼遞交了辭呈。

This follows last year’s reprimands to ICBC bank staff for hosting extravagant dinners, and the detention of a number of China’s business tycoons “to assist the authorities with their investigations”, according to the official line usually given.

去年中國工商銀行(ICBC)員工因舉辦豪華晚宴而遭到訓誡，而多名中國企業大亨被拘留——根據通常給出的官方口徑——“以協助官方調查”。

“There is a new self-confidence, a badge of honour, mixed with a sense of entitlement among the princelings running China’s private equity funds,” says Anant Deboor, head of the Singapore office at The Partners branding consultancy, of the financial practices of the “Fuerdai”, Mandarin for China’s second generation of wealthy. “But sometimes there is a dark side to this.”

品牌諮詢機構The Partners的新加坡辦公室負責人阿南•德波(Anant Deboor)在談到中國“富二代”的金融活動時表示：“中國運營私人股本基金的‘太子黨’有一種新的自信和榮譽感，伴隨着一種特權意識，但有時也有陰暗的一面。”

Some Asian asset managers, even in the relatively liberal Chinese special administrative region of Hong Kong, are ready to praise the harsh regulatory regime.

一些亞洲資產管理經理，甚至是香港這個相對自由的中國行政特區的資產管理經理，樂於讚揚嚴厲的監管體制。

“Participants in ‘rat trading’ are being locked up,” says Peng Choy, chief executive of Harvest Global Investments, the international arm of one of China’s leading fund houses, referring to the practice of traders buying stocks on their personal accounts before a purchase for their asset management company.

嘉實國際資產管理公司(HGI)行政總裁蔡秉華(Peng Choy)表示：“現在正在抓‘老鼠倉’的參與者。”他指的是交易員利用個人賬戶搶在其所在資產管理公司買入某隻股票之前買入的行爲。香港嘉實國際資產管理公司是中國一家主要基金公司嘉實基金旗下的國際子公司。

“Some people think they can bribe their way up, but that is history and these are the people going to jail today. China is coming out of the old school as more and more international investors invest in the market and expect transparency.”

“一些人認爲他們可以靠賄賂搞定，但那是過去，如今這些人全都會坐牢。隨着越來越多的國際投資者投資於中國市場並希望增強透明度，中國正擺脫過去的做派。”

Choy is a fan of some of the mechanisms designed to control market movements, saying circuit breakers that limit stock price surges prevent retail investors from revelling in, what he calls, “intraday euphoria”.

蔡秉華支持出臺一些旨在限制市場波動的機制，他表示，限制股價劇烈波動的熔斷機制可防止散戶陷於“盤中狂躁”的狀態。

But many commentators consider the regulators of these activities to be out of touch. “Chinese people do not trust the regulators, not due to their lack of fiduciary concern or because they think they are ill-willed, but because they are not educated or connected to markets,” says Charles Chang, a finance professor at SAIF in Shanghai.

但許多評論員認爲這些活動的監管機構不瞭解市場。上海高級金融學院的金融學教授張純信(Charles Chang)表示：“中國人不信任監管機構，這不是因爲後者缺乏信託責任或者是因爲他們認爲監管機構心懷惡意，而是因爲這些監管機構沒有接受過培訓或者與市場脫節。”

He gives the latest austerity drive as an example. Over the past three years, government officials have been banned from taking part in education programmes at both domestic and foreign business schools, which are equated with pursuing a luxury lifestyle, says Chang.

他舉了最新的節儉運動的例子。張純信表示，在過去3年裏，政府官員被禁止參加國內外商學院的培訓項目，這被視爲追求奢華的生活方式。

“The irony is that these are exactly the type of people who need to be educated, but are now disqualified from these programmes. How are they supposed to learn why circuit breakers don’t work or how an IPO is registered and structured?”

“具有諷刺意味的是，恰恰是這些人需要接受培訓，但現在他們卻沒有資格參與這些項目。怎麼能指望他們明白熔斷機制不奏效的原因或者IPO的註冊和架構方式呢？”

This disappointment is echoed by institutional investors such as Alberto Forchielli, a prolific blogger and managing partner at Mandarin Capital, the private equity firm.

高產的博客作者、私人股本公司曼達林基金(Mandarin Capital)管理合夥人傅格禮(Alberto Forchielli)等機構投資者也表達出同樣的失望。

“The Chinese are disenchanted and think that the old bureaucracy that went into retirement with the current government was more capable than the one they have now,” says Forchielli, who describes the Chinese as speculative but prudent investors, prepared to spread their risk internationally. “As long as China offered higher marginal returns, they were willing to twist their portfolio more towards China, but now the game is over.”

傅格禮表示：“中國人感到心灰意冷，認爲本屆政府上臺後退下來的那批官員比在職官僚更有能力。”傅格禮將中國人描述爲投機性強、但謹慎的投資者，期望在國際上分散他們的風險。“只要中國提供更高的邊際回報，他們願意加大對中國的投資組合，但現在遊戲結束了。”

Emigration has also contributed to the diversification trend. Many wealthy Chinese families regard the US, UK or Australian as desirable places to live, offering personal security, better-quality education for their children and a higher standard of healthcare.

移民也加劇了多元化投資趨勢。中國許多富裕家庭認爲美國、英國或澳大利亞是宜居之地，這些地方有人身安全保障、能爲他們的孩子提供更爲優質的教育而且還有更高標準的醫療服務。

Among the most popular emigration routes is the US EB-5 visa, which provides a green card for foreign nationals investing a minimum of $500,000 in US infrastructure projects.

最受歡迎的移民途徑包括美國EB-5簽證項目，此類簽證爲在美國基礎設施項目上資50萬美元以上的外國公民提供綠卡。

“These investment projects are 100 per cent about getting the green card,” says Young Min Ban, director of the Delaware Valley Regional Center.

特拉華山谷區域中心(Delaware Valley Regional Center)總監潘永民表示：“這些投資項目百分百都與獲得綠卡有關。”

Ban spends three months of the year in Asia, working predominantly with mainland Chinese clients he matches to US job-creation projects in infrastructure.

潘永民一年有3個月呆在亞洲，主要是爲中國內地客戶與美國創造就業的基礎設施項目牽線搭橋。

As yet, it appears to be only the younger generation who want to emigrate. “From what I see, older wealthy Chinese do not want to leave. They use the EB-5 scheme to allow their children to continue in higher education,” says Ban, who estimates that there are at least 250,000 students from mainland China in the US. “Successful business people in their 40s like their life in China.”

迄今爲止，似乎只有較爲年輕的一代人才希望移民。潘永民表示：“就我看來，較爲年長的中國富人不想離開。他們利用EB-5項目來讓自己的孩子繼續高等教育。”他估計，美國至少有25萬來自中國內地的學生。“40多歲的成功商人喜歡中國的生活。”

Indeed, the lure of returns from business and investments in China will remain strong. The country has become one of the foremost destinations for Temasek, Singapore’s influential state investment company. Chinese investments account for 27 per cent of its S$266bn ($190bn) portfolio.

實際上，中國商業和投資回報的吸引力依然非常大。中國已經成爲新加坡頗具影響力的國家投資公司淡馬錫(Temasek)最重要的投資目的地之一。在淡馬錫2660億新元（合1900億美元）的投資組合中，投向中國的投資佔到27%。

The fund was previously regarded as championing Singapore’s economy above others. However, some expect China to eventually overtake Singapore as its biggest investment market, buoyed by a new tier of start-up entrepreneurs, including a tech-savvy, returning diaspora.

淡馬錫早先被視爲新加坡經濟的最大支柱。然而，一些人預計中國最終將超過新加坡，成爲該公司最大的投資市場，包括一些技術大拿在內的新的初創企業家階層回到中國對此起到了推動作用。

“We think that China’s innovation, especially the internet business model, has taken the lead on a global scale and new advantages have arisen,” says Wu Yibing, Temasek’s head of China. He cites the “cutting-edge” positions of technology companies such as Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent.

淡馬錫中國區總裁吳亦兵表示：“我們認爲中國的創新（尤其是互聯網商業模式）在全球居於領先位置，而且還出現了新的優勢。”他提到了百度(Baidu)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和騰訊(Tencent)等科技公司的“前沿”地位。

“We believe there will be more and more global corporate champions emerging from China, such as Didi Kuaidi [the smartphone-based taxi service], in which we have invested.”

“我們相信，中國將會出現越來越多的全球冠軍企業，比如我們投資的滴滴快的(Didi Kuaidi)。”滴滴快的是一家基於智能手機的叫車服務公司。

As much as these Asian institutions are searching for the next Facebook in Silicon Valley, they are also keeping their eyes focused on China. Missing the next Li Ka-shing would resonate for generations to come.

這些亞洲機構不僅在硅谷尋找下一個Facebook，而且也繼續關注着中國。錯過下一個李嘉誠會讓幾代人心有慼慼。